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August 31, 2012

Draghi joins Bernanke on the QE wheel.

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , , , — admin @ 4:44 pm

What happens when Draghi joins Bernanke on the QE wheel.

 

Daily Forex Fundamentals – August 30, 2012

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:28 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon

Preliminary GDP Report Shows That U.S. Economy Grew by 1.7%
Japanese Retail Sales Drop by 0.8%
Italian Bond Auctions Scheduled Today

U.S. Dollar (USD)

It looks like better-than-expected data from the U.S. wowed investors on Wednesday and encouraged them to buy the dollar. Consequently, the Greenback ended yesterday’s trading in the green against most of its counterparts. Read more…

Euro (EUR)

After its stellar performance on Tuesday, EUR/USD failed to impress and simply moved ever-so-slowly down the charts yesterday. The pair ended the day at 1.2530, 38 pips lower from its opening price. It seems that market participants are choosing to sit on the sidelines ahead of the Jackson Hole Summit on Friday. Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

Let’s all give the pound a pat on the back for dominating its counterparts despite the lack of economic data from the U.K.! Cable inched 7 pips higher at 1.5831, while Guppy also enjoyed a 33-pip gain. Even EUR/GBP fell by 27 pips! What gives? Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The yen’s scorecard for yesterday’s trading was as mixed as a bag of nuts. While it was able to score an 8-pip win against the euro, it gave up 17 pips to the dollar. Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Due to the contrasting results between U.S. and Canadian economic data, the Loonie was unable to hold its ground versus the haven Greenback. USD/CAD, which had started the day at .9878, was sitting at .9894 by the end of the U.S. trading session. Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Just when you thought the Aussie was about to ride the waves up the charts after its win on Tuesday, it wipes out! AUD/USD ended the day lower yesterday at 1.0356 after starting the day at 1.0380. Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Strike four for NZD/USD! The Kiwi’s luck failed to turn around yesterday as traders continued to price in risk aversion and weak New Zealand economic reports. The pair only reached an intraday high of .8058 before it closed 35 pips lower than its open price. Uh-oh. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

With the KOF economic barometer printing stronger-than-expected, analysts believe that the SNB’s EUR/CHF peg is working. So why did the franc fall against its counterparts? Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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August 30, 2012

Daily Forex Fundamentals – August 29, 2012

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:28 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon

U.S. Preliminary GDP and Pending Home Sales Due Today
KOF Economic Barometer Expected to Print Slightly Higher
Construction Work in Australia Falls by 0.2%

U.S. Dollar (USD)

Not today, boys! The dollar bulls weren’t strong enough to outmuscle the bears yesterday as traders priced in a QE3 announcement from the Fed. Heck, the Greenback fell against the euro, pound, yen, and even the franc! Does this mean that QE3 is a done deal? Read more…

Euro (EUR)

Redemption was the name of the game for the euro yesterday (not in the same way that Metta World Peace changed his name to Military Industrial Complex). EUR/USD skyrocketed higher to end the day 69 pips above its opening price at 1.2568. Meanwhile, after EUR/JPY bottomed at 97.89, it rallied higher to close the day at 98.69. Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

The pound’s price action yesterday was as mixed as a bag of nuts. While it was able to rally versus the safe haven dollar after an extremely disappointing CB Consumer Confidence survey, the pound fell was sold-off against the euro after the successful Spanish debt auction. The pound marked a 31-pip gain over the dollar but also posted a 28-pip loss versus the euro. Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

With barely any economic data from Japan, the yen showed mixed price action against its counterparts. USD/JPY fell by 24 pips to 78.52, but EUR/JPY capped the day at 98.69 after hitting an intraday low of 97.89. Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Loonie continued to get more lovin’ in yesterday’s trading. Before closing the day with a 30-pip win against the dollar at .9878, it was able to tap an intraday high of .9842. Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Phew, that was a close one! The Aussie took a hit from the Greenback early in the day, but AUD/USD was able to finish the day up 36 pips from its intraday low. How did the Aussie bulls do it? Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Due to bad news from Australia, NZD/USD was unable to recover from its decline and actually extended its losing streak to three yesterday. NZD/USD, which began the day at .8086, found itself suffering at .8046 by the end of the U.S. trading session. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

The Swiss franc was able to stage a nice 46-pip run versus the dollar yesterday, thanks to a highly successful Spanish bond auction. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is believed to have accumulated all the euros that it intends to, and will now ease on defending the EUR/CHF peg. Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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August 29, 2012

Daily Forex Fundamentals – August 28, 2012

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:27 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon

CB Consumer Confidence Survey Expected to Tick Slightly Lower
Gfk German Consumer Climate to Fall to 5.8 from 5.9

U.S. Dollar (USD)

Amid the very light economic calendar in yesterday’s trading session, the Greenback was able to come out victorious. It edged higher against most major currencies, rallying 13 pips versus the euro, 22 pips versus the pound, and 10 pips versus the yen. Can the Greenback continue its streak? Read more…

Euro (EUR)

Not today, boys! For the second trading day in a row the euro bears outmuscled the bulls as a disappointing German report got mixed in with risk aversion in markets. EUR/USD settled with a 15-pip drop after hitting an intraday high at 1.2537. Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

Where are all the pound bulls at? The currency sustained another loss against the dollar yesterday. GBP/USD closed the day 22 pips below its opening price at 1.5793. That extends the pound’s losing streak to three days! Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

Due to the absence of economic catalysts, most of the U.K. in holiday, the yen was completely directionless yesterday. It traded mixed across the board, gaining slightly versus the euro and pound but losing against the dollar. Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Back-to-back win, baby! With no major data released from Canada and the U.S., the Loonie traders traded on expectations for the week ahead. USD/CAD fell by another 10 pips yesterday as it finished at .9908. What’s in store for the oil-related comdoll today? Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Strike three! For the third straight day, the Aussie suffered the wrath of the Greenback bulls. AUD/USD was sold-off yesterday, falling to 1.0370 after it had opened the Asian session at 1.0416. Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

The Kiwi just can’t get enough air! It failed to fly up the charts yesterday, scoring another loss against the dollar. NZD/USD ended the day at .8086 after opening at .8117. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

The franc joined its European counterparts in the losers’ bench yesterday. USD/CHF traded higher, after opening at .9599. By the end of the New York session, the franc had incurred an 11-pip loss at .9610. Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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August 28, 2012

GOP – G Old Parity.

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: — admin @ 4:43 pm

TMM don’t think we are going to get any major new direction in markets until next week, which really isn’t that surprising a view as Jackson Hole and the European “6th of September” event are so well flagged. However we still smile at how easily the market can switch from panic to subservient minion

“Please take a seat Mr Panic, Mr Crisis is busy at the moment but will see you in September. Could I get you a coffee while you wait”?  
“Err. ok yes please. Oh is that a magazine on China on the coffee table?”
“Yes, and please feel free to leaf through the “Fiscal Cliff Weekly” or perhaps “The Australian Mining Review”, you may find them an interesting distraction”
“Oooh yes ..   err sorry .. Why am I here?

Indeed Dr. Aghi sure is busy – ECB’S DRAGHI WON’T BE ATTENDING JACKSON HOLE FORUM, *DRAGHI NOT ATTENDING DUE TO WORK LOAD IN THE COMING DAYS – TMM are hoping that the work load involves fixing the decals to his model of a European rescue package rather just not being arsed to go to a forum where everyone will just tell him how to do his job. 

Meanwhile the US is getting even more embroiled in a debate as to by how far the Republicans are going to win without noticing the absurdity of some of their  “And I’ll tell ya something else” policies being drawn up on a napkin at 2am. The latest being for a return to the Gold Standard.  We’ve all heard the rants from semi-literate candidates complaining that “the government is manipulating prices” and that “we should privatise money”. But TMM thought they were the preserve of the loony right, because we cannot for the life of us understand why anyone would want to return to the days of pro-cyclical monetary and fiscal policy. You know – the sort that tends to blow up emerging market  countries and Peripheral Europe, amongst other things.

It’s not like the development of economic policymaking over the last 80yrs was dreamed up purely to depreciate the dollar. In fact, despite all the FX volatility of the past 30yrs, the real trade weighted dollar exchange rate  sits only 15% below its pre-1971 delinkage from Gold, a level it fell to by 1973 in the post-Bretton Woods adjustment.

The presence of the US’s elastic money supply has greatly dampened economic volatility, something that would be greatly amplified by the necessity of pro-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy within the rigidities of a Gold Standard. It is thus far from obvious that the current ability of countries like the US and UK have suffered from having such an economic policy framework.

Those making the calls for a return to the Gold Standard clearly haven’t read their history well enough to recall that *all* economic entities suffered from the frequent and severe depressions and financial panics resulting from the lack of a lender of last resort and elastic currency. For all its failings, the study of economics has shown that counter-cyclical economic policies are the most successful way of a) maintaining stable but low inflation [there is a good deal of evidence that low but positive inflation is optimal] and (b) reducing economic and financial volatility. Such a framework is clearly not sufficient, as the excesses of the financial sector over the past decade or so demonstrate, but it is a good place to start, rather than throwing out the hard-won policy lessons of the past 80 years. 

Indeed, where countries have gone wrong in the past decade it is because they have run pro-cyclical policies of the sort a gold standard would imply. In the case of the UK, running too loose fiscal policy. In the US, running too-loose monetary policy in the 2003-2005 period, and too-tight monetary policy since 2006 and in Peripheral Europe where (a bit of an over-generalisation) both fiscal *and* monetary policy were too loose in the run up to the crisis, and now both are too tight.

And this is where TMM strongly agree with John Taylor. Where policy has departed from rule-based prescriptions, problems have developed. But then what can you expect from the bass player of Duran Duran.

Charts to Start the Week

Filed under: Technical Analysis — Tags: , , — admin @ 3:06 am

Good morning. Euro holds gains around $1.2500 at time of writing and more upside action is likely, as next barrier is formed at $1.2700. EURUSD Market sentiment: intraday – slightly bearish, short-term – bullish Potential trade strategy: to buy dips at 1.2440/50, stop below 1.2400, target at 1.2650 hourly chart: AUDCAD(…)Read the rest of Charts Read More

The post Charts to Start the Week appeared first on innerfx.com.


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Daily Forex Fundamentals – August 27, 2012

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:29 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon

U.K. on a Summer Bank Holiday
German IfO Business Climate due today

U.S. Dollar (USD)

Finally! After giving up pips to its counterparts one day after another, the dollar managed to pare some of its losses on Friday. EUR/USD closed the week at 1.2512, 50 pips below Friday’s opening price. Meanwhile, GBP/USD was down 56 pips for the day at 1.5804. Read more…

Euro (EUR)

Oh snap, did the euro just break its winning streak against the Greenback? While the common currency barely moved against the pound and the yen, EUR/USD finished the day 50 pips lower than its open price. What gives? Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

After its impressive performance during the first half of the week, Cable fell considerably short last Friday. From its day open price at 1.5860, it fell 56 pips lower to end the U.S. trading session at 1.5805. What caused the decline? Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

USD/JPY was finally able to recover last Friday after it had lost for 4 consecutive days. The pair closed at 78.70, 25 pips higher from where it had begun the day. Is a bullish reversal in the works? Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Loonie bulls were able to breathe a collective sigh of relief last Friday as USD/CAD ended its 3-day winning streak by stepping back by 20 pips to .9916. No report came out from Canada, so what influenced the Loonie lovin’? Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Despite an upbeat speech from the RBA head honcho, the Aussie still scored its second straight loss to the dollar on Friday. AUD/USD closed the day at 1.0406 after starting the day at 1.0439. Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Despite the better-than-expected trade balance, the high-yielding Kiwi was unable to continue its rally last Friday. In fact, the Kiwi was sold-off, closing the day 19 pips lower from its opening price. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

On Friday, the Swiss franc lost all of the pips it gained on Thursday faster than an avalanche in the Swiss alps. USD/CHF traded higher immediately after opening at .9561. By the New York session close, the pair was up 36 pips above its starting price. Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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August 27, 2012

Holiday Poem – Debt Dealers

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , , , — admin @ 4:43 pm

Frantic room of ribald chatter
Don’t slip behind, keep up ahead.
Use pilot reflex, jockey balance
As prices flash or you’ll be dead.

Strangled as the sucker young
Drag up the old trunk’s flanks
Steal the light as ivy grows
Stifle off the “old world” banks.

Mighty trees rise high in forests
Compete for light in canopy.
Favours those who fight the hardest
Through their ingenuity.

We are smart but they’re connected
Loyal to themselves they be
Gladiators all where teams blur
One for all and all for me!

IQs torn from worthy pursuits
Trained to claw the smallest gain
In a way that should be simple
Lost in its own complex game.

Creating worth that’s all fictitious
Measured not on human scale
Electrons storing information
Systems built, yet set to fail.

And when they do the whole World wails
Blame to those that gave it thee
“Not my fault I squandered freely”
No responsibility!

Same with nations scattered South,
Greece and Spain and Italy,
“We just borrowed what they gave us
T’was Germany, not me, you see”

Drug dealer guile, the lending men.
But if the fix is stopped by Merkel
Should dealer give or addict turkey?
Break the evil debt drug’s circle.

All are guilty, State and system.
Yes you and me and he and she.
Sucked in to party, now we’re paying
Heads sore with past insanity

August 26, 2012

Weekend (mini) Webinar: Trading Styles

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 3:42 am

Today in the Forex in the Morning chat, I had a question about “scalping” and how that fits in to a trader’s strategy. Ah, not an easy question when trying to categorize what market trend “scalping” fits into but it is a style that many traders employ so in this video I explain what it is and what environment it is best suited for!

There are four strategies I use. Three are “core” strategies and one is “aggro” or aggressive. Momentum, Swing, and Trend Reversal strategies are “core” while Distribution Fades (playing inside an wide trading range) is aggro.

The bottom line however is that underlying market psychology or market trend dictates which I will even consider.

Enjoy the video, it runs about seven minutes.

Questions? Comments. Leave ’em here at the blog!

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August 25, 2012

Daily Forex Fundamentals – August 24, 2012

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:28 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon

U.S. Durable Goods Orders on Deck
U.K. GDP Projected to Be Revised to -0.5% from -0.7%

U.S. Dollar (USD)

The Greenback was generally weaker yesterday as the dovish FOMC meeting minutes continued to weigh down heavily on the currency. The U.S. dollar index which tracks the performance of the Greenback versus other major currencies fell for the fourth day in a row to 81.44. Read more…

Euro (EUR)

Way to go, euro! For the third trading day in a row, the euro bulls beat the bears as they pushed EUR/USD higher in the charts. Should they thank the euro zone’s economic reports, or the QE3 speculations in markets? Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

After racing up the charts like a Ferrari in Wednesday’s trading, it looks like the pound ran out of fuel on the charts yesterday. GBP/USD rallied above 1.5900 but didn’t find enough demand at the major psychological handle. By the end of the New York session, the pair was 7 pips below its opening price at 1.5860. Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

Due to the absence of market-moving data, the yen’s price action yesterday was as mixed as a bag of Trailmix! While the yen ended the day higher against the dollar and the pound, it fell short versus the euro. Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Tough luck, Loonie bulls! The Canadian dollar wasn’t spared from the scrilla bulls’ wrath yesterday as they bought the Greenback against the comdolls. USD/CAD rose for one more day thanks to mixed QE3 speculations. Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

After three consecutive victorious days, the Aussie finally ended yesterday with a loss. AUD/USD closed the U.S. trading session at 1.0439, 62 pips lower than its opening price that day. Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

The Kiwi was no exception to Newton’s Law of Gravity in yesterday’s trading. NZD/USD went up to an intraday high of .8187 only to end the day back to where it opened at .8128. Oh well! I guess what goes up really must come down. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

Make that 4 days in a row! The Swiss franc extended its gains against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. USD/CHF dropped from its opening price of .9592 and traded all the way down to .9539 where it bottomed. At the end of the day, the franc was able to score a 31-pip gain as the pair closed at .9561. Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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