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February 28, 2013

It’s How You Tell ‘Em

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , — admin @ 4:42 pm

TMM had another bout of road rage this morning. Fortunately the cause and target of the rage wasn’t another road user, rather the quality of news reportage emanating from their car radio on the way to work. Don’t worry, TMM are calm level headed rational beings who are not inclined to go “Falling Down” on you, but the last 36 hours exposure to mainstream reporting got us pretty close. TMM’s poor car radio is beginning to resemble an old dog toy having been bombarded and cratered with any loose object to be found in the door pocket.

We weren’t in the best of moods to start with, having endured a day of “Europe is Doomed” being boomed at us from every Orwellian speaker lodged in our hi-tech lives. This was followed on return home by a Channel 4 News story of 17 year olds falling down a legal loophole in UK police stations. A very valid subject and one that needs to be discussed, but preferably discussed by experts. We say experts, because radio and TV news programs have developed the appalling habit of interviewing victims (or the relatives of victims if the victims are deceased) as if they were the experts.

Whilst we understand that victims have certainly experienced the consequences of whatever they have suffered they are rarely expert into the causes (just as if TMM wander into the road after a beer and get hit by a bus it doesn’t make us experts in bus mechanics, rubber friction coefficients, traffic law or alcohol/neurone transmission mechanisms). Unsurprisingly such an interview results in an emotion laden, one sided tragedy with little true insight to the issues. But then it gets worse, having used psychological anchoring to pin the listener or viewer to this base norm of expertise, the journalist will then most likely swing to a higher authority on the issue, normally with great gravitas. However, far from being an expert, this is just another journalist, introduced as “our legal/business/foreign correspondent” or some such.

TMM are opined that journalists are there to report, not give opinion as their opinion on non-journalistic issues is of as much or little importance as any other non-expert.

Financial punditry has been full of it too. The BBC have elevated (up their own elevator of self-promotion) the likes of journalist Robert Peston to “financial guru” and their economics editor, journalist Stephanie Flanders, to “Keansian” level. CNBC is also clearly full of anchors quizzing sub reporters and interviewing their own anchors to pad out the usual faces of punditry.

This evening we got around to searching to see if anyone else has remarked on this annoying trend and unsurprisingly found we aren’t alone, and found much better analysis of what we are talking about. Interestingly we found this post by blogger George Snell makes the point very well, after he originally commented on the issue here, where he mentions the dangers of the Echo Chamber, “where journalists simply rely on each other for perspectives on the news. The insular mentality of “It must be true because I heard it from another journalist.””

David Donovan, goes further here citing cases in Australia and points to the high frequency of journalists appearing on Q+A sessions and even analyses journalist’s twitter profiles concluding that “Australia’s haughty “hackus majesticus” (with a few exceptions) typically only follow other members of the same, or similar, species.”

So why is TMM veering away from markets into the state of journalism? Well because we feel that this style of reporting not only annoys us immensely, it is undermining information quality not only of main stream press but also in markets. We all know how fast a piece of information can go around a market (especially in todays “cut and paste” world) and we also know that each participant in the market, certainly on the sell side, will look for any form of corroboration of a news item, idea or interpretation of a news item before sending it on, reinforced, down the next wire.

Bloomberg and Reuters headlines are never challenged and whilst they stay just facts or quotes all well and good. But the problem creeps in when a market moves and a reason is required. As any journalist, analyst or sell side sales jockey knows, when asked why something has happened a reason has to be found, even if the most apt answer is “I dunno”. Of course most market moves are basically down to “some one/people sold/bought a large amount of it” from there on it’s normally a guess as to why they did that. Any sensible player in the market that has just sold or bought a large amount will actually be wanting both his actions and his motives kept as quiet as possible so will be reluctant to shed light on the issue. But the game of hunt is on and correlation is the usual weapon employed.

This example of journo-escalation is of course completely fictitious and bears no resemblance to reality or real characters.

Harry Hedge-Fund – “Close my gold short out, I’m off skiing and cant be bothered to watch it”.

Soon on US Financial TV –

Rick Spleen – “Gold has seen a big rally today, let’s hear from our correspondent Jeff on the floor (note being on the floor implies he works on the floor – wrong) – Hi Jeff I see that gold has gone up today. What’s moved it?”

Jeff Epiglotis – Hi Rick yes, stocks fell in europe as the dollar fell as NFP printed low as the sun rose in the east and gold is up. But let’s hear more from our economics correspondent, Scott?

Scott Tibia – Hi yes I agree with Jeff, European stocks fell and so gold went up. Here is a graph.

Rick Spleen – So there you have it. Everyone we have spoken to tells us that gold went up because of European concerns.

Next morning on UK’s BBC Radio 4 Today program –
John H – Gold has risen overnight, a traditional measure of confidence in governments. Does this reflect on the UK government’s economic policy? Lets hear from our own Robert P.

Robert P – Weeeell, It looks as though gold, a traditional indicator of financial stress, has risen overnight in the US and our contacts there tell us it’s due to concerns over Europe where the Italian elections are in turmoil with a rise in the popularity of anti-government parties. Which could be considered similar to the rise of UKIP in the UK. But let’s hear from our economics editor Stephanie

Stephanie – Yes it’s true that UKIP has garnered a greater share of the vote in the UK implying government policy is receiving a resounding vote of no confidence. Gold prices traditionally reflect confidence in both governments and the value of their money, which of course is currently being devalued in the UK through QE. The rally in the gold price is therefore consistent with markets losing faith in Osborne’s policies and in the government’s current economic policy of cuts and austerity.

And from there on the self-feeding frenzy of speculation/fact conversion  picks up with the press quoting the BBC and then sell side cut and pasting these press links on to buy side. “Facts” have grown to fit any particular view without one “expert” being involved.

It is at this point that TMM’s car radio receives another packet of mints in the tuner.

* Foot note , they’ve just done it again – Radio 4 – Rocket launcher found in Northern ireland – Interview with random folk in street “its terrible”,  followed by an expert – the Sunday Times Security correspondent. 

Daily Forex Fundamentals – February 27, 2013

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:27 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon?

U.K. Second GDP Estimate on Deck
No Change in Japan’s Fundamentals?

U.S. Dollar (USD)

After its spectacular performance on Monday, the safe haven Greenback surprisingly found itself relatively flat against other major currencies yesterday. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the currency against the other majors, mainly moved within a tight horizontal range. It started the day at 82.15 and ended the day slightly higher at 82.35. Read more…

Euro (EUR)

Make that back-to-back! Once again, risk sentiment soured on the euro, as EUR/USD closed 67 pips lower at 1.3054, while EUR/JPY ended at 120.04, down 147 pips from its opening price. Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

The pound fell down the charts in a less-graceful manner than JLaw’s trip at the Oscar’s. GBP/USD finished yesterday’s trading 58 pips lower at 1.5131 while GBP/JPY was down 155 pips at 139.12. Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

Well, well, well, it looks like the yen is starting to gain some bullish momentum. For the second straight day, the low-yielding yen was able to come out on top versus both the safe haven dollar and the euro yesterday. USD/JPY ended the day 66 pips lower while EUR/JPY dropped a whopping 147 pips. The yen was considered as one of the best performing currencies. Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Is that a doji I see on the daily chart of USD/CAD? Could this be the start of a comeback for the Canadian dollar? Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

For the second consecutive day, AUD/USD suffered the wrath of the bears. The pair performed poorly as it fell to 1.0234 from its opening price at 1.0284. AUD/USD mainly struggled as political uncertainty in Italy persisted. Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Look out below! The Kiwi crashed down the charts following disappointing figures from New Zealand and a decline in commodity prices. NZD/USD finished at .8254 after starting the day at .8368. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

Boring! The franc spent most of yesterday’s trading chillin’ like ice cream fillin’ around .9300 against the dollar. By the New York session close, USD/CHF held steady at .9321, up from its opening price at .9306. Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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February 27, 2013

Daily Forex Fundamentals – February 26, 2013

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:28 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon?

Fed Chairman Bernanke To Testify Today
Berlusconi Making A Comeback?
BOE Inflation Report Hearings Start At 10:00 am GMT

U.S. Dollar (USD)

Although it scored losses against the yen and the pound, I think you can still say that the dollar had a good day. After all, EUR/USD managed to closed below the 1.3100 handle for the first time in 7 weeks. The dollar also scored wins against all the comdolls. Read more…

Euro (EUR)

Oh, the pain! The euro was subjected to an intense beating in yesterday’s trading session as the latest results of the Italian elections showed that there is a high possibility that we’ll see a hung parliament. EUR/USD is now sitting at 1.3079, 150 pips lower from its week open price. Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

After gapping lower to start the week, GBP/USD managed to gain some steam and partially close the gap. The pair finished 95 pips higher to end the day at 1.5188, leaving it around 50 pips below last week’s close. Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

Guess who flexed its muscles yesterday? The yen did. Its safe haven reputation was highlighted following the initial poll results of the Italian elections. USD/JPY closed at 92.58 after opening at 94.71. It dropped even further to 90.92 early in today’s Tokyo session! Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Due to the political risks associated with the Italian elections, risk aversion was once again in vogue yesterday. As a result, the Canadian dollar, like most major currencies, gave up a lot of ground to the safe haven U.S. dollar and the low-yielding yen. USD/CAD, for instance, ended the day at 1.0265, 41 pips higher from where it was during the Asian trading session. Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

The lack of economic reports from Australia made the Aussie vulnerable to market sentiment. Unfortunately for the comdoll, it was hit by a double whammy of bad news. AUD/USD finished the day with a 29-pip loss at 1.0283. Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Amazing how everything can change in the blink of an eye! After it looked as if the Kiwi was going to soar to new highs, NZD/USD came crashing down near the end of the New York session, eventually closing at .8368, up just 4 pips for the day and down 50 pips from its highs for the day. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

With a sudden surge of risk aversion hitting the markets, the franc followed the euro’s lead, as it took a hit versus the Greenback. After hitting an intraday low at .9231, USD/CHF eventually ended the day at .9306, up 21 pips from its opening price. Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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February 26, 2013

Italian Job.

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , — admin @ 4:42 pm

There you go. Spain last time, Italy this time. When you are looking for a “something” to catalyse a positional shake down you really can’t do better than giving the Euro-periphery a shake and seeing what comes out.

TMM are still asking themselves the question “Is this a new theme?” or is this still a “positional shake down within the underlying trend?”

Europe – Italy. The noise function is off the scale with media and market commentary screaming return to Eurodoom. As ever, those furthest from the event end up reacting to the noise rather than the reality because we have noted that markets work a reverse physics, where sound travels faster than light as enlightenment arrives a good while after the noise. “Rest of the World” do seem to be playing this harder than Europe itself. We note that overnight European and  US equity futures traded pretty flat whilst Asia went through its catch up phase, leaving us thinking that noise vs price is, at least in the short term, overdone with the Western markets more likely to bounce from opening lows than extend yesterday’s momentum. 

Is Italy important?  It’s certainly a wake up call rumble from the dormant Euro-volcano but we do think that Italy is going to drag Euro back to 2012. If the interface of Euro contagion is based on Italy’s commitment to Europe combined with the management of debt load via internal economic management or European support then perhaps we should break it down. 

Commitment of Italy to internal debt management – Italy’s primary surplus of 5% of GDP puts it in good stead. Its long term debt structure is well known and short of a market attack, which we think would be repelled by Dr. Aghi, we see long term Italian debt remaining as taboo to shorter term trading as is US and UK  debt. Will the new government mean new change? Well the very fact that one of the complaints is that no legislation can be passed may well mean that a move from existing policy cannot be implemented. Not all bad news.  

Commitment to Europe – The only hint of anything apart form general support for Euro membership comes from Grillo’s comment that discussing it is not taboo. The success of Grillo as a whole is a vote against the current structure of Italian politics as much as it is pure anti Europe and TMM don’t see a strip down and rebuild of the machine of Italian politics as a bad thing. In fact we have written various posts questioning the divergence of career politicians from both roles of representation and decision making. TMM hope the grey machine of Brussels is taking note. However, we digress. Whilst Europe is still seen as the hand that ultimately feeds, TMM don’t see Italian politics doing any more to rock the boat than cause a enough ripples to persuade its occupants to sit down and shut up.  

Commitment of Europe to Italy – As an Italy departure is the nuclear option we can hardly see the self-serving Eurocrats pressing the assured mutual destruction button. What is more, with Merkle coming up to elections and the German opposition more pro-Europe than her, there is probably less likelihood of her playing hardball this time over austerity demands. We are still miles from needing the “Dr. Agahi Put” and even further off the Greek scenario. So TMM are not concerned as the current wave  hasn’t even reached the first Euro-defences.

So if we are not as concerned about Europe as the media is (cue more disgust at media hyperbole. c.f. UK debt downgrade) then should we be buying Euro stuff? Very short term yes and we have just whilst the noise dies down and marries back to price action again (see above). But for the bigger picture on global markets we see the Italy story as another seed crystal dropped into the supersaturated solution of confident longs.  Last week the Fed tripped the US but the markets staggered to their feet and now Italy has delivered an upper cut that saw the market hit the canvas last night. As it now staggers around drunkenly, we don’t think it would take much of tap from any bad Asian news to see it down and out. 

It was interesting to see Japan try and deliver that blow last night. Jpy retracement fitted into the general positional rather than thematic shake down and as we are judging short term noise to enlightenment signal stretched we are closing out half of our short NZD/JPY and MXN/JPY. In equities we continue to sit on our hands enjoying them getting cheaper.

Daily Forex Fundamentals – February 25, 2013

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:27 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon?

All eyes on Italian parliamentary election
Ben Bernanke set to testify this week

U.S. Dollar (USD)

After enjoying wild moves over the past few days, the markets took a breather and slowed things down to end the week. EUR/USD and USD/JPY hardly budged from their opening prices, as the dollar lost 10 pips against the euro and gained 30 pips against the yen. Will it shake things up again this week? Read more…

Euro (EUR)

Thanks to some good economic data, the euro was able to avoid another day in the red. EUR/USD stayed in consolidation and eventually ended the day at 1.3179, up 9 pips from its opening price. Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

Ugh, so much for a comeback! The pound was unable to extend its rally against the dollar on Friday as it finished the day unchanged at 1.5241. Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

Yen crosses didn’t move much last Friday, but boy did they come to life over the weekend! What caused these pairs to surge up the charts?? Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Make that a clean sweep! The CAD bulls got creamed last week, as USD/CAD closed higher every single day! USD/CAD finished Friday at 1.0230, up 26 pips from its opening price. When will the bleeding stop?! Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Aussie bulls were in total control of AUD/USD from the minute the markets opened! With much help from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, they took the pair from an opening price of 1.0234 straight up to 1.0321. Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Score one for the Kiwi! Despite the lack of economic reports from New Zealand, the comdoll still managed to finish the day in the green. NZD/USD was up 55 pips from its opening price at .8381 by the end of the New York session. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

The Swiss franc merely traded within its range against the dollar on Friday. Boring! USD/CHF bounced off support around Thursday’s low at .9290 and got rejected at resistance around .9330. By the end of the New York session, the pair settled at .9307, 12 pips below its opening price. Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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February 25, 2013

“When I was a Lad” (Carney Style).

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , — admin @ 4:43 pm

After prompting from a reader and getting bored of guessing Italian election outcomes, we have adapted Messrs Gilbert and Sullivan’s “When I was a Lad” from “HMS Pinafore”. Instead of the Queen’s Navy, we think the B.o.E is more topical. 

“When I was a Lad” (Carney Style)

 When I was a lad I served a term
As a junior trader at the Goldman firm.
I cleaned the books and soon wasn’t poor,
As I traded debt and made the profits soar.

Chorus.
He traded debt and made the profits soar.

I traded debt so carefully
That now I am the Governor of the B.o.E

Chorus.
He traded debt so carefully
That now he is the Governor of the B.o.E

As trading boy I made such a fee
That they gave me a post in the ministry
As Canadian minister with no recourse
I introduced a tax on income trusts at source.

Chorus.
He introduced a tax on income trusts at  source

I introduced the tax when at the ministry
So now I am the Governor of the B.o.E

Chorus.
He introduced the tax when at the ministry
So now he is the Governor of the B.o.E

In raising tax  I made such a name
That a central bank governor I soon became 
I saw a crash, chose policies to suit
To prevent Canada from going destitute.

Chorus.
To prevent Canada from going go destitute. 

I  passed so well through the G.F.C 
That now I am the Governor of the B.o.E

Chorus.
He passed so well through the G.F.C 
That now he is the Governor of the B.o.E

Of Central bank skills I acquired such a grip
That they took me into the partnership.Bernanke, Merve and then Draghi
All showed me the way to play the great Q.E.
 
Chorus.
All showed me the way to play the great Q.E.
 
Balance Sheet Constraint won’t apply to Me
Now that I am the Governor of the B.o.E

Chorus.
Balance Sheet Constraint won’t apply to he
Now that he is the Governor of the B.o.E.

I grew so known that I was sent
By a select committee into Parliament.
I always voted for the strong growth call,
I never thought of thinking of inflation at all.

Chorus.
He never thought of thinking of inflation at all.

I thought so little, they rewarded me
By making me the Governor of the B.o.E

Chorus.
He thought so little, they rewarded he
By making him the Governor of the B.o.E

Now bankers all, (don’t look at me Moody)
If you want to rise to the top of the tree,
If your soul isn’t bothered by a ratings fall
Be careful to be guided by this golden rule.

Chorus.
Be careful to be guided by this golden rule.

Preach growth, restraint yet huge Q.E. 
And you all may be Governors of the B.o.E

Chorus.
Preach growth, restraint yet huge Q.E.
And you all may be Governors of the B.o.E

February 23, 2013

Daily Forex Fundamentals – February 21, 2013

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:29 am

What’s on the Economic Horizon?

GBP Drops to Record Lows
Euro Zone PMIs Scheduled Today
U.S. Manufacturing, Home Sales, and Inflation Numbers On Tap

U.S. Dollar (USD)

What a comeback! The dollar reminded the markets who’s boss yesterday as it dominated the charts and came out on top of the pip hill. At the end of the day, it had gained 104 pips against the euro, 180 pips against the pound, and 40 pips against the yen. Read more…

Euro (EUR)

Geronimooo! The euro plunged on the charts faster than a Britney Spears’ hit. EUR/USD closed below the 1.3300 handle yesterday, closing with a 103-pip loss. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY was down at 124.28 from its open price of 125.29 by the end of the New York session. Read more…

British Pound (GBP)

The pound posted another HUGE loss against the dollar as GBP/USD came crashing down to 1.5245 to post a 180-pip drop. Will traders ever get tired of selling the pound?? Read more…

Japanese Yen (JPY)

The yen’s price action yesterday was a mixed bag. While it was able to gain versus both the euro and the pound, it lost against the safe haven dollar. The yen’s final score card was as follows: -45 pips versus the euro, -108 pips against the pound, and +18 pips versus the dollar. Read more…

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Loonie was no match to the dollar in yesterday’s trading. But it wasn’t any surprise. Heck, a less-dovish-than-expected FOMC meeting minutes, what did you expect? USD/CAD finished the day higher at 1.0169 from 10.0164. Read more…

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Talk about a wipeout! Just when we all thought the Aussie was on its way up to the charts, the demand for the dollar surged! AUD/USD finished the day lower at 1.0256 after opening at 1.0354. Read more…

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Talk about a one-way street! Sellers were in complete control of NZD/USD as RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s speech set the tone for Kiwi trading early in the day. It led to huge losses for the comdoll, which finished 141 lower against the Greenback. Read more…

Swiss Franc (CHF)

You win some, you lose some! The Swissy learned that lesson the hard way as it gained 30 pips against the euro but lost 50 pips to the dollar. Which way will it go today? Read more…

Bonnie and Clyde, peanut butter and jelly, Justin Bieber and his hair. Some things just go well together.

In forex trading, you get better odds at securing pips when your fundamental analysis is complemented by technical analysis.

Head on to Big Pippin’s Daily Chart Art for some pip-locking technical setups!

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February 22, 2013

Daily Forex Fundamentals – February 22, 2013

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , — admin @ 1:28 am

February 21, 2013

Thursday Musings

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , — admin @ 4:43 pm

The Fed might not have used the I-word  but their discussions behind the scenes towards continued QE must have involved it. We would like to think that they were too concerned about market reaction if they had used the i-word and judging by the reaction received to the mention of “tail” they were right. We can’t say we are unhappy with the market response and do see it as the catalyst to moves that have gone global and multi-asset. All reinforced by China’s comments on slowing the housing markets in overheating cities extending the pressure on yesterday’s commodity moves and this morning’s European data separately undermining Europe. So that’s three out of three for negatives from the major global regions. 

This is  enough for us to stay seated in the bus stop letting a few more pass before getting back on. Do we go short Equities? Not yet. We still want to buy at some point and don’t want to go against our core theme. Buying cheaper will be enough for us as this still looks at best like a 5% correction possibility in SPX rather than a major new bear phase.  However we are looking at tactical shorts in other recent popular trades as the “3 out of 3” should cause more of a shake down. So what else has been complacent consensus for the past few weeks? In FX land you cant get much more consensus than short yen and, on the long side, we would suggest that NZD and MXN must be up there with the best so we have taken speculative shorts in NZD/JPY and MXN/JPY (again) expecting this general correction to continue. 

Is this a new theme? Whilst the breakeven prices haven’t really moved it does look as though the speculative inflation expectation trades in other markets are unwinding. Rather than a big new theme developing it so far appears to be positional as we drift back to a less exuberant trajectory in growth and inflation expectations. Equities off, metals off, oil off, USD up everywhere (except vs JPY which is basically a loaded trade) and finally Gold. Each morning we hear how heavily the Chinese are buying and every morning it falls harder. Not a bullish sign. Picking a right level for gold is pure supply, demand and, more importantly, the psychology of price anchoring, so rather than pick a target level, TMM would rather just predict “it continues to fall”.   

In the UK the mighty pound is suffering a right Mervynating. to the point that we think that Merve may well have a Harold Wilson moment -“From now the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other currencies. It does not mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.”  ( Harold Wilson 1967).  Which has put GBP only just behind JPY in the league of currencies to sell. Very “Macro 1990s”.

Now back to Europe. It’s nearly March and March has historically seen the start of Euro-season, where happy hunters flock to the European bond markets to blast away at plumped up and overfed Euro-birds.  

Whilst today’s focus has been on French and German PMIs, which in TMMs eyes may look headline soft, but do contain some structurally encouraging signs, there are signs that stresses are building again. The peripheral bond markets continue to underperform. 

The real shocker that seems to be sneaking under the radar is what’s happening in Holland. This morning’s collapse in consumer confidence to -44 from -35 leaves it at it’s lowest level ever since the series began in 1986. House prices are accelerating downwards (-9/6 y/y from last months -6.3% y/y) and the unemployment rate rising. This leads TMM to wonder whether we are seeing Holland move from core and periphery. It’s interesting to note that if there is one country which should give Fred the Shred (of RBS fame) asylum, should he lose his false nose and beard and be hounded out of wherever he is, it should be Holland. Without his wonderfully timed cash purchase of ABN, they would have had sovereign debt/GDP ratio roughly 10% higher. He saved their arses.

With that we will leave you as we return to watching the screens turn redder.

The details of my GBP/NZD Short & How I trade economic events explained!

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , , , , — admin @ 3:41 am

This morning in today’s chat room I was reviewing the positions I entered on the kiwi weakness triggered by a handful of RBNZ Gov Wheeler’s statement.

Yes, sound bites can move a market! But more importantly I outlined the process I go through to see if the volatility is something that leads to a trade entry. You see I am not trading the volatility for the sake of the movement alone – I am MORE interested in where that price movement leads the pair.

In this case it triggered three entries: The GBP/NZD, AUD/NZD,and NZD/JPY.

I get into all the details of how you can understand these events and set up trades accordingly. Here’s the video:

If you like this video I have another for you: Are the pairs you choose set up to win?

Questions?
Comments.

Leave ’em here at the blog.

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