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April 30, 2014

W(h)ither the US consumer?

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , — admin @ 4:42 pm

Well, the “Super Tuesday” gig worked for yet another week, albeit modestly.  Macro Man has therefore updated his chart accordingly.  Astute readers may have detected something of a theme running through yesterday’s set of questions, a theme that has been preying upon his mind in recent weeks: w(h)ither the US consumer?

It is taken almost as axiomatic by some of the lazy sunbathers that the consumer will enjoy a splendid spring (should it ever bother to arrive) following the long, cold winter.   To be sure, some of the banks with a strong retail presence have duly noted an uptick in credit card spending, which likely indicates some sort of bounceback.   But how durable is such a consumption uptick, anyways?

Generally speaking, consumer spending is driven by two factors: disposable income and wealth.  Indeed, a simple model utilizing those two factors generates almost absurdly high r-squareds.  Macro Man developed the model below in 2006; as you can see, the out-of-sample result remained incredibly robust through a pretty turbulent period.

 

The upshot, therefore, is that to get a handle on the trajectory for consumption we need to get a handle on income and wealth dynamics.  It is in these areas that Macro Man has a few concerns.

On the income side, the news is ostensibly pretty good.  Payrolls are expanding at a solid pace, which may even uptick to “brisk” come Friday.  As has been noted around the street, wage growth is slowly starting to rise as well, which should augur well for spending growth.  Perhaps it will.  However, Macro Man has learned to beware of the impact of gasoline prices, and he himself had one of those “it’s how much per gallon?” moments last time he filled his tank.  Upon checking, he saw that yes indeed, gas prices are in fact at their highest levels in more than a year, and rapidly approaching the point where consumption has taken a hit.

What about wealth?  Similar to consumption, a lot of the growth in household net worth can be explained by two factors: stocks and house prices, even though those these represent a minority of the assets in household balance sheets.  As you can see, the model has done a pretty solid job of calling the rise in household net worth (though as the first chart suggests, it hasn’t really been enough to spur robust consumption.)

Obviously equities remain up on the year, though whether they end that way in the face of the Taper is anyone’s guess.  No, it’s housing where Macro Man has his worries, because despite the ostensibly happy news from the Case-Shiller index (prices up 12.9% y/y!), activity looks like it’s falling off a….well, if not a cliff, at least a moderately high garden wall.  Unsurprisingly, this was foreshadowed by the 1% rise in 30 year mortgage rates resulting from last summer’s Taper Tantrum.

Now, perhaps it is possible for home prices to continue to climb in the face of declining activity….but that looks like a sucker’s bet.  By the same token, it is certainly possible for mortgage rates to come back down sufficiently to re-stoke demand (hence yesterday’s question)…but on what catalyst?  It’s not as if there is no demand for no mortgage paper…quite the contrary.  There is just no real origination- the MBA purchase index is down 18% y/y, while the refi index is down an eye-watering 70% y/y.

So while the price index says that housing is OK, the ancillary indicators suggest that it isn’t really making too many people feel much richer these days…thus representing another risk to the bullish consensus.

Does all this mean that the US consumer’s about to roll over and play dead?   Not necessarily- merely that there is a risk that the rebound is not nearly as robust as anticipated.   Of course, once the Professor gets wind of the situation, he may send his agents of financial repression into overdrive.  Unfortunately, this is what a lower trend growth economy looks like.   While it certainly supports the notion that terminal rates should and will be lower than historical norms, from Macro Man’s perch it does not necessarily follow that any potential lift-off of the policy rate should be delayed indefinitely.  Indeed, to do so would just invite another pas de deux in the danse macabre between housing activity and mortgage rates. 

And of course, failure to lift off would leave relatively little room for maneuver when the consumer finally does wither.

April 28, 2014

How Bad Is It?

Filed under: Forex Strategies — admin @ 4:43 pm

Macro Man has had the decorators in, and they’ve tarted the place up a bit.  He reckons it looks a bit cleaner, and it should be a bit easier to scroll through recent posts.  The old template had been in place since 2008, a geologic age in Internet time and so long ago that the iPhone looked like this.   Any feedback on the new look, positive and negative, would be welcomed. 

That your author has had the time to fiddle with website templates and XML tells you everything you need to know about recent market price action.   As discussed on Friday, Macro Man was of two minds vis-a-vis equities, and thus far the decision to follow the original plan and cut risk looks to have been a good one.

More broadly, however, there appears to be an unusually paltry opportunity set, at least in terms of attractive major-market set ups.   At the same time, this week offers a menu of potentially important event risks of the type that can produce sustainable (in the short run, at least)  market gaps that have also been somewhat difficult to forecast.   Finally, and perhaps most importantly, risk appetite must be exceptionally low at the moment, with macro suffering since the bell rang on  January 2nd and many equity strategies getting carved up over the last six weeks or so.

How bad is it?   As of the time of writing, the 2 week realized vol in EUR/USD is 2.64%, the lowest in history since a few days in (gulp) May-July 2007.

Putting it another way, the range over the last 2 weeks has been 80 pips- and that’s come in the context of a re-escalation of the Ukraine crisis and a full court press from the ECB commenting on the unhelpful strength of the currency.  Bull or bear, that’s not a lot of meat on the bone, even for the most Micro of Men.

If EUR/USD cannot break out of its lethargy after Wednesday’s CPI/Fed and Friday’s payroll….well, then it may well be a very long summer indeed.

What about rates?  As noted in posts from a few weeks ago, Macro Man is keying on EDZ5 as a fixed income lynchpin, given that it is a “dot month” and should capture the first rate hike, barring an even larger dose of castor oil financial repression from the Fed.  Unfortunately, there’s not exactly a great set-up, with the contract stuck bang in the middle of the year’s range.

The problem with layering fresh risk at these levels is, of course, that payrolls could easily move the contract a dozen ticks in either direction in more or less a gap- and if you happen to be on the wrong side of the number, good luck and God speed.  One of the reasons that Macro Man prefers futures flies and call ladders to outrights in the futures is that these positions are a lot easier to hold over gappy economic data than the latter.

None of this is to say that that there are literally no good trades out there, of course- you just might need to go a little off piste to find them.  What it does say, however, is that it’s probably a bit unrealistic to expect risk appetite to recover in the short run when bellwether assets don’t offer much and the strasse finds itself in a bit of a P/L sinkhole.  It’s not the worst situation in the world….but it’s still pretty bad.

Bseindia Results

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , — admin @ 2:44 am

Countdown to The Delivery Man

The Delivery Man: October 4, 2013

Based on the French Canadian Movie Starbuck

From Director Ken Scott

Source: Wikipedia

The Delivery Man Soundtrack List

Music Supervisor Dana Sano

Source: IMDb

Identity Thief Soundtrack
Mashing up the hyper kinetic energy of Bridesmaids’ Melissa McCarthy, one of the producers of Ted along with the director of Horrible Bosses and its star, Ja…

THE INCREDIBLE BURT WONDERSTONE SOUNDTRACK & Songs in the Movie Trailer
Looking like Brad Pitt in that cheezy Channel commercial, Jim Carrey looks oh so fabulously over the top magilicious with a long mane of blond hair that Cher…

Bachelorette Soundtrack & the Song In the Movie’s Trailer
As far as bridesmaids behaving badly, Isla Fisher’s impish grin and Kirsten Dunst’s conspiratorial wink promise much the same hijinx as Kristen Wiig’s Brides…

The Odd Life of Timothy Green Soundtrack List & Kelly Clarkson Song in the Movie Trailer
24 tracks are included on The Odd Life of Timothy Green Soundtrack List with titles like “You’re Gonna Find It Hard to Believe”, “That’s Not N…

Butter Soundtrack
Jennifer Garner’s quirky indie flick Butter is described as an “irreverent, hilarious satire” by co-star Hugh Jackman who compares the comedy to mo…

Red Dawn 2012 Soundtrack
Chris Hemsworth is the new Patrick Swayze in the remake of the 1984 action movie with the 2012 Red Dawn Soundtrack scored by Fright Night’s Ramin Djawadi (Sa…

Cabin in the Woods Soundtrack Features Songs By OK Go, Nine Inch Nails, Iggy Pop & Reo Speedwagon
15 Songs in addition to the score by David Julyan are featured on The Cabin in the Woods Soundtrack list. Besides a traditional score by David Julyan (Memen…

Horrible Bosses Soundtrack List
It’s a superstar mash-up of contributions from members of Pearl Jam, the Beastie Boys and the Dave Mathews Band on the Horrible Bosses Soundtrack List, a roc…

I Don’t Know How She Does It Soundtrack
Perhaps the I Don’t Know How She Does It Soundtrack should be called “Songs For Working Moms to Chillax”, “Music to Drink With My Glass of Cha…

My Week With Marilyn Soundtrack Features Nat King Cole, Dean Martin & Michele Williams
Michelle Williams channels her inner Marilyn by adopting the screen vamp’s one of a kind look, mannerisms and walk, even learning her song and dance numbers …

Fright Night Soundtrack
Look out Robert Pattinson, as Colin Farrell takes his bloody turn as 2011’s most riveting vampire, headlining the 3D movie and Fright Night Soundtrack List. …

Final Destination 5 Soundtrack
Music to cheat death has been composed for the Final Destination 5 Soundtrack by Fast Five composer Brian Tyler who also scored The Expendables and the previ…

Going the Distance Music
Music from the Going the Distance movie soundtrack includes Albert Hammond, Jr., The Cure, Generationals, George James, Katie Herzig, The Pretenders, The Box…

Hot Tub Time Machine Soundtrack
As someone who went to highschool in the 80s, I remember back in the day when most of this music was still on vinyl. So, a decent 80s soundtrack like the Hot…

Behind the Scenes

On the Set of The Delivery Man

Behind-the-Scenes: Vince Vaughn and Chris Pratt filming ‘Delivery Man’ in NYC
by Phuq Yhew | video info

2 ratings | 1,565 views

Behind-the-scenes sneak peek at Vince Vaughn and Chris Pratt filming a scene for a new film “Delivery Man” in NYC. The movie, a DreamWorks remake of the French-Canadian drama “Starbuck,” stars Vaughn as an immature middle-age man who discovers he has fathered more than 500 children through sperm donations. The project has been slotted for an October 2013 wide release. Watch Vince and Chris shake hands at the end. Video taken on 47th Street in Midtown by me on Tuesday, Nov. 20, 2012.

curated content from YouTube

The Delivery Man Movie Release Date

October 4, 2013

Source: BoxOfficeMojo

Vince Vaughn Movies

Table of Contents

  1. Based on the French Canadian Movie Starbuck
  2. The Delivery Man Soundtrack List
  3. Behind the Scenes
  4. Movie Reviews The Delivery Man
  5. The Delivery Man Movie Release Date
  6. More About Vince Vaughn
  7. Vince Vaughn Movies
  8. Delivery Man Soundtrack
More

  1. Based on the French Canadian Movie Starbuck
  2. The Delivery Man Soundtrack List
  3. Behind the Scenes
  4. Movie Reviews The Delivery Man
  5. The Delivery Man Movie Release Date
  6. More About Vince Vaughn
  7. Vince Vaughn Movies
  8. Delivery Man Soundtrack
  9. Current & Upcoming Movie Releases
Less

Frequently Asked Questions

  1. QUESTION:
    Quaterly results of Indian cos?
    Where do i get the quaterly results of indian companies. also in which website do i get the tentative date of announcement of result

    • ANSWER:
      You can get the results of the Indian limited and private limited companies in the following sites
      http://www.bseindia.com
      http://www.nseindia.com
      these are the websites under the control of SEBI and stockexchange

      there is a rule in SEBI that the result of any limited companies has to be displayed in the site of the stock exchange where it is listed.

      you can search the company in the site and you can view the share holding pattern, scrip value, results and announcements in the website

  2. QUESTION:
    India – Q2 Results, SENSEX & NIFTY?
    Hi!
    Where can I get a list showing the 2009 Q2 (if possible, Q1 as well) financial results (net profit/sales revenue) of the 30 & 50 companies listed on the BSE & NSE respectively?

    • ANSWER:
      please go to the official BSE web site , link given below.

      http://www1.bseindia.com/qresann/compres_ak.asp

  3. QUESTION:
    where should i get the results of the companies?

    • ANSWER:
      Go to www.bseindia.com or www.nseindia.com where the respective stock exchanges publishing their members’ financial reports in their website.

      You can see the financial results below to the stock prices.

  4. QUESTION:
    in which sites can we check the financial results(past and present) of the companies in india??

    • ANSWER:
      www.indiaearnings.com

      u can get the latest financial report

      for the historical u need to log in to the www.nseindia.com
      or www.bseindia.com.

  5. QUESTION:
    hi can any one tell me abt network 18 shares present 440 i hurd it will touch 600 an thanks fr the rpl answers

    • ANSWER:
      http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/results.asp?scripcd=532798&scripname=NETWO%20FNCAP&type=55&quarter=SQ2007-2008&ResType=
      WHEN U CLICK ON ABOVE LINK U’LL FIND IT’S LAST FUNDAMENTAL IS VERY VERY VERY BAD COMPANY IS IN HUGE LOSS
      ACCORDING TO WHICH IT’S PRICE SHOULD BE Rs. 0.00
      BUT it is afinancial company that’s y there should be SATTA PLAYER INVOLVMENT.
      in satta no one can guarranty.
      better u switch over to some fundamental good stocks

  6. QUESTION:
    Where can I get a list of earning estimates(quarterly & annually) for Indian companies(BSE/NSE)?

    • ANSWER:
      for quartely and anually results simply visits…nseindia.com, bseindia.com and moneycontrol.com and you can also visit the company site who’s results are you looking for…..for more details mail me star_aqs@yahoo.co.in

  7. QUESTION:
    can i enter into Max India at these levels?

    • ANSWER:
      according to it’s fundamental i wont advice u to invest it’ Expected EPS for 200-08 is not more then 4/- according to which it’s price should not be more then 80/- only.
      for detail fundamental u can click on-

      http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/results.asp?scripcd=500271&scripname=MAX%20INDIA%20L.&type=55&quarter=SQ2007-2008&ResType=

  8. QUESTION:
    how can i find when a company is releasing its quarter earnings?

    • ANSWER:
      in india please search financial results through stock exchanges
      nseindia.com
      bseindia.com
      others please visit the financial results from their concerned stock exchanges webs.

  9. QUESTION:
    Where can I find Historical PE for stocks listed in India?
    I need last ten year PE for some stocks that are listed in India

    • ANSWER:
      you have to find out p/e after collecting historical rates and annual results from nseindia/bseindia of all stocks listed their.

  10. QUESTION:
    Tell me from where i get Reliance petroleum limited daily share price of last one year?

    • ANSWER:
      go to www.bseindia.com

      Click the link – Archives or click http://www.bseindia.com/histdata/stockprc.asp

      and enter the script name and select date

      You will get the results.

  11. QUESTION:
    i have to make project on IT CO.FROM WHERE SHOULD I GET THE BALANCE SHEET,RATIO ANALYSIS.CASH FLOW,FUND FLOW?
    FROM WHERE SHOULD I GATHER INFORMATION ABT THESE IF I CHOOSE A PARTICULAR FIRM IN AN INDUSTRY

    • ANSWER:
      try this
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_analysis
      for general information.
      For specific information on certain companies go to www.bseindia.com , u will find financial results of all listed companies like Infosys

  12. QUESTION:
    give me all the quote of mutual funds today in BSE?

    • ANSWER:
      All the ;quotes are available in TOI & Economic times daily and in also other dailies.
      Log on to BSEINDIA and quote the no. of the MF you desire and you have the results.

  13. QUESTION:
    How much devident declared by Hindalco in their Q3 2007?

    • ANSWER:
      Last year i.e. in the month of March 2007 dividend was declared at@ 170%. This year
      third quarter in the month of January 2008 no dividend is declared. Simply results are declared.

      Refer www.bseindia.com I have confirmed.

  14. QUESTION:
    where to see shares rate histoy?
    share market

    • ANSWER:
      go to nseindia.com , or bseindia.com. there u find the rate history.
      mostly the rate history will be available in the chart form.
      use the chart for the rate history purpose for better result and understanding.

  15. QUESTION:
    Is the data available online for Historical & present PE values of NSE Nifty Stocks ?
    Please name me any websites from where we can get the PE values of different NIFTY stocks, which is updated after each quarter results. Thanks

    • ANSWER:
      Try looking up on the official exchange websites.
      BSE : http://www.bseindia.com/
      NSE : http://www.nseindia.com/
      Or broker websites like :
      India Infoline : http://www.indiainfoline.com/

      Regards,
      Team
      The Falling Wedge

      http://thefallingwedge.blogspot.com/

  16. QUESTION:
    where can i find market values of shares of companies in may 2008 (each day) in BSE or NSE?
    the companies include infosys, satyam, dr.reddy’s lab,Kingfisher airlines, L&T. The dates are from 5th may to 10th may 2008

    • ANSWER:
      open nseindia.com
      then go for equities
      then historical market data
      then type the name of shares and dates
      you will find the data

      open bseindia.com
      then go for archivers
      then type the name of the share and dates
      you will get the result

  17. QUESTION:
    Could you pl. suggest sites for indian stock market which update corporate information quickly?
    Sites other than Rediff, Moneycontrol etc. they are updating after some hours.

    • ANSWER:
      Whenever I think of Best Free Indian Stock Sites Following Sites Come into my Mind.These Sites are must See For Investors/Traders Who want to Invest in indian Markets .These Sites are helpful for technical as well as Fundamental Analysts

      1 NSE Most popular Site Of India .Here you Will Get NSE Live Live Index Future and options,Live Stock Futures and options,Live Graphs,Open Interest,Bhav Copy Download for Cash as well as Future Segment.Very user Friendly Site.If You are an Investor or trador ,this is the site you must visit.You can Check Graphs as Well as Results,Announcements ,Share Holding Patterns etc .

      2 BSE The Older Brother of NSE,its main Index Sensex is Tracked all Over The World .Very user Friendly Site with live Graphs Also.Charting Section is Specially very good and is stuffed with Technical indicators like MACD Moving Average RSI Etc.Results anouncements Shareholding Patterns are also Available Very useful For Intraday Charting .This is one of few sites where Intraday chart along With technical Indicator can be assessed free.Check Site at http://www.bseindia.com/.Check Charting Section at http://charting.bseindia.com/

      3 Icharts : icharts is Heaven for technical Analysts .You can assess charting Section without Even Registering!!The Charting Section is Fully loaded with Indicators and it also Contains Some Rare Indicators like ADX Also.

      Jcharts (EOD) Section requires registration But is Free otherwise.It Contains Some of The Rare Indicators like Elder Ray Bear and Bull Power.Here you will not have to Search For Stocks.All the major Stocks Listed in NSE are Given in Left Pane.you can Check BSE Stocks Also by entering the BSE Code.Charts are very Good and The Bonus is The Automatic Buy and Sell Indicators.
      Check Icharts at http://www.icharts.in/

      4 MoneyControl . Heaven For Investors as Well as Traders .All thing put into one Site.Check Results,Make a Portfolio,Check Volume Shockers,Advance Declines ,Public View.this Site is one of the Best indian Site.only Graphs could be Much Better.Check Site at http://www.moneycontrol.com/

      5 Every morning Before Market opens,Check Nifty Futures Trading in SGX NIFTY at http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/marketplace/mp-en/prices_indices_statistics/derivatives/delayed_prices/infe This Will Give You Idea In Which Direction market is Going to Open

      6 Yahoo World Markets. If you want To know how Hang Seng is trading Or how Nikkie of Japan is trading Check this site only.Sensex is having a strong correlation with Hang Seng Index .So Please Check Asian MArkets in morning.In the Lunch Check how Europe is opening or Check Dow Futures in US markets.A must Site for Traders Check at http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

      7 Economic Times : Check ET on Internet all the News Opinions of ET at one Place .Also Have Life Markets Section Portfolio Basic Chart Fundamental analysis etc .
      Check at http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/

      8 Buzzing Stocks : one of the Best Technical analysis site in India.Full of automatic buy sell Decisions.You get long term medium term and Short term analysis of Stock.Also Check Stock Screeners which is one of The Few Best Screeners to Screen Stocks on MA or MACD etc.The Best Part is Heat Map Section,Which shows Nearly Live Nifty and option to tract upto 20 stocks or a sector .Kindly Check the site at http://www.buzzingstocks.com/in/index.pl

      9 VFM Direct is heaven for traders .here you can Check supports Resistance and Buy sell analysis of stocks.See it to Beleive it at http://www.vfmdirect.co.in/nl/index.shtml

      10. Last but not the least is a blog which is Giving all Type of information on Nifty Sensex and Stocks.Check the List of high Beta stocks aor Technical and Fundamental analysis of stocks.you can Download stock Books also from the links given .Check at http://nse2rich.blogspot.com/

  18. QUESTION:
    how to see share market?
    stock market

    • ANSWER:
      VISIT WWW.bseindia.com (OR) www.nseindia.com. These sites show the previous records of trading also. they show price at the days open, high, low, close rates, volumes, deliverable quantity of everyday,the month’s high, month’s low, 52 week high, 52 week low. They also show the current price, Quantity and price of any stock offered for buy or sell.

      The Sensex is an indicator of all the major companies of the BSE.
      The Nifty is an indicator of all the major companies of the NSE.

      If the Sensex goes up, it means that the prices of the stocks of most of the major companies on the BSE have gone up. If the Sensex goes down, this tells you that the stock price of most of the major stocks on the BSE have gone down.
      Equity trading is the buying and selling of company stock shares.
      Most investors combine the volume with the price of the stock to take decision on buying or selling.When the price is rising above average and the volume is lower than the average, the investors may sell the stock in fear of downfall.This will result in further drop in the price of the stock.
      Capital goods and consumer durables are the most important contributors to the volatility of the SENSEX.

  19. QUESTION:
    Project on Stock Exchange?
    Guys….I have a project on stock exchange…..

    1.History of stock exchange of india
    2.List of 25 companies listed in stock exchange
    3.Make an imaginary portfolio totalling a sum of rs 50,000 equally in any of the 5 companies of your choice listed above
    4.Graphical presentation of share prices of different companies on different dates
    5.Reasons for change in market value of shares

    So this is my project ……i didnt understand the 3…what does one mean by imaginary portfolio
    Sardar……i couldnt find it in google……

    • ANSWER:
      NSE IS INCORPORATED IN NOV.1992.It got recognition as stock exchange in April 1993.Bombay Stock Exchange is established in 1875. BSE is Asia s first Stock Exchange.Though 25 numbers exchanges exist, National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange are the two most significant permanent stock exchanges in India.
      Portfolio:
      1.RIL 30 shares
      2. RCOM 100 shares
      3.ICICI Bank 5 shares
      4.Tata steel 10 shares
      5.Fortis Healthcare 100 shares

      News about the company, like a product launch, closure of a factory, the government providing tax or duty exemptions to the sector , a dispute among the company’s top bosses, etc. will cause fluctuation in price of shares.
      News such as testing a nuclear bomb, a terrorist attack, election result,a budget announcement, reforms for getting FDI etc also causes in variation of stock prices.

      VISIT WWW.bseindia.com (OR) www.nseindia.com. These sites show the previous records of trading also. they show price at the days open, high, low, close rates, volumes, deliverable quantity of everyday,the month’s high, month’s low, 52 week high, 52 week low. They also show the current price, Quantity and price of any stock offered for buy or sell.

  20. QUESTION:
    I want to know how to buy and sale shares in share market?

    • ANSWER:
      A broker is a member of the stock exchange, who buys and sells stocks on his behalf and also on behalf of his customers.You may contact any brokers like Kotak securities,Karvy,HDFC securities etc with PAN card, Voter’s ID, Ration card, 3 months bank statement, cancelled cheque of bank ,2 nos.PHOTO for opening trading Account/3-in-1 account.
      Demat Account Opening Charges: Free if trading A/c is opened @ Rs.750
      Demat Account is an account where your Shares are stored in electronic form .Trading Account is an account which is used to place orders for Buying and Selling of shares .

      Minimum investment is depends upon brokerage firm.Investor can trade with less amount, but volumes / traded quantity are important to get gain. Investor can control the amount of huge loss by limiting the loss to 5%.The stop loss trigger price helps investor to limit his losses against unanticipated market movements.

      Most investors combine the volume with the price of the stock to take decision on buying or selling.When the price is rising above average and the volume is lower than the average, the investors may sell the stock in fear of downfall.This will result in further drop in the price of the stock.
      Capital goods and consumer durables are the most important contributors to the volatility of the SENSEX.
      VISIT WWW.bseindia.com (OR) www.nseindia.com. These sites show the previous records of trading also. they show price at the days open, high, low, close rates, volumes, deliverable quantity of everyday,the month’s high, month’s low, 52 week high, 52 week low. They also show the current price, Quantity and price of any stock offered for buy or sell.

      Buy stocks that have higher customer satisfaction to the amount not less than Rs.4000/- and sell at a higher price.
      One never invest more than he can afford to loss. No exceptions in cutting loss so investor can always avoid huge, damaging losses. Brokers will get money for every transactions made by the trader.
      When a company is listed on stock market, its market value is assessed in terms of shares.The shares that are more in demand goes up in price and those that are low in demand goes down.Managing the risks of trading is a very important part of any trader’s success.

  21. QUESTION:
    Novice Invester tips?
    I am new to investments and have currently 20 k in hand. I want to invest in small term low risk shares.Which of the shares will be good enough and Is it a good time to invest?Thanks

    • ANSWER:
      Ofcourse, everybody r saying that worse time is over for share market. But remember, before investing take some other opinions also. Go to different websites which gives u the opinion of technicians who r expertised in share market and its fluctuations.

      Till yesterday they told be careful, it may fall further, but now they r saying it will not fall further as it has reached 15000. But at any time, be careful before investing. Whenever u like to invest, invest only when the market falls, so that u can see profits after the market goes up.

      And we should always take the small scrips more, but should be kept for long term, that means take for 3 or 6months or 1year. So that u can book profits nicely.

      And u can go to websites like www.indiansharemarket.com
      www.moneycontrol.com, www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com, where u can find out the scrip name, their 52-week high and 52-week lows, their quarter results (Profits/Losses), their declaration of dividend, its position now, their basic EPS (Earnings per share) etc.

      U can see all the details, and then select the share which u want to buy. At present, energy, power and some other sectors do well. But see reliance group, Jindal group are always nice. And cement and sugar shares fluctuate according to their conditions in the market and their announcements.

      Small scrips like rel group (rnrl, relpetro, apollo tyres, ashokley) and so many other shares are there like this).U can go through the net and find them. ok. I hope my answer will help u a little.

  22. QUESTION:
    how to join basic share market in net?
    how to join basic share marking amount

    • ANSWER:
      A broker is a member of the stock exchange, who buys and sells stocks on his behalf and also on behalf of his customers.You may contact any brokers like Kotak securities,Karvy,HDFC securities etc with PAN card, Voter’s ID, Ration card, 3 months bank statement, cancelled cheque of bank ,2 nos.PHOTO for opening trading Account/3-in-1 account.
      Demat Account Opening Charges: Free if trading A/c is opened @ Rs.750
      Demat Account is an account where your Shares are stored in electronic form .Trading Account is an account which is used to place orders for Buying and Selling of shares .

      Minimum investment is depends upon brokerage firm.Investor can trade with less amount, but volumes / traded quantity are important to get gain. Investor can control the amount of huge loss by limiting the loss to 5%.The stop loss trigger price helps investor to limit his losses against unanticipated market movements.

      Most investors combine the volume with the price of the stock to take decision on buying or selling.When the price is rising above average and the volume is lower than the average, the investors may sell the stock in fear of downfall.This will result in further drop in the price of the stock.
      Capital goods and consumer durables are the most important contributors to the volatility of the SENSEX.
      VISIT WWW.bseindia.com (OR) www.nseindia.com. These sites show the previous records of trading also. they show price at the days open, high, low, close rates, volumes, deliverable quantity of everyday,the month’s high, month’s low, 52 week high, 52 week low. They also show the current price, Quantity and price of any stock offered for buy or sell.

      Buy stocks that have higher customer satisfaction to the amount not less than Rs.4000/- and sell at a higher price.
      One never invest more than he can afford to loss. No exceptions in cutting loss so investor can always avoid huge, damaging losses. Brokers will get money for every transactions made by the trader.
      When a company is listed on stock market, its market value is assessed in terms of shares.The shares that are more in demand goes up in price and those that are low in demand goes down.Managing the risks of trading is a very important part of any trader’s success.
      If a trader invests one lakh on 10th Feb, 2012 on five stocks
      (JPASSO-250@76,M&M-20@690,L&T-20@1350,
      HUL-60@390,Reliance-20@840)
      during sensex at 17800,the value of amount becomes 1,19,450 on today
      during sensex at 20110.

  23. QUESTION:
    methods or steps or procedure to caluclate sensex in bse?
    calculation of nifty

    • ANSWER:
      BSE Sensex is as an index calculated based on the free float capitalization technique. Free Float means the shares of a company that are traded in “Public entities”. All the entities (Retail Investors and Institutions) that are not Promoters of a company are called as Public Entities. To make things simple, lets take an example.

      In the case of Wipro, around 80% + stake is held by Azim Premji (The Promoter of the company). And around 15% – 20% is traded on the exchange. So BSE considers the cumulative value of 15% shares of Wipro while calculating the Free float market capitalization of the company.

      Free float Market Cap = # shares held by Public entities * Market Price of each share on the Exchange.

      It calculates this for all the shares traded on BSE and takes the top 30 stocks by Free Float Market Capitaliztion. In the ideal case scenario this list is dynamic and may change even with in a day due to fluctuations in market price. Hence, BSE revises the list preiodically and until the next revision the components of the BSE 30 are fixed.

      The total Free market cap for the 30 selected companies is added to get the total market cap of BSE 30 shares. Now weightages are assigned to each of the scrip based on the proportion of the BSE 30 market cap contributed by each share’s market cap. i.e.,

      Say Market cap for Wipro is Rs 100 and the market cap for BSE 30 is Rs 1000. Now, weightage for Wipro is 0.1 (100/1000). There is a list of ranges for the free float market cap based on which the free float factor is compted for each scrip. These free flaot factors give us an idea of how much % of the market cap of a share is free float.

      The BSE 30 index is nothing but a ratio of current market cap of BSE30 to a base year’s market cap (say 1980 etc…) As a result, you know how well / worse the market has performed irrespective of the absolute level of market caps. To have more information on this, you can actually visit the following page:

      http://www.bseindia.com/about/abindices/bse30.asp

  24. QUESTION:
    how to share market learn?

    • ANSWER:
      You can never make returns on shares by buying high and selling low. If your importance is on market speculation, you will get losses and unhappy consequences of a stock market speculator.VISIT WWW.bseindia.com (OR) www.nseindia.com. These sites show the previous records of trading also. they show price at the days open, high, low, close rates, volumes, deliverable quantity of everyday,the month’s high, month’s low, 52 week high, 52 week low. They also show the current price, Quantity and price of any stock offered for buy or sell.
      Visit www.icicidirect.com
      www.nseguide.com/beginners-guide-to-st
      www.Investopedia.com
      One online virtual share market game is arranged by www.moneypot.in. One has to learn the in/out of share market and to have fun with virtual trading after knowing basics on selection of stocks.
      visit www.moneycontrol.com for getting knowledge on stock price of companies.
      Most investors combine the volume with the price of the stock to take decision on buying or selling.When the price is rising above average and the volume is lower than the average, the investors may sell the stock in fear of downfall.This will result in further drop in the price of the stock.
      Sensex represent 30 stocks in 13 sectors of the economy and are leaders in their respective industries.The Nifty has 50 stocks covering 24 sectors.Capital goods and consumer durables are the most important contributors to the volatility of the SENSEX.
      News about the company, like a product launch, closure of a factory, the government providing tax or duty exemptions to the sector , a dispute among the company’s top bosses, etc. will cause fluctuation in price of shares.
      News such as testing a nuclear bomb, a terrorist attack, election result,a budget announcement, reforms for getting FDI etc also causes in variation of stock prices.

      If a trader invests one lakh on 10th Feb, 2012 on five stocks
      (SAIL-130@110,RCOM-120@95,PNB-40@1020,
      Educomp-50@250,TATAPOWER-190@110)
      during sensex at 17800,the value of amount becomes 85000 on 19-1-13
      during sensex at 20040.

  25. QUESTION:
    Could you please suggest me sectorwise 3 good/ better/ best stock Pl answer, the sector.Which you like most?
    Could you please suggest me sectrorwise 3 good/better/best stock In Indian stock market Pl answer, the sector.Which you like most ?

    Infra, refinery, cement, education, minning, it, aviation, power, fertilizers,
    Logistic, shipping, housing, hotel industries, telecom, media, fmcg,banking, oil&gas
    Capital goods, auto ,retail and momentum stocks

    The question is written in general, because lot of people have made lossess & to recover lossess ?

    • ANSWER:
      I like mining sector most. In this sector I can give you names of the companies:

      Mining : Sesa Goa (Iron ore) Sterlite Industries(copper) Hindalco(aluminium) all are leaders in their respective mining products.

      I feel one should go by leaders in selecting companies and their financial results for the full year. Brokers’ tips are misleading, in longer run. Investment should be long term base.
      Most of the companies listed hereunder are at least 25 years of standing may perhaps entered in capital market recently
      like TCS, Tanla solution, On Mobile Global etc.

      Infrastructure: Larsen and Toubro
      Refinery oil and natural gas : ONGC
      Power: Reliance energy(earst while Bombay Suburban Electric Supply), Tata Power
      Fertilizers: Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers
      Banking: State Bank of India
      Telecommunication: Tanla Solution, On Mobile Global
      (recently issued shares fundamentally vary strong.May
      listed shortly perhaps will be available at par because
      all have been alloted shares)

      Information technology: TCS

      Refer sites like : www.bseindia.com. www.nseindia.com for
      all the details to get authenticate information and necessary
      data to take our own judgement, it is interesting if you really
      want to profit as well as safe investment. Study is important.

      Losses are made because of lack of patience. Running ahead of time. Not going through the price history. Not
      keeping constant watch on selected shares.

      If not wrong, those who kept patience must have gained
      in long term.

  26. QUESTION:
    What is nifty and sensex?
    Please give me an idea about Sensex and Nifty. How can we track the share market with these indices.

    • ANSWER:
      Nifty involves 50 companies listed in National Stock exchange covers 22 sectors of the Indian economy and offers investment managers exposure to the Indian market in one portfolio.
      The base value of the SENSEX is taken as 100 on April 1, 1979, and its base year as 1978-79.The calculation of SENSEX involves dividing the free float market capitalization of 30 companies listed on Bombay Stock Exchange in the index by a number called index divisor.The divisor is the only link to original base period value of the SENSEX. It keeps the index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips, etc.
      On July 25, 1990, the SENSEX touched the four-digit figure for the first time and closed at 1,001 in the wake of a good monsoon and excellent corporate results. The SENSEX on February 6, 2006 touched 10,003 points during mid-session.The SENSEX on October 29, 2007 crossed the 20,000 mark for the first time.

      Through BSEIndia Live a trader can make certain strategies on how to invest, when to invest, in which scrip to invest and what is going to be the future of the market.

  27. QUESTION:
    i want to go for day trading, but ido not have much knowledg, please help me how can i start trading?

    • ANSWER:
      Basically Day Trading is all about timing and knowing the entity where investor plan to trade. Trader will buy the stock at a low price, and sell it to someone at a higher price. the stock is trader’s inventory, and trader just entered a huge market where everyone else is doing the same thing. Remember, someone has to lose money for another trader to make it. and vice versa
      Demat Account Opening Charges: Free if trading A/c is opened @ Rs.750 through brokerage form KOTAK SECURITIES etc.
      When the market dips always sell first and buy late.You can see the price levels at bseindia.com and nseindia.com. These sites show you the previous records also. The days open, high, low, close rates, volumes, deliverable qty of everyday. Also they show the month’s high, month’s low, 52 wk high, 52 wk low. It will help to fix price of the share and stop loss level to sell the share. Don’t trust the tips blindly as share market is a very risky place to trade.Learn when to take your profits and exit and when to cut your losses and close a position before it becomes worse.
      Day traders must square their positions at the end of the trading session. This is easy if investors are trading in large-cap , index-based stocks, which are very liquid and get traded in large volumes every day. Trader can have up to 3-5 large-cap , indexbased stocks on watch list, traders do not trade in more than 2-3 stocks at a time.Trader should know about all corporate actions (stock splits, bonuses, dividends, result dates, mergers, etc) as well as technical levels of the stock. There are websites where one can feed in the price (high, low and closing) to know the resistance and support levels.


bseindia results

April 27, 2014

Forex Queen Street Toronto

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , , — admin @ 2:44 am

Nota Bene was named Canada’s Best New Restaurant By Toronto Life & Air Canada’s EnRoute Magazine and was voted as one of Canada’s Top Ten New Restaurants by Where Magazine. Located at 180 Queen Street West, Nota Bene bridges the downtown restaurant in Toronto business district with funky Queen West; steps away from the Theatre district and the Opera House.



forex queen street toronto

April 26, 2014

Exchange Rates China

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , , — admin @ 2:44 am

INTRODUCTION:

China is a country in the Asian sub-continent with one of the world s largest populations. It has one of the world s highest economic growth rates and it is expected that by the year 2030 china might be the world s largest economy if the growth rate continues at the current levels. China has had an average economic growth rate of more than 7% for the last decade and it has been classified as one of the Asian tigers alongside Singapore South Korea and Taiwan.

China was more of a socialist command economy since the period of the onset of world war one but social and economic reforms effectively took root in 1989 to turn china into a market economy. Although china has tried its best to be an ideal market economy many regulations still exist that make it more of a mixed economy.

Such regulations exist on the domestic currency (Renminbi), the main topic of this paper. Due to this growth china has become one of the worlds best investment locations. In addition Chinas exports into the world economy are on the increase year in and year out.

In trying to analyze the reasons why the Chinese government does not want an immediate change into a floating currency we shall also look at issues like the advantages of a fixed currency or pegged currency against a floating currency.

CHINESE CURRENCY: RENMINBI (RMB)

For many years the Chinese currency has been a fixed currency but since 1994 it has been more of a managed floating currency. The Chinese government has usually set a 0.3 percentage per day fluctuation limit on either side based on a central parity basis. In July 2005 the Chinese government introduced new economic reforms. In these reforms the currency was to be affected as follows.

Firstly the Renminbi was not to be pegged on the United States dollar anymore but instead was to be pegged on a basket of currencies and secondly the renminbi was to be made more flexible by having its price value being determined by market forces of demand and supply. In the same July of 2005 the Chinese government announced a 2.1 percent appreciation of the renminbi to the dollar. This was meant to be an indication of better things to come of a floating renminbi but the road to a complete floating currency has been long and problematic. The process has been very slow and indeed the Chinese currency still seems very much pegged on the United States dollar in international transactions. The United States dollar being one of the most favored hard currencies seems many countries want to peg their currencies on it. This is because pegging a currency on the U.S dollar guarantees some level of stability in international trade and the countries involved in the act are not highly affected by market forces. This has been evidenced by acts of countries adopting partial (semi-official) dollarization of their currencies including Iraq, Somalia and southern Sudan.

WHY CHINA IS ADJUSTING IT`S EXCHANGE RATE SLOWLY:

For a long time now the Chinese economy has been experiencing a substantial current account surplus of sometimes up to six percent of the gross domestic product. In addition to this net capital inflows into the Chinese economies industrial sector are continually on the increase, could this be the reason why the Chinese government wants a gradual shift into a floating currency. This can be analyzed in detail using the underlying balance approach.

Thus we could assume that the Chinese renminbi is economically and intentionally under valued. If it is true that the currency is undervalued then the Chinese government will have to allow a gradual shift towards a floating currency since direct adoption of a floating currency will mean that the currency will automatically appreciate to a market equilibrium point within a short period probably even a couple of weeks.

This would mean that all of a sudden Chinese exports would become proportionally more expensive and imports would necessarily become cheaper by the same proportion. This can be evidenced by scenes from many developing countries which had to adopt structural adjustment programs. In the case of these states most of them in Asia Latin America and Africa their case was the entire opposite. According to the structural adjustment programs they had to float their currencies. In the case of these states their currencies depreciated highly and ended up with their exports becoming cheap and imports becoming more expensive. This is the reason that many sub-Saharan Africa states have current account deficits up to 30% of their Gross domestic products, since they are entirely dependent on industrial exports. Applying this scenario to the case of china then the current account surplus that china has been experiencing over the last couple of years would certainly come to an end and probably end up being a current account deficit. In addition the economic growth rate would certainly come to an end. This would be as a result of reduced productivity that would lead to massive loss of jobs, an increasing or rising consumer price index, and a massive decline in foreign domestic investments as investors seek more profitable locations like India, Malaysia and Singapore.

HOW THE EXCHANGE RATE INFLUENCES THE WHOLE COUNTRY`S ECONOMY AND TRADING WITH OTHERS:

The current state of a managed floating currency has its own advantages and demerits at the same time both domestically and also on the global economy.

Advantages:

On the domestic economic status the managed float has had many positive effects. Firstly by having a managed float producers of not only industrial but also consumer goods are guaranteed a fixed amount of return on their exports. This security guaranteed by a pegged currency on the dollar has boosted production capacities within the Chinese economy and thus boosted export potential as well as improving on the current account balance.

In addition by having the currency pegged on a value that is in economic terms under valued, this has in turn reduced the value of imports coming into the domestic economy. This has had the effect of reducing currency outflows within the Chinese economy. In addition since exports are in excess of imports the net balance of trade has meant that the Chinese government is increasing stocks of foreign currency.

On a global perspective increased competitiveness within the Chinese industrial sector has led to reduced global prices especially of goods that are mass produced like toys and electronic goods and devices. In addition the undervalued currency has led to massive increases in net capital inflows portfolios largely lured in by market expectations of appreciation.

Disadvantages of the current currency regime:

A fixed currency pegged currency or a managed float usually have some negative policy implications for an economy. In the case of china the managed float has had the following negative effects both on the domestic economy and the global economy.

On a purely domestic perspective the managed float has limited the independence of Chinas monetary policies and the macro-economic environment in the following ways. Firstly it has limited the central bank from increasing domestic lending rates even in times of investment booms and accelerating price inflation, since even with controls the central bank feared increased capital inflows that would subsequently lead to an excess of demand for industrial loans over available supply.

If this was to happen then the central bank would be forced to introduce lending ceilings that are economically problematic since they affect the continued development of a credit culture within the Chinese economy.

In addition the Chinese government has invested heavily in overseas countries as well as emerging as a development partner to many African countries. In terms of financing the government has signed many contracts especially in the field of oil explorations in the Falk land islands and the east African coast. All these and many more contracts could end up being more expensive if the Renminbi was to significantly change in value.

Further more the excessively under valued currency, leads to excess investment in tradable goods. This increased investment in tradable goods will cause the real exchange rate to appreciate within the domestic economy. Once the real exchange rate appreciates it lowers the profitability in the tradable goods industry sending shock waves throughout the economy especially in the financial services sector where it most adversely affect commercial and investment banks.

Besides the mentioned demerits the managed float also causes a massive potential capital loss. In this field the loss is self-inflicted. This arises due to the fact that as china accumulates excess financial capital reserves in the form of foreign exchange reserves it is bracing itself up for potential losses if it was to revalue its currency to a basket of world hard currencies. In addition the prolonged intervention in the foreign exchange market has started to cause for protectionist measures especially within its major trade partners like the United States and the European Union.

If this was to happen on a global perspective then china might find itself faced with many tariff barriers from its trade partners. A significant protectionist measure in the U.S is the Schumer-Graham bill in the US Senate, which could lead to a 27.5 percent tariff imposition on Chinese imports into the United States.

Another protectionist measure is the congressional action subjecting the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporations intended purchase Of a U.S Company Unocal, to a review by congress. Due to the fact that over half of all Chinese exports go to Europe, United States, and Japan then china needs to be afraid of such protectionist measures.

In addition since china is a major trading partner of the world s largest economy, the United States, its inflexible currency complicate the issue of global imbalances and thus increases the risk of a hard-landing for the United States economy as well as the United States currency compounded by probable non-adjustable spillover effects for the global economy.

Conclusion:

Although china is willing to eventually have a floating currency the immediate achievement of this is problematic. some of the issues that make it quite difficult include; a fragile banking sector-although efforts are being made to resolve this, like overwriting debts of national banks and listing them on the stock exchange, like it did with the industrial commercial and development bank of china, the banking sector is still precarious.

Although ultimately a floating renminbi is good for the global economy immediate adjustment might be more costly than expected. Thus the ultimate decision will have to be made by the Chinese authorities based on their views of potential gains and or losses for both the Chinese and the global economy.

Reference:

Morris Goldstein and Nicholas Lardy, China s Exchange Rate Policy Dilemma (PDF), Institute for International Economics. Available at: www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2006/0107_1015_1301.pdf

Marko kreb and Mario I. Bl jer (1999) Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Competitiveness in Transition Economies, Springer, U.K

Eugene F. Brigham and Michael C. Ehrhardt (2005) Financial Management: Theory and Practice, Thomson South-Western.

Yun-Wing Sung (1991) The China-Hong Kong Connection: The Key to China’s Open-door Policy, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Nicholas R. Lardy (1992) Foreign Trade and Economic Reform in China, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Frequently Asked Questions

  1. QUESTION:
    How does China fix their exchange rate?
    i am doing gcse economics and revising exchange rates. i have read i a text book that some countries fix their exchange rates. i know onw of them is India. the other is China, but how does that work. it says somehting about buying or selling the yaun in the foreign exchnge market.
    please help. and expain clearty and simpliy

    • ANSWER:
      A pegged, or fixed system, is one in which the exchange rate is set and artificially maintained by the government. China “pegs” the yuan to the US dollar, and artificially keeps the value of the yuan lower than it would be otherwise. This makes Chinese goods “cheaper” than they would be otherwise.
      A government has to work to keep their pegged rate stable. Their national bank must hold large reserves of foreign currency to mitigate changes in supply and demand. China does this by selling the yuan / buying US dollars. With more yuan “available” in the market, the value of the yuan falls (or stays “pegged” to the dollar). To increase the value of the yuan, China would sell some of its US dollar reserves (or other foreign currency holdings) and buy yuan – thus decreasing the number of yuan “in the market” and increasing its value.
      With “quantitative easing” by the US Federal Reserve, more US dollars are entering the US economy (and thus the global economy), devaluing the US dollar. China is very concerned about this because now their holdings of US dollars are worth less.
      At the end of March, 2011 China held US.04 Trillion in reserves.

  2. QUESTION:
    China affecting us exchange rate?
    i want a reliable source about exchange rate of china and us..
    i dont want tables. jus a reliable source or link or site or anything!!!,, please help thanks

    • ANSWER:
      China doesn’t float their currency. They attach, or peg it to the Dollar, if that’s what your looking for
      http://wallstreetpit.com/60604-china-currency-manipulation
      http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/economics/chinese-currency-manipulation/
      http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/currencies-china-renminbi-dollar-peg-47718

      http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/31/china-yuan-dollar-markets-currency-pegging-g20.html

  3. QUESTION:
    Compare and contrast the similarities of China and the United States in terms of exchange rates, trade practic?
    Compare and contrast the similarities of China and the United States in terms of exchange rates, trade practices, and environmental factors. What affect does China have on the global economy?

    • ANSWER:
      The exchange rate of the dollar has been determined solely by demand and supply in the money market.But the FED can influence the exchange rate indirectly using monetary policy such as the fund rate.The exchange rate of the Yuan is determined by the Chinese central bank.It has pegged to the US dollar since 2008,and can move only in a limited bound.
      The US trade with China under the rule of WTO, it is mainly free. China has set both tariff and non-tariff barriers against the US products.The US has taken the case to WTO already.
      China has the worse environmental problem on earth. The US has join the same wagon.It did not even attend the last COP summit.
      China has affected the world economy. It is the only country in the world which still has a high growth rate, but it is not free and fair.

  4. QUESTION:
    how are foreign exchange rates determined?

    • ANSWER:
      A market based exchange rate will change whenever the values of either of the two component currencies change. A currency will tend to become more valuable whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply. It will become less valuable whenever demand is less than available supply (this does not mean people no longer want money, it just means they prefer holding their wealth in some other form, possibly another currency).

      Increased demand for a currency is due to either an increased transaction demand for money, or an increased speculative demand for money. The transaction demand for money is highly correlated to the country’s level of business activity, gross domestic product (GDP), and employment levels. The more people there are out of work, the less the public as a whole will spend on goods and services. Central banks typically have little difficulty adjusting the available money supply to accommodate changes in the demand for money due to business transactions.

      The speculative demand for money is much harder for a central bank to accommodate but they try to do this by adjusting interest rates. An investor may choose to buy a currency if the return (that is the interest rate) is high enough. The higher a country’s interest rates, the greater the demand for that currency. It has been argued that currency speculation can undermine real economic growth, in particular since large currency speculators may deliberately create downward pressure on a currency in order to force that central bank to sell their currency to keep it stable (once this happens, the speculator can buy the currency back from the bank at a lower price, close out their position, and thereby take a profit).

      In choosing what type of asset to hold, people are also concerned that the asset will retain its value in the future. Most people will not be interested in a currency if they think it will devalue. A currency will tend to lose value, relative to other currencies, if the country’s level of inflation is relatively higher, if the country’s level of output is expected to decline, or if a country is troubled by political uncertainty. For example, when Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed his Government on February 24, 2004, the price of the ruble dropped. When China announced plans for its first manned space mission, synthetic futures on Chinese yuan jumped (since China’s currency is officially pegged, synthetic markets have emerged that can behave as if the yuan was floating).

      Like the stock exchange, money can be made or lost on the foreign exchange market by investors and speculators buying and selling at the right times. Currencies can be traded at spot and foreign exchange options markets. The spot market represents current exchange rates, whereas options are derivatives of exchange rates

  5. QUESTION:
    Economics question – exchange rate and imports/exports?
    hey yahoo,

    ive been talking to a few people about the australian exchange rate and i am wondering what will happen to the economy if Australia cannot sustain a high exchange rate?

    as in, if the australian exhange rate continues to rise, will australian exporters and manufacturers not be able to sustain themselves under the strain of cheap imports?

    ive been told that instead of siding with the importers (which would bring a higher income (unsure?)) to side with the exporters (which would have a lower income (unsure again?)).
    and it is better for the country and it would not screw up the CAD (current account deficit)

    any help?

    cheers

    • ANSWER:
      Exchange rates and Current Account Balances are pretty simple, but tricky.

      Australia will be able to sustain a higher exchange rate so as long as their trading partners allow them to. Lets pretend Australia is trading with China. If Australia’s currency rises relative to the Yaun it will make those imports cheaper.

      In short, as long as China is willing to purchase Australian currency and/or bonds to facilitate the rising currency, then the situation can be sustained. You can replace China with any other country if you like, the principal holds.

      The problem comes if you amass a huge trade surplus or a spike in your currency. For starters, once investors do not believe the currency will rise anymore, they will look elsewhere for new investments which will put downward pressure on the currency. Also, if Australia is running massive trade deficits, eventually the trading partner will want to cash in on those bonds and/or obligation notes to consume themselves.

      If Australia has the resources to meet those demands, then no problem. If they cannot, this will put downward pressure on their currency.

      Generally, you want a rising exchange rate when your economy is strong and growing. You also want it as you reach your resource limits.

      If you are not at your resource limits or have a really high unemployment rate, a weaker currency could be called for. A weaker currency also tends to reduce trade deficits because it makes your exports more competitive.

      Whether a rising currency would hurt Australia will really depend on the resources it is exchanging. If Australia has a lot of capital intensive, high value items that others cannot buy or produce very readily, then yes a higher exchange rate may not mess up the CAD.

      On the other hand, should they not, it could.

      http://www.econ180.com/

  6. QUESTION:
    what happens when the exchange rate decreases?
    The lower the exchange rate, the
    Answer
    larger is the quantity of Australian dollars supplied in the foreign exchange market.
    larger is the quantity of Australian dollars demanded in the foreign exchange market.
    smaller is the quantity of Australian dollars supplied in the foreign exchange market.
    smaller is the quantity of Australian dollars demanded in the foreign exchange market.
    B and C.
    i thought the answer would be A and D as they are the causality low exch rate?? need help!

    • ANSWER:
      If your exchange rate is lower, does that mean that the foreign currency is worth more?
      And is that favorable?

      Favorable rates means that your currency is in demand and foreign markets want to take your currency as an investment to make a profit, speculating that the favorable rate will help anyone holding that currency.

      So, if the Aussie dollar buys more foreign good without changing the amount supplied (i.e. buys an extra box of CDs from China) then you already know the answer.

      But I am not saying that I know that a lower exchange rate is favorable or unfavorable. (Still sleepy)

  7. QUESTION:
    How does the currency exchange rate work?
    What determines the exchange rate among varies countries?

    • ANSWER:
      The exchange rate (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other.

      A market based exchange rate will change whenever the values of either of the two component currencies change. A currency will tend to become more valuable whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply. It will become less valuable whenever demand is less than available supply (this does not mean people no longer want money, it just means they prefer holding their wealth in some other form, possibly another currency).

      Increased demand for a currency is due to either an increased transaction demand for money, or an increased speculative demand for money. The transaction demand for money is highly correlated to the country’s level of business activity, gross domestic product (GDP), and employment levels. The more people there are unemployed, the less the public as a whole will spend on goods and services. Central banks typically have little difficulty adjusting the available money supply to accommodate changes in the demand for money due to business transactions.

      The speculative demand for money is much harder for a central bank to accommodate but they try to do this by adjusting interest rates. An investor may choose to buy a currency if the return (that is the interest rate) is high enough. The higher a country’s interest rates, the greater the demand for that currency. It has been argued that currency speculation can undermine real economic growth, in particular since large currency speculators may deliberately create downward pressure on a currency in order to force that central bank to sell their currency to keep it stable (once this happens, the speculator can buy the currency back from the bank at a lower price, close out their position, and thereby take a profit).

      In choosing what type of asset to hold, people are also concerned that the asset will retain its value in the future. Most people will not be interested in a currency if they think it will devalue. A currency will tend to lose value, relative to other currencies, if the country’s level of inflation is relatively higher, if the country’s level of output is expected to decline, or if a country is troubled by political uncertainty. For example, when Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed his Government on February 24, 2004, the price of the ruble dropped. When China announced plans for its first manned space mission, synthetic futures on Chinese yuan jumped (since China’s currency is officially pegged, synthetic markets have emerged that can behave as if the yuan were floating).

  8. QUESTION:
    is stuff in china cheaper or more expensive than in the us taking into account the exchange rate?

    • ANSWER:
      Well generally things in China are cheaper than buying in nearly every country except the US. Some items like electronics are about the same or cheaper in the US.

      But it is not as simple as all that. Chinese brand laptops tend to be cheaper in China than abroad while other countries brands tend to be more expensive in China (Samsung is an exception). However now that China owns IBM PC computers you would think that IBM laptops would be cheaper in China, however as IBM has a good reputation in China they tend to more expensive than abroad where people think that the Chinese ownership has changed the quality.

      Other items that are cheaper abroad are luxury items and makeup.

      If you live in the south of China you will find that you can go to Hong Kong to buy just about everything cheaper in Hong Kong than anywhere else in the world.

  9. QUESTION:
    What is the current exchange rate in China banks between the US dollar and RMB?

    Has anyone visited a bank in China within the past few days?
    The reason I’m asking is that the exchange rate in China fluctuates every day. Just hoping to get the most accurate rate.

    • ANSWER:
      1 CNY = 0.146396 USD
      1 USD = 6.83080 CNY

      CNY = Chinese Yuan Renminbi
      USD = United States dollar

      http://www.xe.com

      EDIT: I haven’t been to a bank here in China lately, but the exchange rate is what it is. However, there can be a small service charge, depending upon your location. If you change money at a hotel, the fee will be larger. If you change it at a large bank, it will be less. If you withdraw money from your US based credit card via a non-affiliated ATM then the service fee can be quite hefty. Addition to the foreign exchange fee, your bank can charge a non-use ATM fee as well as the bank in China. I know on the rare occasion that I have to use a Bank of China ATM for my US bank back home, I get charge a flat .00 (68 yuan) fee plus the foreign conversion fee my own bank charges. This has nothing to do with the actual exchange rate.

      EDIT 2: The actual exchange rate doesn’t fluctuate by much unless there’s been a big government announcement for such. The website listed above maintains pretty much an up-to-the-minute exchange rate data base. What it doesn’t have though, is those pesky fees that can be charged by various institutions and money changers.

  10. QUESTION:
    what is the effect on US and China’s economies with the historic low exchange rate?
    the exchange rate between US dollars and Chinese Yuan was about 1:8 for many years. Yet recently it dropped to 1:7 to almost 1:6.8, what is the cause of this change and what is the effect on both countries’ economies?

    • ANSWER:
      I do not know the specific reason for the recent change. However, I know for years, the Chinese Government fixed the value of their currency at an artificially low level. This was done much to the concern of other countries around the world.

      When China’s currency is low in relation to other country’s, generally these other countries will be able to buy more goods less expensively by importing from China than they can by buying from vendors within their own countries. This helps the Chinese economy, but may slow the economies of the other countries.

      In general, a country benefits when exports increase and imports decrease. China’s policy of maintaining their currency at an artifically low level, helped increase their exports to other countries, while making it too expensive for other countries to sell certain goods to China. This creates one-sided trade that, in this example, benefits China.

      Based on the above, China’s move to slightly increase the value of its currency, to many other countries, is a move in the right direction. This will make it somewhat easier for the US to sell to China, which helps the US economy.

      Lastly, keep in mind that the value of one currency compared to another currency, is a two-sided proposition. If the value of China’s currnency remains stable, but the US’s currency declines, China’s currency will strenghten in relation to the US currency even if China does nothing. I am not saying that China did nothing. I am just saying you should always keep in mind the complexity involved when analyzing currency’s.

  11. QUESTION:
    How are exchange rates of various currencies fixed?
    How are exchange rates of various currencies fixed?

    • ANSWER:
      There are two ways to fix an exchange rate. There is a case where the country just declares an official exchange rate, like in the case of Cuba. In this case, this really isnt the supply and demand derived exchange rate and a large black market is created.

      In the other case, which is more common, like in the case of China, a currency is “pegged” to another. A nation can fix their exchange rate to another nation by using monetary policy to control the underlying supply and demand factors.

      So for instance, if China wants to lower the value of their currency compared to the US, it sells Yuan (china’s currency) and by dollar based assest (this is why China onws so much of ouw government bonds). In doing so, the demand for Yuan goes down as the demand for the dollar goes up.

      Also, a central bank can issue more or less money into the system by buying or selling assets liek bonds into the market to effect the supply side of the equation. When bond are sold money is taken out fo the system, which reduced supply, or when bonds are baught, money is put into the system. The US and other floating currency nations do this to balance inflation and growth, but if a nation wants to, it can do this instead to controlt he relative value of a currency compared to another one.

  12. QUESTION:
    On what exchange rate depends? Who changes it?

    • ANSWER:
      Exchange rates are really just about demand for a particular currency. Currency values change based on supply and demand just like goods you buy at the store.

      People who use their home country’s currency will create demand for another currency if they want to buy goods and services in that other country that uses that other currency or to make investments in the country that uses said currency.

      If there are a lot of people in the US for example who are buying goods and services from India they’ll demand more rupees to exchange for dollars in order to do so, and so according to the laws of supply and demand, all else being equal, the value of the rupee relative to the dollar will go up.

      At the same time, if there are a whole bunch of people in India who want to make loans to US businesses or buy stocks in US businesses they’ll demand more dollars in exchange for rupees in order to do so. The value of US dollars relative to rupees will go up.

      I should also mention, that vastly more currency is involved in investment and financial service type transactions in today’s economy than say for hard goods transactions. Also, many developing countries like China. intentionally try to keep their currency devalued, because they don’t have enough internal wealth to support their own goods markets, they have to export most of what they make, and they can compete by keeping their currency undervalued and thus, their goods cheap relative to countries with high value currency.

      Hope I didn’t confuse you.

  13. QUESTION:
    China $US reserves = inflation?
    I just read an article which stated that China’s reserves of American dollars are leading to inflation (in China).

    Does that make any sense?

    Thanks!

    • ANSWER:
      China uses a fixed exchange rate. Bush went over there and was all like “Float the yuan so your currency *can* appreciate in regards to the American dollar and so your exports look less nice to Americans” But they didn’t.

      A fixed exchange rate, if you didn’t already know, is where the central bank keeps the value of their currency at a set ratio to another currency. The Mexican central bank did this a while before the peso crisis, keeping the peso valued at about 28 American cents per peso. The bank inflated the currency when American currency inflated and deflated it when American currency deflated.

      Now China still has the fixed exchange rate, but are doing a weird basket currency thing that makes no sense. Essentially, the Chinese yuan will always remain at the same rate as the basket of currencies they set their exchange rate to (as long as the Chinese Central Bank has the reserves needed to prop up the yuan when it deflates (which it does)) and so the yuan will never really ‘inflate’ in regards to the combination of these basket currencies, but would do so in regards to many of its neighbors if the basket currencies appreciated and the Chinese central bank had to appreciate the yuan to keep the exchange rate fixed with the basket currencies.

      So inflation of the yuan is going to be directly correlated to the inflation in its basket of currencies. Currently, the American dollar is one of the top-weighted currencies in the basket.

      When China buys American dollars (which it does to make Chinese exports appear nicer to Americans) it drives up demand for American dollars. Shifting the demand curve right, as you know, rises the price, causing the American dollar to inflate.

      Because China is causing the American currency to inflate, it could very well be infating its own currency by proxy because the Chinese central bank sets the value of the yuan based on the value of the American dollar (And the Canadian dollar and the Euro and lots others).

      Make sense?

      Replied to your email. I mixed up my inflation with appreciation. The answer is in the supply side, I say! Not demand! I will update this answer later.

  14. QUESTION:
    what is the fixed exchange rate of china, north korea,north vietnam, cuba and rhodesia?
    i heard that these 5 countries have fixed exhange rate specially in the Bureau of Customs like in Philippines

    • ANSWER:
      there is no fixed rate. the world monetary fund governs
      the rates in partnership with the world’s stock markets.
      currency rises and falls all the time, you just have to pick the best time when to exchange.

  15. QUESTION:
    Why does a savings glut lower interest rates?
    With increased savings rather than investment, how does this lower interest rates?

    I always though interest rates were set by the central bank (Bank of England or FED etc)?
    Thanks financegal27, that was a good answer for part of the question. Though, I was asking the question more so in the context of the global savings glut (particularly in China), and how this led to very low interest rates in the West and low corporate borrowing costs?

    • ANSWER:
      Interest rates are global, you can arbitrage them through the Forex exchange Market.

      Saving glut means that the amount of savings increases compared to the amount of investments they can finance.

      The interest rate being the price of investment and savings when supply increase faster thhan demand the “price”, lon-term interest rates goes down.

      That increase in the fall of interest rate has been called the Greenspan Conundrum and os the cause of the economic crisis and of Keynes’s Liquidity Trap.

      “There is little doubt that, with the breakup of the Soviet Union and the integration of China and India into the global trading market,
      more of the world’s productive capacity is being tapped to satisfy global demands for goods and services.

      Concurrently, greater integration of financial markets has meant that a larger share of the world’s pool of savings
      is being deployed in cross-border financing of investment.

      The favourable inflation performance across a broad range of countries resulting from enlarged global goods,
      services and financial capacity has doubtless contributed to expectations of lower inflation in the years ahead and lower inflation risk premiums.

      But none of this is new and hence it is difficult to attribute the long-term interest rate declines of the last nine months
      to glacially increasing globalization.For the moment, the broadly unanticipated behavior of world bond markets remains a conundrum.

      Bond price movements may be a short-term aberration,
      but it will be some time before we are able to better judge the forces underlying recent experience.”

      Chairman Alan Greenspan
      Federal Reserve Board’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.
      Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate.
      February 16, 2005

      “The third major uncertainty in the economic outlook relates to the behavior of long-term interest rates. The yield on ten-year Treasury notes, currently near 4-1/4 percent, is about 50 basis points below its level of late spring 2004. Moreover, even after the recent widening of credit risk spreads, yields for both investment-grade and less-than-investment-grade corporate bonds have declined even more than those on Treasury notes over the same period.

      This decline in long-term rates has occurred against the backdrop of generally firm U.S. economic growth, a continued boost to inflation from higher energy prices, and fiscal pressures associated with the fast approaching retirement of the baby-boom generation.

      The drop in long-term rates is especially surprising given the increase in the federal funds rate over the same period.
      Such a pattern is clearly without precedent in our recent experience.

      The unusual behavior of long-term interest rates first became apparent last year. In May and June of 2004, with a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve widely expected, market participants built large short positions in long-term debt instruments in anticipation of the increase in bond yields that has been historically associated with an initial rise in the federal funds rate.

      Accordingly, yields on ten-year Treasury notes rose during the spring of last year about 1 percentage point. But by summer,
      pressures emerged in the marketplace that drove long-term rates back down. In March of this year, long-term rates once again began to rise,
      but like last year,market forces came into play to make those increases short lived.

      Considerable debate remains among analysts as to the nature of those market forces.

      Whatever those forces are, they are surely global, because the decline in long-term interest rates in the past year
      is even more pronounced in major foreign financial markets than in the United States.

      Two distinct but overlapping developments appear to be at work: a longer-term trend decline in bond yields and an acceleration of that trend of late.
      Both developments are particularly evident in the interest rate applying to the one-year period ending ten years from today that can be inferred from the U.S. Treasury yield curve. In 1994, that so-called forward rate exceeded 8 percent. By mid-2004, it had declined to about 6-1/2 percent–an easing of about 15 basis points per year on average. Over the past year,that drop steepened, and the forward rate fell 130 basis points to less than 5 percent.

      Some, but not all, of the decade-long trend decline in that forward yield can be ascribed to expectations of lower inflation, a reduced risk premium resulting from less inflation volatility, and a smaller real term premium that seems due to a moderation of the business cycle over the past few decades. This decline in inflation expectations and risk premiums is a signal development. As I noted in my testimony before this Committee in February, the effective productive capacity of the global economy has substantially increased, in part because of the breakup of the Soviet Union and the integration of China and

  16. QUESTION:
    If the Chinese government sets the exchange rate at 4 yuan per 1 US dollar, then the….?
    CONSIDER THIS SITUATION…

    supply of chinese yuan will increase

    supply of chinese yuan will decrease

    quantity supplied of chinese yuan will decrease

    quantity supplied of chinese yuan will increase

    quantity demanded of chinese yuan will decrease

    • ANSWER:
      The current exchange rate is about 7.4 yuan to the dollar
      http://www.china.org.cn/english/TR-e/43805.htm
      most economists consider the yuan undervalued by 5 – 60%.
      http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:SB10001424052748703292704575393892006420412.html
      Going to 4 yuan to the dollar is going to leave the yuan heavily over-valued. That means Chinese exports will plummet, and may cause a recession in China – so no one in his right mind believes this is a serious scenario.

      But, if the Chinese government is serious about the exchange rate and is willing to maintain it by exchanging dollars for yuan, then everyone will sell their over-valued yuan back to China for dollars. If there are enough yuan outside China (probably not, but I don’t know) then the rush to sell yuan could break the yuan (as Soros broke the British pound).

      But because China still maintains capital controls, you can assume that the yuan inside China will be exchanged for dollars. (That would really bankrupt the Chinese government)

  17. QUESTION:
    To maintain a fixed-exchange-rate system, if the exchange rate moves below the fixed-exchange-rate level?
    then the central bank must:

    a) Buy foreign currency
    b) Sell foreign currency
    c) Raise taxes
    d) Decrease government spending

    It would be great if any of you guys can explain why the choice is correct and how does the choice actually works.

    Thanks.

    • ANSWER:
      Fixed exchange rate

      Typically, a government wanting to maintain a fixed exchange rate does so by either buying or selling its own currency on the open market. This is one reason governments maintain reserves of foreign currencies. If the exchange rate drifts too far below the desired rate, the government buys its own currency in the market using its reserves. This places greater demand on the market and pushes up the price of the currency. If the exchange rate drifts too far above the desired rate, the government sells its own currency, thus increasing its foreign reserves.

      Another, less used means of maintaining a fixed exchange rate is by simply making it illegal to trade currency at any other rate. This is difficult to enforce and often leads to a black market in foreign currency. Nonetheless, some countries are highly successful at using this method due to government monopolies over all money conversion. This was the method employed by the Chinese government to maintain a currency peg or tightly banded float against the US dollar. Throughout the 1990s, China was highly successful at maintaining a currency peg using a government monopoly over all currency conversion between the yuan and other currencies.

      Modified fixed rate

      Some governments, like China, have a modified fixed rate. They set a rate and then allow the rate to float within certain defined limits. Such limits are usually very small. These small allowed changes mean that the rate will always come back to the set figure after going up or down. For China, it is a way to put a small amount of free market in the currency while maintaining government control.

      Floating exchange rate

      The floating exchange rate, in its true form, allows the marketplace to set the rate. The forces of supply and demand determine the value of a currency. For example, when the US dollar is considered strong it will take more euros, the currency of most European countries, to buy. When the US dollar is considered weak or in decline the amount of euros needed to buy it will fall.

      Controlled floating rates

      In reality, floating rates do not solely change with the forces of the marketplace. Governments are constantly trying to fix the floating rate by taking action in the marketplace. Government action cannot fix the rate, but it can effect the rate through intervention. Such intervention involves either the buying or selling of currency, depending on which way the government wants the rate to go.

  18. QUESTION:
    what is exchange rate?what determines the exchange rates in a country?

    • ANSWER:
      In finance, the exchange rate between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other.

      For example an exchange rate of 120 Japanese yen (JPY, ) to the United States dollar (USD, $) means that JPY 120 is worth the same as USD 1. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets in the world. By some estimates, about 2 trillion USD worth of currency changes hands every day. (1)

      The market determines the price most of the time … however, China has been suspected by some economists to have withheld proper information in calculating some of what drives the market (GDP calculations & other Economic indicators like inflation … ect.) — in hopes to outbid many other countries in obtaining business (operations, plants, manufacturing).

      The Exchange Rate is similar to stocks; in that we depend on reliable disclosure of Economic Indicators. Changes like natural disasters, contracting major business like Wal-Mart, increased commerce (Trains, Roads, Air Transportation), and war influence the Exchange Rate.

  19. QUESTION:
    What exchange rate mechanism does China operate?

    • ANSWER:
      It is now managed on a managed float.

      The RMB is now moved to a managed floating exchange rate based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of foreign currencies. The daily trading price of the U.S. dollar against the RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market would be allowed to float within a narrow band of 0.3% around the central parity published by the People’s Bank of China (PBC); in a later announcement published on 18 May 2007, the band was extended to 0.5%.[24] The PRC has stated that the basket is dominated by the United States dollar, euro, Japanese yen and South Korean won, with a smaller proportion made up of the British pound, Thai baht, Russian ruble, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Singapore dollar[citation needed].

      On April 10, 2008, it traded at 6.9920 yuan per U.S. dollar, which is the first time in more than a decade that a dollar bought less than seven yuan,[25] and at 11.03630 yuan per euro.

      As of January 2010 Chinese and non-Chinese citizens have an annual quota to change a maximum of 50,000 USD. Exchange will only proceed if the applicant appears in person at the relevant bank, presents his passport resp. his Chinese ID as these deals are being centrally registered. The maximal withdrawal is 10,000 USD per day, the maximal purchase quota of USD is 500 per day. This stringent management of the currency leads to a bottled-up demand for exchange in both directions. It is viewed as a major tool to keep the currency peg i.e. to prevent inflows of ‘hot money’ (carry trade).

  20. QUESTION:
    What exchange rate mechanism does china operate?

    • ANSWER:
      It is now managed on a managed float.

      The RMB is now moved to a managed floating exchange rate based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of foreign currencies. The daily trading price of the U.S. dollar against the RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market would be allowed to float within a narrow band of 0.3% around the central parity published by the People’s Bank of China (PBC); in a later announcement published on 18 May 2007, the band was extended to 0.5%.[24] The PRC has stated that the basket is dominated by the United States dollar, euro, Japanese yen and South Korean won, with a smaller proportion made up of the British pound, Thai baht, Russian ruble, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Singapore dollar[citation needed].

      On April 10, 2008, it traded at 6.9920 yuan per U.S. dollar, which is the first time in more than a decade that a dollar bought less than seven yuan,[25] and at 11.03630 yuan per euro.

      As of January 2010 Chinese and non-Chinese citizens have an annual quota to change a maximum of 50,000 USD. Exchange will only proceed if the applicant appears in person at the relevant bank, presents his passport resp. his Chinese ID as these deals are being centrally registered. The maximal withdrawal is 10,000 USD per day, the maximal purchase quota of USD is 500 per day. This stringent management of the currency leads to a bottled-up demand for exchange in both directions. It is viewed as a major tool to keep the currency peg i.e. to prevent inflows of ‘hot money’ (carry trade).

  21. QUESTION:
    How is china benifiting from fixed exchange rate regimes?
    If China used floating exchange rate, in technical terms how would US with $ would effect the prices of chinese exports.
    Give example.

    • ANSWER:
      As a former Honey producer I did some research on China and why & how could they produce Honey so much cheaper than producers in the USA.

      Well, what I came up with was the exchange rates were such that for the amount I would pay 1 American worker to help me I could hire 60 Chinese workers.

      The fixed exchange rates are keeping workers wages low in China, while the Chinese government builds a huge surplus of foriegn currency reserves to use as investment seed money in the western world.

      Why would the west be worried about that?

      Well, the world balance of wealth could shift because for example, China could buy so much oil that oil products in the west go way up in price halting some productitivity in the western world where productitivity depends so much on oil.

  22. QUESTION:
    How would exchange rates effect uk company when importing products form abroad?

    • ANSWER:
      Exchange rates would have a massive effeect. lets say a UK company is importing goods from China – they will need to pay for those goods in US Dollars usually. The rate for GBP to USD has dropped more than 30% in the last year. So, the cost of the goods they have to pay for will also have gone up by the same amount.

      Of course if the pound strengthens and rates go up, the goods would become cheaper.

  23. QUESTION:
    Why don’t all countries keep their exchange rates low?
    There’s a lot in the news at the moment about the Chinese Yuan being artificially low. Are there any disadvantages to keeping your currency artificially low (except making other countries angry)? If not why doesn’t the US just retaliate by pegging its exchange rate?
    And why doesn’t the US just tax Chinese imports to the value of the unfair disparity?
    Can anyone actually answer the questions above though?

    • ANSWER:
      The disadvantage of low exchange rate is that imported goods and foreign trips are more expensive. China feels this is a price worth paying for increased exports that keep its economy growing.

      US could tax Chinese imports, but then Chinese could retaliate by selling the US government debt (Treasury bills) that they hold, decreasing its price and effectively increasing interest rate that US government pays on the money it borrows to cover the budget deficit. Which will lead to higher taxes on US consumers.

  24. QUESTION:
    Domestic monetary policies under fixed exchange rates?
    If countries lose the ability to manage their domestic monetary policies under fixed exchange rates, why would they ever choose to do so?

    • ANSWER:
      With a fixed exchange rate, trading with other countries becomes easier. Look at China, since the value of their currency is pegged to the dollar trade becomes easier. The same is true for the EU. All the countries involved are very depended on exporting, and with one currency it becomes easier since domestic business are less exposed risk, since currency flucuations can’t happen.

  25. QUESTION:
    What will happen to the bilateral nominal exchange rate for sterling against the US dollar when…?
    1)It is in a freely floating exchange rate system .
    2)If the sterling value of uk imports from the US is higher than the sterling value of UK exports to the US.

    • ANSWER:
      1. The bilateral exchange rate has very little to do with the bilateral balance of trade. Exchange rates are part of and depend on an entire system and the overall trade patterns. Otherwise, there would be opportunities for arbitrage.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage

      http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triangulararbitrage.asp#axzz23yCUaOv3

      For a specific example, suppose the U.S. suddenly exported an extra X to the U.K. without importing more from the U.K.; at the same time the U.K. exported and extra X to China; and China exported an extra X to the US.

      Then the US-UK imbalance increases, but the net balance of all three countries stays the same. So why would the exchange rates change?

      Of course, if the U.S. and the U.K. were the only countries in the world, then their exchange rate would be the only one that counted, but you didn’t say that; you explicitly said “bilateral” suggesting that there were other exchange rates.

      2. When it comes to determining the value of the dollar, the balance of trade plays a very small role. Just look at the U.S. trade deficit and how it grew from 1992 through 2009.
      http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
      Here is a chart of the value of the U.S. dollar: it rose from ’95 through 2002 and then fell from 2002 to 2009.
      http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TWEXB
      How does that correlate with the trade deficit when the trade deficit was rising throughout?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market#Determinants_of_exchange_rates

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange_rate#Fluctuations_in_exchange_rates

  26. QUESTION:
    Why does China buying USA bonds therefore peg the yuan to dollar exchange rate as low and stabilise the ER ?
    I am not an economist. If the USA runs up debt serviced by bonds, at present China buys the debt as bonds, gilts etc. This sounds ominous. This encourages US debt and keeps bond yields low, as they can easily find a buyer at present ? Surely it can all go horribly wrong if China, amongst others, stop buying ? My real question is why do they buy up US debt? What is the advantage for China in terms of dollar yuan exchange rates ?

    • ANSWER:
      The advantage for China is that it keeps exports high, keeping the economy growing and the people happy.
      They have a lot of US dollars from the export business, so they invest in US dollar assets. They keep thier reserves of US dollars high to keep thier currency peg in place.
      If China stopped buying what would happen? I suspect that the US dollar would loose value, and imports to the US decrease, exports increase, a bit inflationary for the US, and might push up interest rates a bit, increasing the savings rate at home, would not be a bad thing. I doubt it would spell any sort of catastrophy.

  27. QUESTION:
    Importance and Differences in foreign currency exchange rates?
    I am trying to understand the importance of foreign currency exchange rates. Why would economists care that today the dollar converts to x amount of Chinese currency for example? Also why would economist care that today the dollar is stronger or weaker in the same day in different countries such as China, Japan or others?

    I am just using those countries as examples, nothing special. I really would like to know.

    Thanks in advance

    • ANSWER:
      Shifting exchange rates affect the costs of imported and exported goods and services, and hence, the profitability of all kinds of different businesses.

      That’s the short answer.

      If, all the sudden, the dollar gets weaker, we have to trade more of them to get someone else’s currency, and then import oil. So gas’d cost more.

      If, all the sudden, the dollar gets stronger, the other people have to trade more of their currency to get the same amount of dollars. So it’s harder to export, because our stuff is now more expensive to the rest of the world.

  28. QUESTION:
    Will I get a better exchange rate from GBP to Chinese Yuan, if I change the cash in China?
    I have been to a bureu de change and a travel agent , one offered me an exchange rate of 1 = 13.25 yuan, the other offered me 13.28. I checked the international rates and the actual exchange rate is 14.12. Any suggestions are most welcome.

    • ANSWER:
      Yes you get a much netter rate in China. If you fly into Beijing Capitol airport, after you come through security and into the baggage hall, if you look straight in front of you (to the right of the exit), you will see a Bureau de Change (probaly Bank Of China, I’m not sure) but they are very efficient there, and you’ll get as good a rate there as anywhere else in Beijing. It also means you have the local currency for a taxi. Beware of being offered taxis inside the airport, always go outside to the official taxi rank, there’s much less chance of you being ripped off.
      Enjoy your trip

  29. QUESTION:
    what are the mechanics of how china works to keep it’s exchange rate against the dollar low?
    i do believe that china works to keep it’s exchange rate against the dollar low, i would like some insight into the mechanics of how they do it

    • ANSWER:
      China has a large trade surplus with the US which causes them to accumulate $ and because they have no private financial market the excess $ are all under the control of their central bank. Since inflow must match outflows of $, if left up to currency markets their exchange rate with $ would rise until the trade surplus disappeared. However the Chinese central bank buys US securities, mostly our government debt to keep the the inflows and out flows balanced while maintaining their trade surplus. That is why we owe them so much money.

  30. QUESTION:
    Why is china bigger at ppp exchange rate than at market exchange rate?

    • ANSWER:
      That is how PPP exchange rate works.

      Market exchange rate makes 1 Chinese Yuan = 0.16 US Dollar.

      However, when we calculate the PPP exchange rate, we are trying to determine the spending power of a currency in its native country.

      For example, if you were to buy 1 litre of milk in China for 1 Yuan, it does not mean that you will be able to but 1 litre of milk in US for 0.16 Dollars. So, a man living in US and earning 16,000 US Dollars a month would be less rich that a man living in China and earning 100,000 Yuan. This is because the Chinese man can buy more things from his 100,000 Yuan than the above American.

      By this process, the PPP exchange rate of China is showing that the GDP of China is actually bigger than it seems.

  31. QUESTION:
    Exchange rates in China?
    Can you tell me the current Bank of China exchange rates for both cash and travellers cheques for UK Pounds sterling and US Dollars. Thanks.

    • ANSWER:
      UK Pounds – 1 to 15 rmb

      USD – 1 to 7.57

  32. QUESTION:
    Please tell me about China’s exchange rate regime.?
    Hello.. please help me.. what precisely is the exchange rate regime that China has put into place since 2005? should other third world nations adopt a similar exchange rate regime?
    thanks

    • ANSWER:
      They have a fixed exchange rate, but we don’t know it.

      Most of the time it helps their politics.

  33. QUESTION:
    Is China’s currency exchange rate stable or has it fluctuated a lot?
    What has influenced it to be like that?

    • ANSWER:
      Its exchange rate with the U.S. dollar has been very stable because China essentially pegs its currency to the dollar.

      That means that its exchange rate with other currencies, such as the Euro and the yen are not at all stable.
      http://www.measuringworth.org/exchangeglobal/
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro#Against_other_major_currencies

      http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

  34. QUESTION:
    Exchange Rates Question!?
    ok so ive been wondering this for the past 3 weeks.
    when the exchange rate of something is say 1 dollar:100 yen (just for example) does that mean that if im building a house that costs 0,000 it will only cost ,000 dollars in yen? if that makes sense..

    if a candy bar in america costs 1 dollar, and i exchange 1 dollar for 100 yen, does that mean that same candy bar costs 100 yen in china?

    and does that mean that millionaires in america could be billionaires in another country?

    im not sure if im asking this right but i hope you get what im saying.

    • ANSWER:
      kinda… you get more for your money if you go to china. your candy bar example.. the candy in china would cost around 20-30yen…

  35. QUESTION:
    what is china’s exchange rate system?

    • ANSWER:
      Economic definition: currency band.

      The yuan trades within a narrow exchange rate band determined by the chinese central bank.

  36. QUESTION:
    Why does China seek to manipulate the exchange rate between the U.S. and China?

    • ANSWER:
      Its called Merchantilism. Japan and South Korea did something similar.

      Germany has been doing it to the Euro zone. The USA did it to other countries after WWII.

      If China, or rather because China suppresses its currency with a US$ peg. Its products are cheaper than US products. This means jobs and investment money flows into China.

      The idea is to play the merchantilist game for a few decades. In those decades you build up your infrastructure and use this period to improve the standard of living and your people.

      Then you’re supposed to break free and compete on more even terms (as you cannot compete on price forever). When your economies are more of an even match, technically and when your people are highly educated enough. The problem is it a hard cycle to break. And if the cycle does break it can be rather damaging.

      S Korea was forced to break the merchantilist game around 1998. When its currency imploded and the US$ peg was broken. This forced them to compete on a more level field. And they did very well. What with Samsung/LG being big in electronics. Hyundai slamming other car makers etc.

      While Japan continued it (they manipulate their currency by printing) as they never really broke free even though their infrastructure and economy is quite advanced.

  37. QUESTION:
    Currency exchange for china?
    I live in Europe and I will travel to china and my question is where to make exchange with the better price in my country before I leave or when I arrive to china?
    Thanks!

    • ANSWER:
      The best is to use credit cards, the exchange rates are almost the same, there’s no big difference, unless you’re planning to take in a lot of cash, my suggestion is changed about 300 Euros to Chinese yuan in your country, that’ll be more than enough for whatever means of transport you take when you land in China, the rest you exchange them in China. In China there are no forex exchanges in the streets (unless HK, Macau and in the borders or airports), the only place you can exchange your foreign currency is in Chinese main banks like Bank of China.

  38. QUESTION:
    If china unpegs the yuan, what is the predicted new exchange rate?
    If the Chinese government unpeg the yuan, how much can we expect it to change, and in what direction? are we looking at a small change or a large one? How much warning will we have, and when will it occur?

    • ANSWER:
      JP Morgan Chase expects: U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate or up to 6.5 at the end of this year.

  39. QUESTION:
    Inflation and Exchange rate of China?
    Inflation is seriously high in China, and the government issued a large amount of money in last years, but why the exchange rate of chinese yuan is up-valued?

    • ANSWER:
      The Chinese are playing a dangerous game and keeping the Yuan low so that they can export easily, however rising inflation is the consequence.

  40. QUESTION:
    Question on China’s exchange rate policy?
    I read in the magazine The Economist that China’s exchange rate policy leads to a seriously undervalued the yuan and this helped to bolster unfairly China’s trade surplus with the West eg. the USA’s multi billion dollar trade deficit.

    I understand that production costs are lower in China, and it is industrialising, but the article implied that the ‘unfair’ exchange rate policy stopped the appreciation of the yuan which would naturally occur if Chinese exports were high and increasing as foerign importers bought into the yuan to purchace Chinese products, as is occuring on a massive scale.

    So what is the policy of the Chinese, and how does this prevent the appreciation of the yuan?

    BTW I don’t have much of a grounding in economics so if you are kind enough to answer me then please if possible try and keep your response jargon free – however I am willing to do a little homework if necessary.

    • ANSWER:
      yes that is true that China’s exchange rate policy leads to a seriously undervalued the yuan .now it is 1us $=7.45 yuan appoximately.but indeed it should be 1us $ to 5 yuan or less.

  41. QUESTION:
    Sending money to China by Paypal………?
    Anyone have any experience sending money to China by Paypal? I know the charges, but cannot find out the all-important exchange rate, to compare with other options.
    P.S. Paypal do not deal in Chinese currency, and cannot tell me the exchange rate offered in China. My contact in China has asked over there, but cannot get an answer from their Chinese office. One web site suggests it is the best deal, but I want to compare it with other companies.

    • ANSWER:
      Ok, you can find the exchange rate on the website of bank of China, http://www.boc.cn/en/static/index.html , from which you can find most of the currency that they offer exchanges, and as you pal via paypal, so the rate you need to choose is called Buying Rate, which means the rate at which the bank would buy from your receiver.

      And due to the fact that Chinese Yuan is now tied with a basket of currencies such as USD, EURO and JPY, it fluctuates all the day.

  42. QUESTION:
    International trade/exchange rates question?
    Assume Russia and China trade exclusively with each other and the exchange rate between them is flexible:

    1. Assume Russians want more goods that are made in China. Explain how this would impact the demand for Russian ruble and the international value of the ruble.
    2. Assume there is an increase in real interest rates in China. This increase does not consequently happen in Russia. Explain how this change in real interest rates affecrs the international value of a ruble and the quantity of rubles suppled in the foreign exchange market.

    All these facts are theoretical. This is a Macro economics question and I have no idea how to approach it. =[

    • ANSWER:
      If you assume that the Chinese don’t increase their demand for Russian goods and assets. Then the Russian Rouble will go down relative to the Chinese Rembini, when Russians buy more Chinese goods. Because the demand for Chinese Rembini would increase relative to the demand for the Russian Rouble.

      But you can assume like that for theoretical purposes only. Because quite often such assumptions are not true in real life.

      In theory, higher interest rate usually creates higher demand for the currency. Which makes its exchange rate go up relative to lower interest rate currencies.

      But there are many other factors influencing exchange rates besides the interest rate. And in practice, higher interest rates don’t always lead to higher exchange rates.

  43. QUESTION:
    Rate Exchange Questions?
    1. If China (for example) wants to buy something from the USA (US is exporting), then that means China
    has to pay in US dollars (currency of origin). Does that mean that the rate of the US dollar will go up?

    2. If the rate of the US dollar went down, are we developing (favorable OR unfavorable) balance of trade?

    • ANSWER:
      1. China wants to buy something from the USA = an increase in demand for american exports. increase in demand for american goods = increase in demand for american currency = increase in value of american currency.
      (if you have a picky professor, he will probably want some other wording than ”rate of the US dollar.” he’ll probably want you to say what happens to the exchange rate.)

      2. favorable (probably talking about the current situation). we are running a capital account deficit, and that is why the FED is purposefully trying to take actions that will lead to the weakening of the US dollar. A cheaper dollar means that our imports will look better to other countries, and thus they will want to buy more of our stuff. so, hopefully they will buy more of our stuff (imports have increased 13 % in the last few years I believe), which will eventually lead to an offsetting of the C.A. deficit.

      let me know if that helps.

  44. QUESTION:
    Who control the exchange rate policy?
    Canada, Mexico, Euro, Japan, China, Thailand; In these countries who is controlling the exchange rate policy?
    For example, in USA, the Federal Reserve controls it.
    Thanks.

    • ANSWER:
      Only the Euro and US dollar are determined by demand and supply in the money market. But the FED or central bank can influence the market by changing monetary policy,including fund or policy rate. The rest is controlled by the central bank.The Yen is mostly determined by the free market.But the central bank will intervene sometimes. And the central bank is working under the finance minister.The Yuan is determined solely by the central bank,by pegging to the US dollar with capital control.The Thai baht is determined by the central bank using basket of currency.It is called a managed exchange rate with capital control.Canada is using a fixation with floating as an exchange rate policy. But,the bank of Canada has no specific target value and has not intervened in foreign exchange market since 1998. Mexico has enter a floating rate policy since 1994. It has used the interest rate targeting to intervene the exchange rate.

  45. QUESTION:
    How a exchange rate is determined?
    What is exchange rate?
    Why it differs?
    Tell exactly and simply.
    A country which have High exchange rates is rich?
    Eg:Oman is rich than US?
    Why Oman dinar is equal to 2 dollars(not certainly,but its valuable than US dollar)?

    • ANSWER:
      Currencies of major nations are traded in market exchanges in the world’s key financial centers, with the rates determined by what buyers and sellers bid and ask. Governments concerned about the exchange rates of their currencies sometimes intervene in this trading to affect the rates. Some countries like China manipulate or control their currency’s exchange rate rather than allowing the open market to set it. Generally, the strength or weakness of a nation’s economy will determine whether the exchange value of their currency goes up or down relative to other key currencies. For example, when a country’s economy like Greece’s is weak because of public debt and low GDP (gross domestic product), its currency will trade at a lower value relative to the currencies of nations with stronger economies.

      The rate or value an individual person like a tourist can exchange his currency for, such as the dollar for the euro, depends on what an individual exchange facility like a bank will offer.

  46. QUESTION:
    Is there currently a (fixed) pegged currency exchange rate between the US and China?
    Is there currently a (fixed) pegged currency exchange rate between the US and China?

    • ANSWER:
      The central bank of china allows it to fluctuate within very narrow limits, but it does peg its value to the US dollar for strategic trade policy reasons.

  47. QUESTION:
    Currency Exchange Rates?
    The local travel agency is charging a 4% fee + s/h to exchange money for me for my trip to China. The money will be shipped to the travel agent then handed off to me.

    How does this rate compare with rates at the airport or banks?

    Help!

    • ANSWER:
      if you go to china, it will be a small fee or free to convert. when you come back, convert it back for free.

  48. QUESTION:
    How to find the exchange rate?
    Find the exchange rates for China given:

    In the USA, the currency is the USD, the exchange rate = 1, the Price of BM in local currency = 3.41, and the PPP exchange rate = 1.

    In China, the currency is the Yuan, the exchange rate = __?__, the Price of BM in local currency = 11.00, and the PPP exchange rate = __?__

    (Note: You may get answers in which a unit of it costs 0.2 or 0.05 ie 20 cents or even half a cent)
    (Note2: He says using finance.yahoo.com/currency may help)

    **I have to do this with a few countries, so please show me how to do it!

    Thanks:)

    • ANSWER:
      PPP = 11/3.41

      plain exchange rate comes from http://finance.yahoo.com/currency

  49. QUESTION:
    Do anyone know about What the are US, China, Japan and Brazil exchange rates used?
    What are the US, CHina, Japan and Brazil Exchange rates used?

    • ANSWER:
      There is a great site for up to date currency conversion rates:

      http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/mar…

      One good thing about this site is that is shows the exchange rate both ways (i.e. dollars to pounds and pounds to dollars).

      Any time you buy or sell a product or service or investment across national boundaries, you need to convert currencies.

  50. QUESTION:
    Why the Chinese Yuan and the US Dollar are not settling the exchange rate once and for all?

    • ANSWER:
      International exchange rate of each currency facilitates regulated international trade. But the Chinese currency as on date does not have a regulated exchange rate which once decided is going to unsettle the economy of those countries who have made huge investments in China. The China government has deliberately kept it undervalued vis a vis the US Dollar to help its export. The US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s next visit to China might spell some surprise on this issue. But, sooner the better!


exchange rates china

April 25, 2014

Do Markets Top on Good News?

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , , — admin @ 4:42 pm

It’s a good thing that Macro Man still has a full head of hair, because with the amount he’s been scratching it recently he’d have some awful marks without it.  Equities have once again nudged close to the highs of the year, the level where they’ve failed time and time again in 2014.     For most of the last few months, Macro Man’s taken it almost as an article of faith that stocks would roll over come May, both because of the poor historical performance and the persistently weak seasonality in recent years.

In that vein, he’s taken some length off the table, because there’s no point having a well-thought out plan if you aren’t going to stick to it.   By the same token, however, it behooves him to stress-test the view periodically; it’s still a bit cold and windy to be a lazy sunbather.

How bad is the seasonality in May, actually?   Does it depend on the prior four months of the year?  First, to get a sense of perspective, Macro Man checked the performance of the SPX in every month since 1980.  He was surprised to see that the average return is actually pretty solid: +0.93%.   What’s also interesting is that pockets of weakness in May tend to cluster, as can be seen in ’81-’84, ’98-’02, and of course 2010-12.   Frankly, he is a little embarrassed to admit that he forgot that the SPX actually rallied in May of last year, so swept up was he in Tapergeddon and its impact upon the Japan trade.  Anyhow, last year’s 2% rally in May was atypically large to be in a middle of one of these clusters.

What if we go further back?  Macro Man parsed data going back to 1929.  Unsurprisingly, the well-known historical pattern emerges, with the average return for the month coming in at -0.06%.   How much of this was down to bear-market performance, however?   Macro Man created a simple study to test.

Using both the full dataset since 1929, as well as the “modern” dataset since 1980, Macro Man tested to see what May’s performance was like depending on the first four months’ returns.  Specifically, he checked the average return in May when the index ended April down on the year, the average return when it was up more than 5%, and the average return for everything in between.  The results are summarized in the table below.


As you can see, when the index is modestly up on the year through April, May has historically been a very strong month.  Indeed, the 1.88% return since 1980 is higher than the average full-sample return for any individual month, even December.   As of Thursday’s close, the SPX is up 1.64% year to date.   Hmmmmm…….

All of thiscertainly merits a pause for thought.  However, Macro Man cannot get the favourite saying of one of his mates out of his head: “markets top on good news.”  To be honest, he hasn’t studied this in any great depth, so he doesn’t actually know if it’s true.   It certainly sounds like one of those aphorisms that ought to be true, even if it isn’t.

Regardless, the news has certainly been fairly decent recently, on both the macro side (a solid durables report) and the micro side (some of those earnings look great, and golly, Apple’s gonna split!)  Moreover, the ECB looks like it has pushed all of its chips to the centre of the table (using another tired poker anaolgy),  as the recent rhetoric on both rates and the currency have been deafening.  Next Wednesday’s CPI is not to be missed, and with excess liquidity breaking below the magic 100 bio barrier, if the ECB is going to act, it should come next month.


Of course, a cynic might suggest that absent a QE program for which there is currently insufficient infrastructure, a refi/depo rate cut will be the last throw of the dice, the bluff that the market will call.  (Yet another card analogy!)  Moreover, it is not altogether clear to Macro Man that charging banks for holding cash, thereby cutting into their NIM, is an unalloyed positive.   He could therefore have some sympathy that that “good news” could be sold.

At the same time, next week’s US payroll figure also looms large.   If we ever do get a bang-up employment print, Janet Yellen will no doubt throw a party (to which she’d wear a polka-dot dress?)  to celebrate the good news.  Fixed income markets, on the other hand, might throw a public execution of the front end and belly.   5s-30s already looks like flattening inexorably…how long before 2s-10s follow?   And how will equities react?   “Not well” would appear to be a sensible guess.


As such, Macro Man finds himself in sympathy with his friend’s aphorism, whether it be spurious or no.  His gut tells him that a top is close and that good news will in fact be bad news…potentially very much so.   His head, on the other hand, tells him that the boogie man in the seasonality closet may not actually exist.

In the end, he is left with higher conviction….that he doesn’t currently possess an edge.  As such, he will stick to the process, follow the plan, and retreat further to the sidelines, awaiting further clarity one way or another.  When it comes, in whichever direction…..well, that really will be good news.

April 24, 2014

A Trip to the Cinema

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , — admin @ 4:43 pm

Macro Man recently finished reading Flash Boys, which was certainly entertaining if somewhat incomplete.  While some of the other explorations of high-frequency trading are evidently more thorough, Michael Lewis is close to unparalleled in his ability to craft a storyline from specialist arcana that can appeal to the layman.  Who could have imagined, for example, that Moneyball (a book about quantitative analysis in baseball) would turn into a film featuring Brad Pitt?

As his mind wandered the other day, Macro Man found himself wondering who might play the relevant characters in a film version of Flash Boys.  Lost in thought, it occurred to him that in some ways, the film had already been made.   For what better description of Lewis’s book could you come up with than Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines?


At the same time, the very best-selling book on Amazon is the English translation of a 700 page book by French economist Thomas Piketty: Capital in the Twenty-First Century.  The book has become something of a phenomenon, generating reams of lavish praise or opprobrium, generally depending on the existing views of the reviewer.   Either way, it struck your author that the crux of Piketty’s tome, with its focus on income inequality, could be summarized in the title of the old Bogart/Bacall vehicle: To Have and Have Not

This naturally set Macro Man off to thinking what other notable economic and financial books may already have been “inadvertently” made into films already.

A couple of years ago, Daniel Kahneman wrote an excellent book that explores the insights gained from his academic career in Thinking, Fast and Slow.   The description of the two modes of thought resonated with Macro Man, and he thoroughly enjoyed the book.   The title, meanwhile, recalls the story of Charly (itself taken from Flowers for Algernon), a mentally handicapped man who undergoes a procedure that renders him a genius.

One of the most prominent financial commentators of the last decade is, like him or loathe him, Nicholas Nassim Taleb.  In Fooled by Randomness he popularized the notion of the “Black Swan”, and then followed up by writing a book with that very name.  Following the financial crisis, of course, the Fed and other central banks have done their utmost (a little bit of regulation and lot of  financial repression) to stave off further market volatility.  For the time being, therefore, the most appropriate film adaptation of the Taleb corpus would be Bye-Bye Blackbird.  (Macro Man can’t wait to see the sequel, though…)

 

Finally, one of the great debates of the post-crisis era has been the appropriate role of fiscal policy.  In the Eurozone, for example, economic recovery has been stayed by Calvinist fiscal austerity…but the prior economic crisis was the result of market rejection of Dionysian fiscal profligacy.   Regrettably but unsurprisingly, demagogues on both sides of the fiscal debate have tended to employ less-than-nuanced arguments in favour of their viewpoint.  One prominent example is of course Paul Krugman, a persistent advocate for fiscal spending who appears unwilling to acknowledge the potential downsides of such a strategy (viz. the Eurozone.)  As such, Macro Man wonders if his Economics textbook could not be cast as a remake of Brewster’s Millions, the film in which Richard Pryor must spend absurd amounts of someone’s else’s money on unproductive services as a means of enriching himself….

Readers are of course invited (nay, encouraged) to come up with their own film adaptations in the comments section.   As for those hoping for a sober analysis of corporate earnings or the RBNZ…sorry, better luck tomorrow!

April 23, 2014

Testing Tuesdays

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , — admin @ 4:42 pm

Bob Geldof famously doesn’t like Mondays, a sentiment which is likely shared amongst wide swathes of the population.    He presumably has no beef with Tuesdays, and if the populace at large is fairly neutral on the second day of the workweek, the same can probably not be said for equity punters.  For as Citi’s Brent Donnelly pointed out yesterday, the stock market’s performance on Tuesday has been nothing short of spectacular.

Perhaps it’s mere coincidence or a statistical quirk.   Maybe it’s the sign of dark forces at work.  Frankly, Macro Man doesn’t know.  All he can say is that thus far in 2014, the SPX has rallied an impressive 8.75% on Tuesdays….and dropped a cumulative 6% on the other four days of the week.


Now, when Macro Man was reminded of this phenomenon, he thought it sounded a little familiar, so he did a little digging.  Sure enough, just last year, the cumulative week 17 performance on Tuesdays was 7.89% versus just 2.71% for the other four days.  In fact, the SPX started the year by rallying on 19 of the first 22 Tuesdays, a not dissimilar hit rate to 2014’s 15 out of 17.  So what happened next?

To a large extent, the outperformance evened out.   Indeed, from week 22 onwards, the SPX was down nearly a percent on Tuesdays, versus a cumulative rally of nearly 13% on other days.  While the index still punched above its weight for the year as a whole, the discrepancy wasn’t nearly as notable as it is today (or indeed was a year ago.)  If anyone has a rational explanation for why Tuesdays have been so great for the first 4-5 months over the last couple of years, Macro Man would love to hear it.   Failing that, he’d suggest that anyone betting on a sustained continuation of this outperformance trend might find themselves tweaking the Boomntown Rats song before too long.

Elsewhere, sterling has been rather notable for its strength in recent days, with cable pushing to its highest level since 2009.  To be sure, some of this strength reflects the relative resilience of the UK data, which itself has filtered through into rate markets.  Nevertheless, it does look like sterling might be a little ahead of itself, even if one accepts that current rate differentials are justified.


That in and of itself is an open question.   While economic activity is clearly quite brisk (and house prices in the Southeast downright rampant), CPI inflation is at its lowest level in 5 years.   Given that Woodfordite central banks pursue a function wherein Policy target = min( employment, CPI, GDP), this should provide ample opportunity for Mark Carney to contrive excuses to keep policy unchanged, perhaps up until the election.

Indeed, Macro Man’s own work suggests that appropriate rates based on the post-crisis, pre-Carney reaction function of the BOE are already quite a bit lower than they were a few months ago given the drop in inflation.  As such, it would appear that the in the near term at least, the prospect of UK rate rises might be close to fully priced…


Moreover, the Scottish referendum is now less than six months away, and the polls seem to be swinging ever closer to a dead heat.  History suggests that constitutional referenda  tend to exact an ex ante risk premium in currency markets (viz. the euro in 2005 and the CAD in 1995) which at the moment is absent from sterling.  As such, from Macro Man’s perch, sterling should carry a large ‘caveat emptor’ sign at current levels.

Finally, it will be interesting to see if UKIP follows through on its plans to make the newly-available David Moyes its Head of Strategy.   After all, if he can keep Manchester United out of Europe…..

April 22, 2014

A Market Vignette

Filed under: Forex Strategies — Tags: , — admin @ 4:44 pm

In the absence of anything interesting to say about a drearily dull start to the week, Macro Man thought he would share a small vignette of what the market was like two decades ago.

Macro Man’s very first job upon graduation from university was in Chicago, working for a very well-known option market-making firm.  Having acquired an interest in foreign exchange while studying abroad during the ’92 ERM crisis, he was assigned to work at the currency options pit of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as a trading assistant.

Before arriving in Chicago in July of 1993, he wasn’t really sure what to expect.  Having attended a liberal arts university, he had taken no finance courses; as such, the only options knowledge he possessed was what he’d crammed for the interview to get the job in the first place.

From what he could tell, however, it was pretty complicated stuff.  The firm he was joining had a reputation for being staffed with really smart people (naturally- they’d hired Macro Man!), so he assumed that the business generally was populated by the types of guys who broke the bell curve in collegiate math courses.  After all, the chaps on TV who talked about the stock market all sounded pretty clever, and anyone who’d read Liars Poker knew that they were bottom of the intellectual heap, right?

The job, as it was explained to Macro Man during the offer, was to assist the firm’s option traders in the CME pits while slowly acquiring sufficient practical and classroom knowledge to eventually become a trader himself.  All in all, it promised to be intellectually stimulating while serving up the odd jolt of adrenaline when things got a little crazy.

Upon starting the job, your author found that (unsurprisingly, in retrospect) the quotidian aspects of the job were somewhat more mundane than anticipated.  Perhaps he should have been warned when he found that all the traders referred to his yellow-coated brethren as mere “clerks” rather than the more elevated “trading assistants,” though given that most of his early-career tasks were indeed clerical, the shoe fit (and he wore it.)

What was really shocking, however, is when he actually went to the exchange floor to work during trading hours.  The roar of the floor, particularly during a data release, was startling but hardly surprising.   No,what really opened his eyes was the people.

Contrary to expectation, the floor was not primarily populated calculus curve-breakers.   Oh sure, some of the options guys were really smart, both in an academic and street sense.  The futures traders and brokers, on the other hand, while hard workers and good at their jobs, were more notable for the size of their beer guts than their IQs.   These were salt-of-the-earth guys, many of whom might be digging ditches if they weren’t on the floor.

There is perhaps no other job in the world where flatulence is as much of an asset as it is on an exchange floor.  Have you been squeezed out of a good location in the pit?  Drop a little “bomb” and the crowd will part like the Red Sea, allowing you to occupy your preferred spot.  Certain traders developed a knack for letting fly right before a large order came into the pit, thus ensuring that they could occupy the prime real estate in front of the broker and do a large portion of the trade.

In  Macro Man’s second week of work, the senior trader he was clerking for got into a fistfight with a rival trader.   This was not a typical baseball fight with lots of milling around and little actual violence; this was a proper punch up.   Macro Man happened to be on the edge of the pit to pick up some trading cards from said trader (nicknamed ‘Johnny Ya-ya’) and saw the whole thing unfold before him.   He instinctively grabbed Ya-ya’s opponent but was ordered instantly to let him go and leave the pit.

After the fracas broke up, Ya-ya stormed off of the trading floor.   With one brief exception a few months later, he never returned, having transitioned to an “upstairs” job trading OTC options.

One aspect of the floor that Macro Man remembers fondly was the prevalence of ridiculous bets.   Traders, clerks, and  brokers would have a flutter on everything, from the first day of snow (it was Halloween 1993, if memory serves) to the height of the trading floor (architectural plans were consulted) to who would win a fight between a killer whale and a great white shark (Macro Man rang the Chicago aquarium to get an expert answer on this one, perhaps inspiring this show.)

There were three bets, however, that still resonate with your author to this day.   The superstitious might even suggest that they offered foreshadowing of the financial crisis and its aftermath.

A foot of cockroaches.   There was a broker in the Deutsche mark option pit called Chris who was a bit different from a lot of the guys- he seemed older and he wore a pony tail, which wasn’t a common barnet on the CME in the early 90’s.  Oh, and he claimed he could eat a foot of cockroaches (i.e., twelve inches’ worth of cockroaches laid end to end.)

Naturally, this inspired a modicum of skepticism from other denizens of the DEM pit, so a few friendly wagers were offered…and then a few more….and a few more.  Brokers bet with brokers, traders with traders, clerks with clerks.  Eventually, after work one day, the cockroaches were somehow procured, laid end to end…..and duly consumed.  Bettors on Chris were paid out, and Macro Man learned very early on that not only is there never only one cockroach, but that even the most foul of (financial) fare will usually find a consumer.

The NCAA tournament.  Betting on the NCAA college basketball tournament was rife, unsurprisingly.   Unlike the relative tedium of filling in brackets and tracking overall accuracy, NCAA betting CME-style was devastatingly simple.    The winner of the tourney was worth $100; everyone else was worth nothing.  Markets were made in each of the teams, and you were obligated to keep track of which teams you bought and sold, in which quantity, with whom, on the free trading cards that that were a staple of the CME.

This was all well and good, provided that one sized their positions correctly and managed risk.   In many ways, this sort of trading taught neophytes like your author as much about risk management as his professional activities, given that it was our own wealth on the line.  Unfortunately, not everyone learned his lesson.   A clerk for a rival trading company owned by a French bank fared rather poorly, losing some $15,000 in the process to all manner of floor personnel.  (Remember, this was more than two decades ago, so the sum was almost certainly in excess of half of his annual salary.)

This proved to be quite a thorny problem, as the kid couldn’t pay, which irritated his creditors rather considerably.   Eventually, a compromise of sorts was reached:  the clerk was sacked and the bank made good on his debts to avoid the stigma of having stitched up the rest of the floor.   This was quite an early indoctrination into the concept of “if you lose enough money, eventually somebody will bail you out for ‘the common good.'”

Fifty Reese’s Cups.    On the wall of the exchange, surrounding every pit, there were rows of little boxes with phone turrets where clerks would accept orders from “upstairs” and signal them into the pit.   There was a guy who assisted one of these phone clerks who was big.  Not Big Ten football lineman big, Augustus Gloop big.   As memory serves, he took a bit of ribbing about his size, but was generally good-natured about it.

Somehow, one day the phone guys started talking about Reese’s peanut butter cups, and how many one could eat at a single sitting.   One thing led to another, and the gauntlet was thrown down as to whether Augustus could eat 50 Reese’s cups.   Call it a financial version of Cool Hand Luke.

As in the film, the entire proposition inspired a raft of betting, except in hundreds and thousands rather than twos and tens.   Consensus was probably tilted very slightly in Augustus’s favour until someone thought to ask him if he liked Reese’s cups.   “They’re my favourite,” he replied with a glint in his eye, thereby spurring a frenzy of betting on “Yes.”

As with the cockroaches, the Reese’s Bacchanalia was scheduled for after the close on some appointed day.   In the run-up to the eat-a-thon market anticipation built to a fever pitch, and even those benighted souls with nothing riding on it were eager to see if Augustus could emulate Paul Newman.

Alas, it was not to be.  On the morning of the appointed day, the news rippled through the trading floor: the bet was off.   Apparently Augustus, in a rare fit of concern over the state of his well-being, had taken the outlandish step of consulting a physician about the proceedings.   This worthy individual had warned him of the potentially disastrous consequences of scarfing that much candy in one sitting (presumably hyperglycemia.) 

The moral of the story, of course, is that it is possible to have too much of a good thing, even a favourite sweet.   Readers will no doubt have deduced by now where Macro Man stands on this issue vis-a-vis the raft of easing measures served up by Willy Wonka the Fed and BOE, among others.

‘Tis a pity that the professors who run monetary policy these days never spent any time on the Merc floor.   Perhaps Chris, the wayward clerk, and Augustus could have taught them a thing or two…

Uk Visitor Visa

Filed under: Currency Charts — Tags: , — admin @ 2:44 am

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Frequently Asked Questions

  1. QUESTION:
    How to Extend UK Visitors Visa?
    I am British born & left UK aged 35. I have lived outside uk for 15 yrs. My Partner is Asian born and we have been together for 13 months. We would like to move to and live in UK for 9 months. Any ideas how to extend the 6 month visitors limit without getting married? Also as an alternative could we go to Italy for 3 months and then UK for 6 months?

    • ANSWER:
      You cannot extend a visitors visa. You will run into the ‘spent leave’ rule which states that generally entry clearance should not be given for more than six months in any 12 month period. It is to prevent exactly what you are trying to do ie attempting to actually reside in the UK instead of visiting. A visitor visa is for tourism purposes only.

      The spent leave rule means that you cannot hop over to the Continent and reenter to get another six months in the UK, but you could indeed spend six months in the UK and then three months in a Schengen zone country or vice versa.

      If you don’t want to get married, but have been cohabiting for at least two years, you could apply for an unmarried partner visa rather than getting married and applying for a spouse visa. The conditions are identical except that you must provide evidence of cohabitation such as joint rent agreements, bank statements, utility bills etc.

  2. QUESTION:
    UK Visitor in Transit Visa?
    Hello.

    I have a question regarding UK Visitor in Transit Visa.
    I am travelling to London Heathrow from Dublin on 26th July and will stay there in a hotel in Paddington for the day and leave to India (back home) on 27th July from London Heathrow. I will be spending about 36 rough hours in London.
    I would like to know if Visitor in transit visa applies for this?
    Because in the ukba website, while applying online, when i clicked visitor in transit visa, it said the following–

    IMPORTANT NOTICE
    There are 2 types of transit visa. It is important that you select the one most appropriate to your circumstances.
    Direct Airside Transit (DATV)
    DATV nationals must have a visa to pass through the UK on their way to another country. But not to Ireland. This DATV does NOT allow you to:
    Pass through Immigration
    Change Airports
    Transit to Ireland

    Visitor In Transit (VIT)
    Visa nationals whose ticketing requires them to change airports in the UK and where the connecting flight is less than 48hrs between arrival and departure should select this visa.
    Contrary to its title “visitor in transit” you may NOT visit the UK, this visa is solely for the purpose of changing airports i.e. London Heathrow to London Gatwick. Sightseeing, shopping, visiting friends and/or family is prohibited.
    Visit
    Sightseeing
    Shopping
    Visit Friends
    Visit Family

    I am now confused as i planned to take this visa, stay in london for 36hrs and visit many places while i am there.

    I currently hold an Indian passport and have a visit visa for visiting Ireland.

    If anyone could help me out with this, it would be of great help. :)

    • ANSWER:
      The visitor in transit visa does not apply to travels to/from a destination in the Common Travel Area formed by the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, the Island of Man, and the Channel Islands. You need to apply for a general visitors visa to cover your travel plans; fee 100
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visas-immigration/transitthroughtheuk/visa-to-transit-landside/ ..

  3. QUESTION:
    Can an individual with UK visitor Visa travel to Canada?

    • ANSWER:
      A UK visitor visa is valid for the UK – not for Canada. If you want to visit Canada you will need to get a visa for Canada prior to travel. The only country whose citizen need a visa to visit the UK but do not need one to visit Canada is Swaziland. If you are from Swaziland and hold a UK visitor visa then yes, you can travel to Canada. All other UK visa holders need another visa to visit Canada.
      UK visa countries: http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/doineedvisa/visadatvnationals ..
      Canadian visa countries: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/visit/visas.asp ..

  4. QUESTION:
    can u get married on a UK visitor visa?
    Im just wondering if its possible to get married on a UK visitor visa, and marry in the UK while he’s here? also, if possible, can we file for him to stay here after we are married? and how does this work? thanks.

    • ANSWER:
      No. It’s a condition of a visitors visa that you do not intend to marry while in the UK. Immigration Rules state:

      “The requirements to be met by a person seeking leave to enter the United Kingdom as a general visitor are that he:…

      ……(x) does not, during his visit, intend to marry or form a civil partnership, or to give notice of marriage or civil partnership”

      If you come to the UK to marry but do not intend to settle here, you must apply for a marriage visa. Form VAF1F

      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/resources/en/docs/1903073/VAF1F

      If you intend to settle in the UK, you need to apply for a Fiance visa using a VAF4A form.
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/ukresidency/eligibility/partnersandchildren/fianceeorproposedcivilpartner/
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/resources/en/docs/1903073/vaf4a

      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/howtoapply/infs/inf4husbandswivespartners

      You must both be over 21 and intend to live together in the UK after marriage.

      You must be able to prove that you can support yourselves without recourse to public funds. Remember that your partner cannot work on a Fiance visa, and will not receive permission to work until he has been granted the Spouse visa. Both partner’s earnings and savings can be taken into account. You must not be receiving any benefits that are classed as public funds. An explanation of public funds is here.

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/ukresidency/rightsandresponsibilities/publicfunds/

      You must be able to provide proof of suitable accommodation. If you rent, you will need written confirmation of the landlord’s permission for your partner to live there.

      You will also need to show what arrangements have been made for your marriage ceremony.

      Once married, your partner can apply for further leave to remain as the spouse of a UK citizen. If granted, this will be for two years and he will have permission to work.

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/ukresidency/extendingyourstay/applicationtype/flr(m)/

      After two years, and as long as you are still married, your partner can apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR).

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/ukresidency/settlement/

      Costs:
      Marriage visa – 67
      Fiance visa – 585
      Spouse visa – 465 or 665 if applying in person at public enquiry office
      ILR – 820 or 1,020 if applying in person at public enquiry office

      The waiting times for applications by post are longer. UKBA decide 95% of applications within six months while applications made in person at a public enquiry office are usually decided within 24 hours (90%).

      EDIT It’s actually not possible to get legally married on a visitors visa because unless you have a UK birth certificate, the registrar has to see a passport with the relevant visa. i.e. a marriage visa or a fiance visa. If you don’t have one of these, the registrar cannot marry you.

  5. QUESTION:
    UK visitor visas?
    I have a commonwealth citizen staying with me whose Uk visitor visa runs out at the end of December. Because of family illness, we have not been able to visit all the places we wanted to during my friends stay.

    If my friend went back to their Commonwealth Country, what is the likelihood of them being granted a second UK visitors visa? I do not know if there are any restrictions i.e. you can only spend six months in the UK in any one calendar year?

    Any advice from those who have been down this path, would be appreciated. We cannot find t he answer through Internet sites although we have tried,

    Thanks!
    My friend is living with me and has cost the UK not one single penny in any form. It seems that when you try to do things lawfully, you come up against a brick wall and yet only recently the UK Home Office have employed nearly 10,000 ILLEGAL immigrants. How is that for fairness and justice.

    • ANSWER:
      First of all although the visit visa is for six months but normally people who are genuine visitors dont spend the entire 6 months in the UK. The visa officer when issuing the visa makes sure that the person would not take up any job paid or unpaid in the UK or would not even be a burden on public funds such as NHS. I wonder how your friend has been supporting himself these entire 6 months as the cost living, traveling, food etc is so expensive in the UK. One other thing that the visa officer sees while issuing the visa is that the person whom the visa is being issued has strong ties to his native country which obviously does nt seem to be the case with your friend. Definitely when your friend would reapply for the visa these questions would come into the mind of the visa officer and it seems your friend has nt been able to fulfill these basic requirements. Still you can never predict. If your friend goes back and applies for the visa then just keep the fingers crossed and just wait and see. There are no restrictions as such that you cannot spend the entire six months but it definitely makes the weak case in the future.

  6. QUESTION:
    UK student visitor visa doubts?
    I am planning to attend a course in UK for 3 months on a student visitor visa. I was wondering is it possible to apply for a graduate scheme during that period.

    If successful, go back and come on a work permit. Am I allowed to apply and attend interviews during the student visitor visa period? I don’t plan on working during my course of study or after that on the student visitor visa. Only if I have a work permit, then I will work.

    I don’t want to violate the law. I can’t find any relevant information on the website. It’s very contradicting to each other.

    • ANSWER:
      The UK visa system is very specific and very strict. If you are attending interviews arranged before you come to the UK you should strictly speaking have a business visitor visa.

      I think you will find it extremely hard to get interviews for any graduate scheme unless you have proof of your right to work and unless the company in question is looking for very specific and highly specialised skills it can’t find in the UK or EEA. At graduate level that is highly unlikely.

      Bearing in mind that any prospective employer must be licensed by UKBA to employ non EEA nationals and must advertise the post for four weeks across job centre network and in trade and national press and prove that not one single suitably qualified settled worker applied, I doubt any graduate scheme would be interested as they are nearly all oversubscribed with settled workers.

      I don’t mean to dampen your enthusiasm but don’t underestimate how hard it is to get a work visa, particularly if you don’t have highly specialised skills and experience in your field.

  7. QUESTION:
    US Citizen wants a UK Visitor, and Marriage Visa?
    I’d like to know how much the two Visa’s are, and where can I find the infomation about them. I went to the US I’d like to get two visas for the UK. I’d like to get a visitor and also a marriage visa. I am still in the US. I went to the UK but only for one day, I had to come back to the US because I didn’t have the visas. I’ve looked on Travel.State.Gov and I haven’t found much of anything. Can someone help me out? Thanks

    • ANSWER:
      You can’t have two visas for a country at the same time, and you don’t need to.

      US citizens do not require a visa for a short visit to the UK, but that is only if it is for a visit. To visit without a visa, you must do nothing else during your stay – work, marriage etc are all prohibited. You need a marriage visa if you come to the UK to marry, and if you stated that was your intention to the immigration officer, that was why they sent you back. Looking on travel.state.gov is no help at all as you should be looking at the UK Visa web site – see link below. It should be obvious that you need to look at a UK site for information about the UK. The fact that you have already been refused entry to the UK may damage your application, and do NOT lie about this on the visa application form as it will only make things worse.

      If you intend to marry and then return to the USA, the visa costs 67 and the appropriate application form is VAF1F. If you intend to marry and stay in the UK, the visa costs 585 and the appropriate application form is VAF4A. The UK government cracks down hard on people who marry in the UK just as a path to British citizenship as that has happened a lot in the past, and that is why it is so expensive.

      If you intend to live in the UK with your spouse after marriage, the 585 visa is only valid for six months and does not give you permission to find a job. You must get married in that time or return to the USA. Once you are married, you can apply for limited leave to remain on form FLR(M) and this costs a further 465. If approved, this gives you permission to live and work in the UK for another 2 years. If at the end of that time you are still married to the same person, you can apply on form SET(M) for permanent residence (Indefinite Leave to Remain) and this costs 820.

      Ignore what the first answerer wrote about a Certificate of Approval. These are only for people who want to get married, are already in the UK and have permission to stay for more than six months, but do not have Indefinite Leave to Remain. That doesn’t apply to you as the marriage visa acts as the equivalent of the Certificate of Approval.

  8. QUESTION:
    UK general visitor visa?
    I am in UK with General visitor visa for 6 months, and accompanying my husband who is under his Tire 4 student visa ( not an academic student ).
    My visa will expire on 09 September 2013. I am leaving UK before expiry of my UK visa. My quarries are
    1) Can I apply for my general visitor visa once again from India in September 2013 ( as soon as possible) , or I have to wait for 2 months before I apply for my visa.
    2) Is there any rule controls visa holder to stay in UK not more than 180 days in a 12 months period.
    Please answer to my quarries.

    Visa details are as follows:
    Type : C
    From: 9.03.2013 Until: 9.09.2013 Multiple entry .
    Duration: 180 days
    Remarks : C – VISIT

    • ANSWER:
      A type C visa is issued for the purpose of tourist travel or short visits of friends or family. It is not designed for the purpose of residing in the United Kingdom. Hence a new visa issue within less than six months waiting period is more than questionable since in general you cannot stay in a foreign country as visitor for more than 180 days per year. If you want to reside in the UK you should apply for the appropriate visa which would be a Tier 4 Dependant Visa.
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/sitecontent/applicationforms/pbs/pbsdependantspolicy1.pdf ..

  9. QUESTION:
    UK visitor visa?
    i am an international (indian) student in USA, and want to go UK for 2 weeks to visit a friend on tourist visa, what is the procedure, how much is the visa fee, please give me necessary details

    • ANSWER:
      Due to my expertise in US and UK immigration services, I have successfully helped people to get the visas they need at a minimum cost, time and hassle.

      I charge a fee for my services, which is paid through paypal. You need to give me more details about your case;

      on what visa are you in the US? what is your friend doing in the UK? what other nationalities do you hold? etc I will then give you explicit instructions on how to start your UK visa application, where to do it and what to do to get it quickly. your case is a simple one and I do not expect you to face any difficulties.

      Just send me an email to georgia363@yahoo.com if you are interested

  10. QUESTION:
    UK Job with visitor visa?
    I am from India. I have done engineering in computer science. I have 2.3 years of work experience in Exchange servers and active directory. Without MBA or 3 +years of experience (processing time is almost an year from now for me it costs 2 more years) one cant UK visa… Cant afford so much time to move to UK. So I thinking to go to UK with visitor’s Visa find a job n come back make a proper tier 1 visa showing the offer letter N get back.. Will that work..? Does Employers in UK entertain candidate with visitor’s visa..? kindly let me know how i can get jobs abroad sitting in my country itself.. Thanks all

    • ANSWER:
      No, you can’t search for work while you’re in the UK on a visitors visa & a potential employer can’t consider you if you’re on a visitors visa – you also cannot change your status once you’re in the UK

      You ought to try the internet job sites like monster.co.uk or the job site attached to the Guardian newspaper to search for work

  11. QUESTION:
    Applying for a UK Visitor Visa?
    Hi all

    I am an international student studying in Australia at the moment.

    However, I will be soon have holidays to spend and I am planning on visiting my friends in UK.

    Here are my concerns:

    Do I need invitation letter from my friends?

    What documents should I prepare for my visa application? Since I’m not Australian, do I need any documents from my home country?

    Thanks all.

    • ANSWER:
      Hi!

      It is a while since I applied for my Visa and therefore things changed a little. You will find very helpful information at the Home Office website:

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visitingtheuk/visitors/

      Usually, the need for a Visa to come to the UK as a visitor depends on the country your passport was issued (usually the country you were born) and the country where you presently reside. Depending on that, the process might be simpler or more complex and you might need to apply in advance.

      This link could be useful to help you finding out whether you need a Visa or not:

      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/doineedvisa/

      I hope this helps!

  12. QUESTION:
    If i visit the UK with a visitors visa…….?
    and i stay the entire 6 months, if i leave and renew my visa can i come back in a month or so after leaving?

    • ANSWER:
      1. There is no way to extend a general visitors visa beyond six months. You my only apply for an extension if you have been granted leave to stay for 90 days and want to extend that to 180 days (fee 395 or 595 if applied in person).

      2. Whether you may apply for another visa depends on your personal situation. If you should be at an age which usually requires to work and cannot provide proof of financial means that shows that you are not required to work you may get another visa. If that proof however cannot be provided it will be assumed that your stay in the country will be for another purpose than tourist travel and your second visa application will be most likely rejected.

      Source(s):

      http://bia.homeoffice.gov.uk/visitingtheuk/visitors/extendingyourstay/

  13. QUESTION:
    UK General Visitor Visa Question?
    I have two questions regarding the UK general visitor Visa (6-month):

    1) I am planning to visit UK from US and later head out to other European countries(possibly, multiple times) before re-entering UK and flying out. Will the basic 6-month single-entry visa allow this?

    2) I understand that i need to re-apply for a single-entry visa every UK trip i make from US. Can i apply for a new visa before an existing UK visa expires?

    Please let me know if more details are needed.

    Thanks for your time.

    • ANSWER:
      1) UK General Visitor Visa are in general issued for multiple entries.
      A single entry visa becomes invalid once you leave the UK, it would not suit to your travel plans.

      2) If you need a visa to visit the UK you should state that you plan to visit several countries in Europe on several occasions and hence request a multiple entry visa to be issued..

  14. QUESTION:
    UK general visitor visa?
    My UK general visitor visa just expired dated 22.08.2013.I am now in India. I want to reapply General visitor visa(UK) within couple of days period. Is there any rules which says/specifies a certain time duration between expiry and reapplication of UK general visitor visa ??

    • ANSWER:
      There is no rule which specifies a certain time frame between expiry and reapplication for another UK general visitors visa. You can apply for a new visa as soon as your current visa has become invalid. The visa only authorises you to travel to the United Kingdom and to seek leave to enter/remain. For how long you may stay will be determined by a UK Border Agency officer on arrival. In general you may not stay in the UK for more than 180 days per year; however this only applies to those who are retired and have an income. People of young age are subject to entry refusal for plans of an extended stay since they may be considered to not to comply with the general visitors requirements:
      NO WORK OR RECOURSE TO PUBLIC FUNDS ..

  15. QUESTION:
    uk visitor visa???????????
    i would like to know if you can change a visitor visa to a spouse visa without leaving the uk?
    i live in a council house and dont work as we have a small baby, and noone to look after him, if my husband can stay, i can work.
    please any advice?????
    so how else can he stay here?
    if he is granted to say with no working restrictions then i can work.
    and his country will not issue a spouse visa.

    • ANSWER:
      A visitors visa does no allow change of status. In fact, it would be unwise of your husband to even apply as a refusal would cause him problems when he attempts return to the UK.

      Your husband has to return to his country and apply from there.

      If you are not working and are receiving benefits, there is no chance that you will be granted a Spouse visa. You are his sponsor, and as such have to satisfy UKBA that you can support and accommodate him without recourse to public funds.

      A clarification of public funds is on this link.

      http://www.bia.homeoffice.gov.uk/while-in-uk/rightsandresponsibilities/publicfunds/

      As you can see “an allocation of public housing” i.e. council housing is considered public funds.

  16. QUESTION:
    If i want to apply for a uk visitor visa how much money do i need to show?
    Im 26 years old from chile and want to travel to the uk, what documents and how much money do i need to show, my sister lives in the uk but has a residence permit for 5 years and cannot show she can support my stay, i will be staying in her house with my own means. what can i do. please help

    • ANSWER:
      Citizen of Chile in general do not need to apply for a visa for the United Kingdom for a short stay of up to 6 months as tourist or for visiting family or friends residing in the UK. However, if you have a criminal record or you have previously been refused permission to enter the UK you should better apply for a visa prior to travel.
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/ ..

      Although you do not need a visa you should present:
      a valid Chilean passport that covers the period of planned stay
      a landing card showing your passport details and your address in the UK [will be issued on the plane (backed-up with an invitation letter of your sister offering free lodging)]
      documents that show your intend to leave the country after your visit (statement of employer for how long leave has been granted, confirmation of return-flight ticket booking)
      documents that show your intend to stay as tourist/visitor only (itineraries, travel guides)
      documents which show that you that have access to sufficient funds to cover your stay. The UK has not set a minimum of required funds for tourist travel. A student who wants to study at a university in London must have access to at least 800 [~622,000 pesos] per month. A tourist who wants to visit Croatia visa-free must show at least 50 [~32,250 pesos] per day if staying with friends or if accommodation was prepaid.

  17. QUESTION:
    UK Child Visitors Visas for 2 years?
    Has anyone applied for the UK child visitors visa for 2 years? The UK Border Agency were not very helpful when I pointed out the child visa category states that you can only stay up to 6 months (or up to 12 months if they are accompanying an academic visitor). They can study a short course for up to six months.
    So I am unsure what you can do on a 2 year Child Visitors Visa in the way of studying, etc. All the documentation says that you can only stay up to six months on a child visitors visa, none of the documents explain what you can do on a 2 year child visitors Visa with regards to studying, working if you are 16 yrs old etc. I did contact the border agency and was told that they cannot help me to choose a visa. But as you can see I am not asking for help choosing a visa. I want to know what the 2 year child visitors visa offers in terms of what you are allowed to on that visa. There is even a 10 year child visitors visa. Are you supposed to study for a maximum of 6 months and then do nothing for 9 and a half years?
    So if any parents have brought their kids over to the UK on a Child Visitors Visa that is longer than 6 months, if you could advise me seeing as the UKBA won’t.
    Thanks

    • ANSWER:
      The two or ten year visitor visa is a multiple entry visa. It does not give you the right to stay in the UK that long. The maximum time anyone can spend in the UK on a single visit is six months. These multiple entry visas are for use by people who have reasons to visit the UK frequently, such as family connections, business, etc.

      A visitor visa of any type, or any length, only allows you to do just that, visit. It is illegal to work or study on a visitors visa.

      If you are studying on a short course of less than six months you can apply for a student visitors visa. This carries no right to work and as with any student visa, your course must be provided by an approved education establishment licensed to provide courses to non EEA nationals.

      If you wish to study for longer you must apply for a child student visa. This again, carries no rights to work.

      Once you are over 18, you can apply for an adult student visa. Depending on your education establishment and the level of study, you may have the right to work part-time.

  18. QUESTION:
    Reg Transit or Visitor Visa for UK?
    Hi,I am living in USA and planing to visit India this year as well as to visit UK during my journey.I checked in the UK immigration website and I need either a Transit Visa or Visitor visa for my requirement.My question is If I take a visitor visa my luggage weight will differ Is it so?So it means I can not carry 53 kg as per US travel?If I take a transit or Visitor visa?Do I need to checkout or not? Is anybody can share their experience about transit visa or visitor visa for UK.
    Thanks in advance

    • ANSWER:
      US citizen will not require a transit visa in the UK, so you must be another citizenship. Also you cannot “visit” the UK on a transit visa you can only go through the airport. If you wish to stop in the UK to meet people or engage in tourism you must have a visitor visa.

      Visa has nothing whatever to do with your luggage weight, that is purely a matter for the airlines. If your travel originates in the US and you have one single ticket for the entire trip your allowance should not change, whatever it may be. The airline or travel agent should advise you. However if you are originating a portion of your travel in the US and originating (beginning) a separate journey in the UK then perhaps there are different allowances.

  19. QUESTION:
    Can i apply for a uk visitor visa on arrival?
    i am australian with a return ticket home, i am currently overseas and wanting to know if i can apply for a visitor visa to the uk on arrival. Thanks

    • ANSWER:
      You do not need a visitor visa as an Australian citizen.
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/ukvqr?redirect=true&promoId=1910262&reason=Visit&nationality=Australia&location=Australia ..
      You just need to fill out a “landing card” and will be granted “leave to remain” for up to six months as Australian passport holder if you meet the general requirements for a visa exempted visit.
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visitingtheuk/visitors/eligibility/ ..
      The period of your granted stay will be determined by the U.K. Border Agency Officer on arrival.
      http://www.timaticweb.com/cgi-bin/tim_website_client.cgi?SpecData=1&VISA=&HEALTH=&page=both&NA=AU&AR=00&DE=GB&VT=AU&EM=AU&PASSTYPES=PASS&user=SKYWEB&subuser=SKYWEB1 ..

  20. QUESTION:
    UK visitor visa for family?
    I am currently living/working along with my husband in the UK on Tier 1 valid until April 2014. I am now pregnant with our first baby due in May 2013. So we would like to invite my Mom, sister and Parents-in-law. The plan is for my in-laws to visit us in March and will leave a month after the baby is born. My Mum will stay with me for 6 months from May. We currently live in a rented 2-bed house. with the baby arriving, will this be a problem as over-crowding? Also I am not sure how much is the minimum fund we will have to show to sponsor all of them? Any help will be appreciated.
    @ Andi. First of all, thanks for taking time to answer my question in detail. I am fully aware of what you have said in the first paragraph. I should have explained in clearly. While all my family (including in-laws) would like to visit us during the baby is born, it is just impossible to have them all at the same time logistically. Hence we are planning to have my in-laws first even before the baby is born. They will only stay for 3 months maximum and will leave a month after the baby is born. My mum will visit a couple of weeks before due date and stay here with us for a maximum of 6 months and of course they will all be returning home after this as they have things to do back home. When I mean sponsoring them all, I meant giving them a letter of support for accommodation, living expenses etc which i cant do without my docs as proof.

    My concern is the overlap between the two sets of family visiting us, which could be about 2-3 weeks. While I completely understand your suggestion ab
    – out renting a bigger place, I only moved to my current place recently after living in my previous for 3 years.

    • ANSWER:
      you wont be sponsoring them at all – thats not how it works.

      They will be comming as simple visitors
      – they have only tourism reasons to be in the UK.
      They will not be your dependants (they are adults, and full capable).

      And they are not allowed to work (paid or unpaid) as general/tourist visitors.
      So becareful of any suggestion that they will be a home help replacement etc.
      (yes, I know they are family but….)
      Yes, being present as such, and providing moral support,
      and being parents supporting you at this time – fine.

      They can stay for upto 6 months in one go (or 6 months total) in a 12 month period.
      You can offer a letter of support, saying that you will be providing
      accomodation, picking them up and returning them to the airport
      and food / transportation while they are staying with you.

      And all of you need to be indicating the plan you outline
      to go back before the 6 months is up.

      But they are otherwise supporting themselves (officially).
      As for accomodation – that’s kinda you and your families problem !
      If you want to squeeze in, go ahead.
      (though you might want to look at changing to a bigger rental place, esp with the baby comming)

      Passports/visas – baby.
      The baby if born in the UK, does not need a visa (needed only to enter)
      But yes will need a passport (your nationality) to leave and a visa if wants to later return.
      NB. The baby will have the nationality(s) of the parents, not UK.

      So they need to apply for Vistor visas with a letter of support from you,
      inviting them to stay while you are having the baby,
      and listing your offer of accomodation, and transport whilst they are here.

      Family visitor – only for Settled (not temporary) UK residents

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visas-immigration/visiting/family/requirements/

      Otherwise it is (as above) a simple general visitor visa

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visas-immigration/visiting/general/

      Edit:
      Then as above, UKBA will not be interested or even notice that the visit dates overlap.
      The visa (if your parents/ family nationality needs one to visit) will be all that is needed, the application only needs to show
      a) permanent home in their country (house, job etc)
      b) intent/ need to go home (eg long leave from their jobs but need to return)
      c) approximate periods of stay, so that the visa has long enough overall life and periods of individual stay, and if needed multi-entry.

      So long as it was issued, they are free to come and go as the visa allows.
      It is unlikely to be issued for specific dates more usual is 1/2/5/10 year visa with max period of stay of 3 or 6 months, worst would be 1 month (unusual and not likely if they say they are comming to stay with their children having a child before all returning home etc)

      Your letter of support, just indicates that UKBA does not need to worry about if they have enough funds to pay for hotels or restaurants. Your indication of picking them up and returning them to the airport, is useful (indcates no intent to overstay) but like B&B or hotel bookings, no one is inspecting your house. – no documents will be needed, all the documents are from the person applying. It is ‘their’ application only.
      your phone Number and email address should be included in the letter (in case of need – it wont be), and they should have the letter on them when they arrive (just in case their is a query – but unlikely).

      The letter can be a personal one to the people you are inviting saying
      ‘please come, you can stay with us, and will put you up / collect you and provide all your needs etc while with us’
      OR
      a To whom it may concern,
      ‘ this is to confirm that we are inviting xxx (passport ID ) to stay with us in April – July and will be providing all the accomodation , transport and living costs etc, any queries contact at xxxx xxxx’

      Etc. maybe mention to have the family around us etc.
      but format is entirely your choice, it is the content that matters and contact addresses.

      EDIT 2:
      our biggest issue will be health and travel insurance
      getting 30 -45 days per trip time cover is simple.
      getting more than that and over 120 days especially, is a challenge.
      You are employed so get it via your NI payments – but visitors get not NHS rights except to be treated as emergency – you still get a bill.

  21. QUESTION:
    special visitor visa uk?
    I want to apply for a special visitor visa for my fiance to come over here to get married, spend some time with his daughter then return home after 6 months. The problem is im unsure what documentation he will have to provide, is it necessary to provide work details and financial stuff like bank statements? also im unclear what i will need to produce. As im paying for his trip should i do a letter of invitation stating i will be financing his stay and should i include bank statements. As he has ties here, me and his daughter, im worried they will refuse an application for this reason and they may think he will become an overstayer.
    can anybody who is clued up about these things advise me on the best thing to do please.
    catherine….im not his spouse first of all and secondly your comment is a little insensitive. I have looked into it i know what can be applied for, there just doesnt seem to be much information surrounding it regarding documentation.
    Sunshine….you misread the above….he wouldnt be getting married on a visitor visa!! i know this is not possible. The special visitor visa is for specific reasons so in order for permission to marry in the UK the special visitor visa is required. Fiance visa would not be suitable for us as applying for this visa is only if he is planning to settle here and he is not at this stage as he would still need to pass his english exam so there would be no point in applying for a visa that will definitely be refused due to criteria not being met. I have done my homework im no asking questions because i know nothing but because i need a few gaps filled. On that basis i would prefer those with no knowledge to refrain from providing answers that are not relevant
    luddite….im aware i need the correct visa for him to get married and i have stated the correct visa needed but just require certain details…again you have misread the above!

    • ANSWER:
      He can’t marry on a visitors visa. If you want to marry he will need the correct visa before entering the UK. Marrying you won’t give him right of abode in the UK, if he later wants to return to the UK he would need a spouse visa.

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visas-immigration/partners-families/

      ETA: On the contrary I did read your question. The fact you keep referring to obtaining a visitors visa to allow your BF to marry you shows that you have not read the answers or the UKBA website.

  22. QUESTION:
    UK visitor visa question?
    If I am in the UK on a visitor visa, once the 6 months are up can I go to Germany/other parts of Europe for another 6 months and then return straight back to the UK without having to revisit my home country (I’m a US citizen)?
    Also any advice on getting married while there? My girlfriend is a British national/ UK citizen.

    • ANSWER:
      No you can’t. You are allowed to stay for six months, but only in one 12 month period. So if you stayed in the UK for six months, it would be another six months before you were allowed to reenter.

      It’s called the ‘spent leave’ rule and it is there to prevent people from living in the UK on a visitor visa or status.

      To get married in the UK, you need to have a fiance visa or a marriage visitors visa. If you intend to settle in the UK, you need a fiance visa. If you do not intend to settle, you should use a marriage visitor visa. You will need to show one or the other to be able to book a ceremony.

      If you have a fiance visa, this is a six month visa allowing you to marry in the UK with the intent of settling there. You cannot work while on this visa. The conditions are that you are both over 21, have met and intend to live together as a couple in the UK. You must also provide evidence of adequate accommodation and the financial means to support yourselves without recourse to public funds.

      Once you have married, you must apply for a spouse visa. This visa is a two year probationary visa that allows you to live and work in the UK. As long as you still married at the end of the two year period you can apply for Indefinite Leave to Remain (settlement). Once you have been resident for three years, you can apply for citizenship.

      If you get a marriage visitors visa, it is six months visa and you must leave at the end of the period. You cannot change status to spouse visa on a marriage visitors visa.

  23. QUESTION:
    FIND A WORK IN UK WITHOUT VISITOR VISA?
    Hi everyone, im albanian guy who’s living in italy from many years.. i have a visitor visa uk, and i plane to come in uk for find a job.. in the website uk border i read: I cant find a work when i m in uk with visitor visa.. so when im in uk, i want to find for a job and when i find it i comeback in italy and they send me a contract for a work visa… is possibly to do this? any idea? please hepl

    • ANSWER:
      You can’t work, look for work, volunteer or study on a visitors visa, they are for tourism purposes only. No one can even consider you for a job in the UK if you have a visitor visa.
      You need a job and visa before entering the UK and you can only apply for the 90 jobs on the occupation shortage list.

  24. QUESTION:
    Process for UK Visitor Visa?
    I am currently in US (on long term visa) but citizen of another country. We are plannin to visit UK for 2 weeks and need Visitor Visa.
    Question —
    1) In online form, I can see General Single and General Family. I am travelling with Family and so I guess I need to select Family … right?

    2) Once I started the process (as Family), it went through all the steps and finally tried to set appointment only for me ? It di not allow me to enter passport information etc for my spouse and Child .

    Do I need to complete separate applications for me, spouse and child ? How do we ensure that we get the same slot for Biometrics ?

    • ANSWER:
      1) On the online form you can chose between general visitor and family visitor. A general visitor is a tourist, a family visitor visits his relatives living in the UK.

      2) The type of visa application depends on the purpose of your visit. If as tourist it will general visitor, if visiting your family it will be family visitor.

      3) You need separate application forms for each passport holder, you will get the same biometric slots at one of the 129 Application Support Centers in the U.S. based on the fact that you answered the question whether your family members are traveling with you.

      Source(s):
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/resources/en/docs/1903073/VAFguidancenotesvisitors
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/howtoapply/vafs/

      http://ukinusa.fco.gov.uk/en?i=65009&L1=41000&a=41074

  25. QUESTION:
    Anyone here who has or applied for a UK visitors visa?
    I am a German national working in England and my BF who lives in the USA would like to visit me here. He’s a US Greencard holder and would like to visit me for probably a couple of months. He’s in the process of applying for a UK Visitors Visa online. Just want to hear from people who has applied or is in the process of applying for one. What else does he need?
    Thanks

    • ANSWER:
      what nationality is your boyfriend? For a couple of months he might not need a visa at all, but since he’s already applying i’m assuming he does or someone would of told him by now. ( you might want to check this out anyway cause i’m pretty sure as an American green card holder he wouldn’t need a visa if he was coming over for less than 90 days!! but i’m not 100% sure on this)

      For a visitors visa it’s pretty straight forward, you need to prove that he will be staying with you and that you can support him because he will be unable to work or claim any benefits. And also they may ask to see his return ticket. As long as he does’t have any previous conviction lol ( if you’ve seen the application your’ll know what i’m talking about they ask the most stupid questions) Make sure you have all the documention that you need otherwise it wil slow down the process. It might also help if you pre write a letter saying that he will be staying with you while he is in the UK and you will be supporting him, cause most cases they will require some sort of proof.

      You can chooses the date that you wish the visa to start from, i’d applt for the visa asap and it’s coming up to the summer time and alot of people are applying for visitor visa and this could make the application longer.

      Good Luck!!!

  26. QUESTION:
    Overstayed UK Visitor Visa?
    Hi,

    I have a filipino friend who overstayed her visitor visa by 4 years. She returned home in January of this due due to some family problems but know wishes to know if there is a chance that she can return to the UK and if there are any penalties/bans.

    Please advise if u can

    Maria

    • ANSWER:
      funny terminology isn’t it “overstayed visitor visa by 4 years”

      that’s hardly a slight oversight of a few days or even weeks, that sounds like a very deliberate and illegal act

      so she will not be welcome back for at least 10 years and even then the visa authorities will have doubts based on the past record

  27. QUESTION:
    My UK Family Visitor Visa Got Rejected?
    Hi, I was going to UK to visit my husband in Uk as he is studying there for 15 to 20 days and my parents were funding for my trip.I submitted all the financial docs of my parents but got rejected as i dint submit my original marriage certificate and plus they also want my husbands bank statements and accommodation. Original marriage certificate is ok but why do i need to submit my husbands documents when my parents are sponsoring my trip.I really want to go to UK to meet him I don’t know what to do weather i should reapply or appeal and also want to know what all documents should i submit again and by what time. Am also working in a company which i have recently joined 1 month back and i would be needing a letter from my employer as well stating tat am going thr for a vacation and would come back to join the organization so do I need to submit my offer letter as well? …otherwise in that case they would ask me for salary slips and my parents are funding me for my travel and expenses and I want to keep the nature of my application same as the first one otherwise it mite again get rejected. I don’t know what to do?:((
    He is on Student Visa and am going there for 15-20 days..
    Thx for your answers friends I just want to know that i have a joint account with my mother whic is also in my name and my mothers name, but there my father’s surname on the account so can i submitt that to show my bank statements and also i have one more account on my name(Husband’s Surname) but which i activated just a month ago but i dont think i can show them this account as i have recently activated this account.Is it okay if I show enough funds in this account will the purpose be solved.please help?

    • ANSWER:
      Reapply, don’t appeal. You cannot submit documents at appeal that should have been submitted with the original application and in any case you are applying for the wrong visa.

      A family visitor visa is used when someone is legally resident in the UK and sponsoring a family member. Your husband cannot sponsor you on his student visitor visa.

      You need a normal visitor visa and should prove that you can support yourself for the duration of your stay. This means that although your parents are paying for the trip, you must have funds in your own bank account or available credit on your credit card ie the money must be in your name. You need to submit your own bank statements and a letter from your parents or other proof of where the money for the trip has come from.

      You will need a return ticket and proof of ties to your home country. This is where the letter from your employer comes in. It should confirm your employment, the dates of your agreed vacation and the date you are expected back at work. Obviously this should correspond with the return ticket.

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visitingtheuk/visitors/documents/

  28. QUESTION:
    Switch from UK visitor visa to youth mobility visa?
    I have discovered that it is possible for the home office to back date a Youth Mobility Visa by 3 months, so for example if one were to return to Canada when the 6 months visitors visa ends in March, apply for the YM visa to commence in September and then return to the UK in July under a standard visitors visa can one simply remain in the UK until the YM visa commencement date begins?

    Can one also get married whilst on the YM visa and switch to a spouse visa without leaving the UK?

    Many thanks!!
    Ah sorry, back dating is the wrong wording……

    I meant that the UKBA canpostdate your visa to start up to 3 months later

    • ANSWER:
      Backdating ?
      never heard of that,
      All visa’s are issued on the day they are confirmed (at the end of the assessment).

      If applying from within the UK
      your status until the new visa is accepted or rejected, is just extended.
      i.e. whatever it was before application – it does not change untill the date of the new visa (even if the old one expires due to the application taking time to be processed)

      Enter as a visitor – you remain a visitor.
      leave and re-enter with a new visa – you now have that status.
      It is the visa/passport ID that you use to enter a country that matters,
      not any other that you may hold.

      the 2/3 problems you will have are
      – you have to be in a country of residence to apply
      (and where they will return the visa to)
      – you will have to supply your passport with the application
      (so what will you travel on ?)

      – There is (specifically) no way to change from a visitor status entry to any other without leaving the country (i.e. cannot apply from within the UK).

      If you should manage to get a YM visa, yes, you can get married on it.
      -> You can marry on an visa that is longer than 6 months in the UK, or
      on a marriage visitors visa (70 pounds)
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visas-immigration/visiting/marriage-cp/
      to be honest it that is your plan, why not just get one ?
      Then marry, leave and apply (from home) for a Spouse visa.
      (or even better, get a fiance visa – and remain and convert to a spouse visa)

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visas-immigration/partners-families/citizens-settled/spouse-cp/ – Marriage to settled UK residents

      Even if you do marry, the spouse visa (applied from within the UK) has exactly the same requirements as applying from outside. So entering using a YMV does not help ?

      You would also have to be aware that if you tried to use the YM visa as bypass for the fiance visa (eg because you thought it was cheaper !), then you would most probably be interpretted as comitting visa fraud – you never intended to use the YM visa for the its true purposse. That visa would be invalidated, and you would have a bad immigration record in UK and all the countries (eg Europe) that the UK shares them with.

      So YM visa, and later meet and settle with someone – not a problem
      plan to abuse the YM (and there are only a limited number per year anyway), and problems.

      So decide what you ‘real’ plan is, and do that.
      and/or how you will get 2 passports…

  29. QUESTION:
    Visitor Visa – UK? HELP!?
    I am aware that one can visit or study within the UK for 6 months without a visa.
    I studied abroad October 3rd, 2011 – December 18th 2011. This is roughly 3 months.
    I read on another post that you have to wait an entire year after the “6 month period” to get this visa again, no matter the length of your stay in the 6 month period.

    I wish to study abroad again in the UK for 5 1/2 months beginning in December 24th, 2012 – onward.

    Is the feasible?
    Thanks for your input.

    • ANSWER:
      The post you have read has provided nonsense information. As a national of a country which is exempt from the visa requirement you may be granted to stay in the UK as tourist, business visitor, family visitor, or student visitor for up to six months within a year’s period. Hence if you have been in the UK for three months in 2011 you can return for another up to six months as student visitor from July 2012 provided that you meet the entry requirements.
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visas-immigration/visiting/student/visa/ ..

      I have never heard of any course that commences on Christmas Eve ;-)

  30. QUESTION:
    UK Visitor Visa?
    Does anyone know the time gap between two consecutive visits on Visitor Visa to UK? I know that on one visit the visitor cannot stay for more than 6 months.

    • ANSWER:
      There is on time gap between visits. You can go out of the country and come back next day and probably you will be given another visitor visa. (This is if you do not need a visa to enter the country on the first place). However, it might get a little bit suspicious as most of the visitor visa do not permit you to work in the UK, so immigration might ask them self’s; where does he get money from for all this long visits?!

  31. QUESTION:
    Current circumstance for UK visitor’s visa?
    I am a Canadian permanent resident applying for a UK visitor’s visa. The application asked for my current circumstance, i.e. full-time employed, student, unemployed, etc.

    In my case I am currently unemployed but I am registered as a full-time masters student at a Canadian university. However, classes won’t start until September 8, 2009. I recently got a certificate of enrolment from the university and it indicates that I’m a full-time student.

    The application also asks if I’m working part-time or full-time while studying. In my case I’ll be working as a teaching assistant and research assistant at the university once classes start, but not at the moment. These are part-time work.

    So my questions are:
    1) Am I allowed to mention that I’m a full-time student even though I haven’t started classes yet?
    2) Should I mention that I’m not working while I’m studying to reflect my current situation?

    Any help is much appreciated. Thanks in advance.
    I probably should have added this earlier, but I have a sister who works as a full-time research assistant at a university in London. If she were to give me a sponsor letter would that help?
    One more detail: Last year I had applied for a UK visitor’s visa and was granted the visa. Back then I was employed full-time.

    • ANSWER:
      Confirm you are currently unemployed but bring the proof of Uni enrollment and work placements with you when you apply for the visa and when you enter the UK.

      The UK immigration people are going to be concerned that you a) intend to leave at the end of your stay and b) that you can support yourself financially while you are in the UK.

      For a) Return ticket and certificate of enrollment to Uni in September. If you can get a letter confirming your work appointment in Septemberas well that’s even better.

      For b) Letter from your sister confirming that she will be accommodating you during your stay and proof of sufficient funds for the duration of your stay (bank statement, credit card bill showing limit etc).

  32. QUESTION:
    toddler Re-entering UK using visitor visa?
    I am on a work permit visa and it will expire on15th July 2011. My employer is going to extend it for me. My son is 2 years old and is now in the UK using a 6-month visitor visa and will expire on 1st May 2011. I want to make him to be my dependant when i apply for the extension. However the problem is that the earliest date for making the application is 5 weeks before the existing work permit expires. My question is can i bring him out of the UK on 30th Apr 2011 and go the France for a few days then bring him back to the UK and then to get a new visitor visa stamp?

    • ANSWER:
      No. The trip to France will leave you with a major problem. You can only spend six months out of 12 on a visitors visa. If your son has already spent six months in the UK, he will not be allowed to reenter for another six. You cannot extend his visa, nor can he switch into a dependent visa from a visitor visa inside the UK. A visitor visa is for tourism and leisure purposes only and should not be used as a way around the visa rules for residence which if effectively what you are doing.

      Your son will have to return to your own country of residence and apply from there.

  33. QUESTION:
    uk visitor visa from california?
    I applied for UK visitor visa from california (online).. I recieved an email that my application is been processed.. it has been 30 days i got no emails from the uk about my visa.. according to the website it takes 5-15 days . any body knows the answer

    • ANSWER:
      Up to 15 days is for priority processing. All other applications can and often do take longer.

      Even if you did pay for priority, they may be back logged. They may have found something in your criminal record or background check. All the British consulates just finished processing student visa’s. Could be any number of reasons. You just have to sit and be patient.

      If you are an American citizen, you do not need a visitors visa for a visit to the UK.

      Donna

  34. QUESTION:
    UK visitor visa for my south african wife?
    My wife and I(UK citizen) wish to visit the UK for the first time as man and wife to see my family. My wife was refused a fiance visa in 2007 and refused entry in 2008, which is when i left the UK to return to SA with her.

    We now just want to visit for a week, so what visa do we apply for before booking our tickets?? Is it a family visa or standard visitor?? We now live in Taiwan and this is where we will return when the holiday is over, thanks in advance

    • ANSWER:
      It depends where you plan to stay during your visit. Should you have booked a hotel you need to apply for a general visitors visa (VAF-1A). Do you stay at your parents/relatives home apply for a family visitors visa (VAF-1B) and have your parents/relatives send her an invitation letter and copies of the picture pages of their U.K. passports. A spousal visa only applies of you would plan to settle in the U.K., not for a one week visit. You do not need a solicitor based in the U.K. to apply for a visa from Taiwan.
      http://www.vfs-uk-tw.com/applying.aspx ..

  35. QUESTION:
    UK general visitor visa?
    My UK general visitor visa just expired 22.08.2013.I am now in India. I want to reapply General visitor visa(UK) within couple of days period. Is there any rules which says/specifies a certain time duration between expiry and reapplication of UK general visitor visa ??

    • ANSWER:
      You are allowed to spend 6 months in any 12 months on a visitor visa, so if you have already spent 6 months in the UK then you have to wait another six months before you apply again for a 6 month visitors visa

  36. QUESTION:
    Is the Sponsor’s bank statements enough for address proof ? (for UK visitor visa)?
    My brother stays in UK. I am applying for visitor visa to meet him. Is his bank statements or council tax bills enough for his address proof or i have to provide his tenancy agreement too ??
    Apparently his tenancy agreement is expiring in the mid way of my stay in UK. So will my application be refused in tat case ??

    • ANSWER:
      An ‘affidavit of support’ is an official document which can be obtained by a host in certain European countries from the local government. It proves that the host has the financial and space capacities to accommodate and board foreign guests. In certain countries the host additionally assumes full responsibility for all costs that should arise to the government due to the visit (to include deportation in case of illegal overstay). However this system is not applied for in the United Kingdom.

      To apply for a visa with the category family visitor you need to provide proof of your brother’s legal stay in the U.K. and a letter of invitation and sponsorship covered with his recent bank statements (six months) showing his capacities of accommodation and board.

      Document requirements:
      Evidence of the family member(s) in the UK that you intend to visit. This could be a copy of their bio data page (the page containing their photograph) from their UK passport or EEA passport/ID card; or if they are not a UK/EEA national, evidence of their permission to stay in the United Kingdom e.g. copy of letter granting leave to remain from the Home Office, copy of stamps/visas in their passport(s) along with a copy of their bio data page (the page containing their photograph) from their passport, etc.
      Letter from family member/sponsor, supporting the visit.
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/howtoapply/infs/inf2visitors#564054582 ..
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/resources/en/docs/1903073/supportingdocsvisituk ..

  37. QUESTION:
    Can I apply for a schengen visa in UK (London) with student visitor visa?
    I am international student who is studying in London now. I need to get schengen to visit EU.
    Is it true that I can’t apply with visitor visa, I ask because some of sources says that I can.
    And if it is available, please could you tell me which countries of schengen agreements have more loyal rules with visas for foreigners?
    The expiration date of my student visitor visa is the end of may.
    Thanks in advance!

    • ANSWER:
      Visitors in the UK who require a Schengen visa really are in a catch-22 situation. It has no relevance whether you hold a general visitors visa, a business visitors visa, or a student visitors visa valid for up to 180 days.

      The Schengen legislation requires a visa applicant to be legally resident in the country of application (article 6, 1. EU visa code). A holder of a UK visitors visa for up to 180 days is not considered to be legally resident.

      However, an application may be accepted from a person legally present but not residing – in the jurisdiction of the consulate where the application is submitted, if he can justify why the application could not be lodged at a consulate in his place of residence. It is for the consulate to appreciate whether the justification presented by the applicant is acceptable (article 6, 2.).

      The visa application however requires a passport and a UK residence permit or visa which must be valid for at least another three months beyond the proposed stay in the Schengen zone. Hence if your UK visa expires end of May you could only stay in Schengen until the end of February.

      For a visa application, if accepted, it might be necessary to consult the Embassy in your home country before a visa can be issued. I remember to have read that this may take more than 30 working days; in other words it may take until the begin of March before you get the visa approved, however you could only travel till the end of February.

      You cannot apply for a visa as you please. The application must be lodged at the Embassy of the country in which you plan to stay the longest time (main destination). If no main destination exists it will be the Embassy of the country of initial entry to the Schengen zone.

      Make the Netherlands either main destination or first entry country and try to get the visa through their commercial Visa Application Centre run by VFS global. Attach a letter explaining that you could not apply for the visa from your home country since you were not able to meet the requirements of article 9. 1. (applications shall be lodged no more than three months before the start of the intended visit).

      http://nl.vfsglobal.co.uk/familyvisit_faq.html ..(read Q.11)
      http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:243:0001:0058:EN:PDF ..

  38. QUESTION:
    UK Visitors Visa for a SA citizen?
    Hi there. Im a 27-year old SA citizen. I want to go visit my friend in the UK for 2 weeks (15days). I just need as much information as possible to prepare me for the visa application process, because I heard it’s getting damn hard to be granted a visa, only if it’s just a visitors visa.

    Here’s more information:
    I have a full-time, ok-paying job, which I’ve had for almost two years (July will be two years). I don’t have a helluva lot of savings though, but I get a good salary (couldn’t save cause of student loan, car payments etc that im busy paying off). I’ve got my flight ticket (return, so I can show my return flight) … (maybe booking the ticket before I got the visa was not such a good idea but with the Soccer WC flight tickets are soaring so I though I’d be better off getting one a.s.a.p)

    I’ll be staying with my friend, so I won’t have accommodation to pay for. We won’t be moving around much, maybe see a bit of Wales, but other than that just being in and around his place. What I want to know is: I’ve been hearing (and reading) horror stories of how people are refused a visa, and if they get the visa, being refused entry at the airport because of the UK emigration rules that was tightened (which I understand and have respect for b.t.w)

    Will I have to prove that I can support myself for these two weeks (even though I won’t be paying hotel bills, will be staying with him, and if we go to Wales, he said he’ll pay the accommodation) and if I will need to prove that, how much would be ‘sufficient funds’ for two weeks in the UK?

    Last question, the letter from my employer saying I ve got a job to come back to, what should be stated on the letter?

    Aaaaany other information, tips, whatever will be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance guys!
    Erm… To mister Lam below, I’m not in a bad credit position and I’m not looking for a loan, thanks.

    Guys, all I meant was I don’t have thousands of pounds to show if it’s gonna be required for me to show that I can support myself (Thing is, I won’t need a lot of money as we’re not gonna do much travelling and Im staying with my friend so I won’t have any accommodation fees to pay – we’re just gonna have 2 very lazy weeks, no travel itinerary or anything)
    Also…what type of questions will be asked in the interview?
    Oh for crying out loud! Im NOT looking for a loan! 3 People have offered me a loan. This has got nothing at all to do with my question…?!

    • ANSWER:
      You really do not have to show thousands of pounds or rands; it is more important that you can convince the U.K. Consular Officer that you plan to return home after your visit.

      This can be done by:
      providing the reservation or booking of a return flight ticket
      providing a letter from the employer stating for how long leave is granted and when you are supposed to be back for work; it also should state your position, since when you are employed, and your monthly/annually gross earnings.
      providing proof of other social or economical ties to your country.
      A married person can easier prove ties than a single; someone who takes care of her/his parents and has engaged a nurse for a fortnight also proves social ties; holding a honorary post or being engaged in the community of residence may also justify social ties.

      Concerning the financial capabilities it will be adviseable to get a supporting letter from your U.K. friend stating that accommodation and maintenance will be provided.
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/howtoapply/infs/inf3sponsors#Q5 ..

      If you are going to try to justify the financial capabilities on your own you will also need to provide prove of income (pay slips, bank statements, income tax statements). The U.K. Government does not determine a fixed amount of funds required as other European countries do; sufficient funds are required. The French Government requires visa applicants to hold at least the amount corresponding to the minimum daily wage allowance of an employee in France. At present this amounts to 62 [~ 55/R630]. Since both countries have about the same cost of livings this could be a general guidance about required financial capacities.

      And finally..there will not be a visa interview in general. Visa applications are decided based on the documents provided with the application. A personal interview is only required if the Consular Officer is in doubt whether to issue a visa or not.

      I’m sure you have read the information of the VFS visa application center, if not I’ll just attach them here:
      http://www.vfs-uk-za.com/applying.aspx ..

      I wish good luck for your visa application!

  39. QUESTION:
    no visitors visa from phil. to uk?
    is it ok to travel to uk without any visa?im from phil. my fiancee is from uk and we plan to travel in uk together then ill be back to phil. after 3months. .

    • ANSWER:
      You will have to have a visa or they will not allow you into the country.
      You will need to visit the UK embassy in the Philippines
      Here is the address and contact info

      20 Upper McKinley Road
      McKinley Hill, Taguig City 1634
      Makati City
      Metro Manila
      Philippines
      Phone:
      +63-2-858-2200
      Fax:
      +63-2-858-2313
      +63-2-858-2342
      +63-2-858-2305
      Email:
      ukinthephilippines@fco.gov.uk
      info.ukph@vfshelpline.com
      Website URL:

      http://ukinthephilippines.fco.gov.uk

      Here is what you will need

      Original, signed Philippines passport with at least 6 months of remaining validity.

      Passport-type photographs: 2

      Itinerary. Copy of round trip tickets or itinerary.

      Property papers. Property papers if possible

      Bank Statement. Copies of bank statements from the past 6 months.

      Tax Return. Most recent federal tax return, including the tax payer copy.

      Employment Letter. A letter from your employer/school (on business letterhead, with contact details), stating that a leave of absence has been granted and that you will be returning to your current job. If you are self-employed, include a copy of your business license and tax return. If you are retired please submit proof of your retirement fund.

      Hotel Reservations. Copy of the Hotel Reservations, OR

      Personal Invitation. If visiting friends or family, you must provide letter of invitation with the contact information of the host and visitor, purpose and duration of the visit, confirmation of accommodation including the address, signature and date. You will also need to provide proof of the host’s status in United Kingdom ie. copy of their United Kingdom passport’s information page, or, if they are not a citizen of United Kingdom, copies of their United Kingdom residence permit and their national passport’s information pages.

      Hope this helps :)

  40. QUESTION:
    Wrong UK visa category- family visitor or general visitor?
    Hi there, My parents in India applied for visitor visa under family visitor category, I am staying in the UK
    for about 10 months on tier 2 COS. Can you please let me know if their visa application can get rejected as they should have applied under general visitor category? The categories as defined are not very clear. The VFS office has accepted the application and they have done their biometrics.
    Please advise at the earliest. Many thanks.

    • ANSWER:
      I just went through the UKBA website. Don’t take me wrong, I am not being judgmental, but you are in the UK, and you should have cleared an English exam (like IELTS) to get the visa. The categories defined are VERY CLEAR. Each point is clearly explained there in a VERY simple language.

      This is the page for family visitor:

      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/visas-immigration/visiting/family/requirements/

      It clearly says:

      Additionally the family member you are visiting must :

      be a British citizen;
      be settled in the UK;
      have been granted asylum in the UK; or
      have Humanitarian Protection status.

      You are none of these. Hence your parents CANNOT visit you on family visitor visa. You are there as a migrant worker under the points based system and do not hold a PR. So you are not “settled in the UK”. It is explained on the right side of page under “Terms explained”.

      Also, under the same category, if you click on documents required, there is a link to the supporting documents guide. I clicked on it and page 3 contains details about supporting documents. It clearly states: “….if they are not permanently settled or have asylum/humanitarian protection in the UK, then you should apply as a general visitor and complete VAF1A.”

      When you applied for the visa, you must have filled out form VAF1B. On the FIRST PAGE itself, it says, HIGHLIGHTED in blue: “If you are visiting any relatives not listed above OR if they are not permanently settled in the UK you must not complete this form”. The form also has guidance notes at the end.

      Then again on page 7 where they have to fill your details (the family member they are visiting) it AGAIN clearly says HIGHLIGHTED: “You can only apply as a Family Visitor if you are visiting a family member listed below AND they are permanently settled in the UK.”

      I don’t think it can get any clearer than that. Well, you shouldn’t fill and sign a form without reading it. VFS India is a crooked company and will accept any application for money. But once it is sent to the High Commission, it will be rejected.

      They should have applied for the general visitor category.

      Now you would have to ask them if you can withdraw the application at this stage and apply again. Else you’ll have to wait till they reject the application and then reapply again. Unfortunately, under both circumstances, you’d have to pay the fees again, and also get the biometrics etc, everything again.

  41. QUESTION:
    UK general visitor visa?
    My UK general visitor visa.I have got 6 months visa.My visa just expired dated 22.08.2013. I am now in India. I want to reapply General visitor visa(UK) within couple of days period. Is there any rules which says/specifies a certain time duration between expiry and reapplication of UK general visitor visa ?

    • ANSWER:
      In most visitor categories, the maximum length of stay in the UK is 6 months. So as you have already had one 6 month visa, you will have to wait otherwise you are likely to get refused as they may think you want to remain in the UK for other reasons. I think it is 6 months in any 12 month period. Check with the UK embassy near you.

  42. QUESTION:
    How to prepare for uk visitor visa interview?

    • ANSWER:
      A UK visitor visa interview will only be scheduled for those who have failed to provide a straightforward application package with all required documents. Make sure you convince the UK Border Agency officer that you plan to leave the country after your visit based on your documents provided and you do not need to prepare for an interview.
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/sitecontent/documents/out-of-country/visitors.pdf ..

  43. QUESTION:
    UK General Visitor Visa (Multiple Entry)?
    I have a multiple entry UK General Visitor Visa till November 5, 2009. Got the visa in the first place to attend a summer school, which I did, and I came back. I recently came to know about a workshop in London which I’d like to attend.

    My visa says multiple entry, but I wonder if there would be an issue? I mean this time I would be traveling to attend another conference (not the one on the basis of which I applied for the visa).

    I’ve written to the British High Commission, but no response so far.

    Reason for cautiousness: Pakistani nationality.

    • ANSWER:
      There are some racist people on this board, they can’t compete with educated immigrants and are probably unemployed so they give you racist responses. Yes, the visa was issued for a different purpose, but under your circumstances you have been previously cleared and should not have a problem getting another one. Or they may allow you to use the one you have.

      Edit: I noticed you said it is a visitors visa; it should still be good. Ordinarily, you are not given a visitors visa to attend schools, even for short periods of time.

  44. QUESTION:
    Can I extent my general visitor visa from UK?
    I am an Indian citizen, currently in the UK on a 6 month General visitor’s visa.,which will expire on 11 th September. Now I want to stay more time with my husband who is on his Tire 4 student visa. Can I extant my visa (General visitor) visa from UK ?

    • ANSWER:
      No. Your visa is for 6 months and you cannot extend that visa while you are in the UK.

  45. QUESTION:
    UK visitors visa application time?
    I have applied for UK visitors visa on 5th march 2012 from Pune, india. Uptil now i have not received the visa and I believe they dont take long time for visitors visa… when can I expect to get my visa? how much visa processing time is needed?

    • ANSWER:
      99% of all general visitors visa applications were processed within 10 working days In February 2012.
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/countries/india/processing-times1/?langname=UK English#resultTableAnchor ..

  46. QUESTION:
    UK visitor visa or vistor in transit visa?
    I am an Indian national living in the US (H1-B visa – work visa). I am planning to visit UK for less than 24 hours (~8 hours) in the time available between my flight arrival (from US to UK) and departure (from UK to India). I don’t need to change airports for my flights. Will I need a “visitor visa” or a “visitor in transit” visa?

    • ANSWER:
      You will need to apply for a general visitors visa [fee 78 or 9] if you want to visit the UK (pass immigration) en route to India. Transit visa only apply to those who either stay airside (Direct Airside Transit Visa) if a visa is required [U.S. visa holders do not need that type of via] or who need to proceed to a different airport.
      http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/countries/usa/?langname=UK%20English ..

  47. QUESTION:
    Can I sponsor my husband over to the UK on a visitor visa first and then apply for a spouse visa?
    Hi I am going to apply for a spouse visa for my husband in 6 to 7 months but before I do that I need to work for that long in order to app Lu.
    Everything is set I will start my job soon, but the thing is I have never been away from him for that long and I’ve heard it coul stake longer than 6 to 7 months. So in order for me and our 2 month old to not be away for each other for maybe 10 months or more (or less nothing is for certainty) I’m thinking of sponsoring him over here on a family visit vi as.

    Will I be able to do that? Can someone please shed light on this bearing in mind I previously applied for a spouse visa but it got refused on the basis of not enough salary.
    Can someone please help me out I have been married for 3 years now but me and the baby are here and there and we just want to settle down now.
    Correction! /// I’m trying to get used to this new ipad thing!! I meant 2 year old not month##

    • ANSWER:
      He cannot change status within the UK from visitor visa. If he can enter on a visitor visa, he must return home promptly & then you can apply for a spousal visa for him. Furthermore, are you familiar with the new support requirements? And the current rates are expected to increase shortly! You need to earn enough to support a household of 3, plus have a home for all of you. And you cannot be receiving or have received any public benefits, so that means getting a home on the private market, not council housing.

      Since a spouse visa was previously refused, expect your finances to get a thorough scrutiny to ensure you can support a household of 3. And unless you have gotten some serious education, experience & are starting a really good job now, meeting the new income requirements could take you a lot longer than 6-7 months. You need a longer track record on the job than that.

  48. QUESTION:
    requirements for 1 year visitors visa from US to UK?
    what are my chances of being approved for a 1 year visa if I intend to stay for 9 months?

    I cannot apply for a spousal visa until I’m 21 which will be in 9 months, I’ve stayed in the uk this year for 5 months, I have a 1 year old daughter who has a british passport and my husband is english, i do not want to seperate them for 9 months but i cannot imagine not having my baby with me so she will have to travel with me

    what are my chances of being approved for a 1 year visitors visa? we do intend to travel around england and europe would I have to send an itinaery of my plans?

    I’m american

    • ANSWER:
      None. Sorry to be so blunt but with an English husband, you stand to be refused even the standard six month visa as you will be viewed as a risk of being an over stayer. As it stands if you have already spent five months in the last 12 months in the UK, you may only be allowed a further one month as a result of the ‘spent leave’ rule which states that generally a visitor should not be permitted to remain in the UK for more than six months in any 12 month period. I must stress that this is guidance and not a hard and fast rule.

      It’s really rough on you both, but you are unlikely to be granted 9 months under the circumstances as you would effectively be taking up residence in the UK, not just visiting for a holiday.

      You may stand more chance of being granted a visa if you have a really firm itinerary and you can spend up to 90 days in the Schengen countries, perhaps show that you intend leaving the UK for another country rather than returning to the US.

      Do apply for your visa before you come. Don’t risk refusal once you land in the UK.

  49. QUESTION:
    For UK visitor(student) visa, are they automatically all multi-entry?
    When I applied for UK visitor(student) visa, I did not specify for single/multiple entry. I got my multiple entry within 6 months. I wonder do they automatically grant people multiple entries in this case?
    thanks!

    • ANSWER:
      UK visa are different from the ones issued by the United States. They usually grant multiple entry visa since lots of students want to visit other European countries on the weekends or during holidays. The visa are however only valid during the specified time on the visa; you may not stay any day longer as the expiration date of the visa. The U.S. visa system is different, you may gain entry on the last date your visa is valid and the immigration officer decides for how long you may stay.
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/faqs/5167621/2969427 ..

  50. QUESTION:
    UK transit visa over visitor visa (Indian citizen)?
    I have an Indian passport (citizen), valid H1B visa stamped in the passport (USA work permit) and a UK visitor visa. I was in London a few weeks ago and am flying to India now via London. Wondering whether I can re-enter London during my to and fro layovers (9hrs and 20 hrs respectively) on my visitor visa without filing for anything else? My visitor visa is valid for another 5 months.

    Thanks in advance!

    • ANSWER:
      Yoi may seek entry to the United Kingdom as long as your visitor visa for the U.K. is still valid. Once it is gotten invalid you will still be able to travel via the United Kingdom (based on the U.S. visa) but you will need to stay airside in the international transit area.
      http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/en/doineedvisa/visadatvnationals ..


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