Forex Signals

There are plenty of investors that think betting on China is as close to a sure thing as there could possibly be. The only problem is that investing directly in China’s economic freight train is complicated, opaque, and sometimes impossible. The Chinese government maintains strict capital controls, prohibits foreigners from directly owning certain types of [...]

The Chinese Yuan has touched a new high, at 6.69 USD/CNY. Given that the Yuan has still only risen about 2% since the peg was officially loosened in June -  with most of that appreciation taking place in the last couple weeks – there still remains intense pressure on China to do more.
Last week’s intervention [...]

The frequency of my reports on the Chinese Yuan is admittedly much higher than it used to be. Why? Call it disbelief. More than two months have passed since China revalued its currency, and after a rapid 1% appreciation, the RMB has actually fallen back. Today, it stands only .5% higher against the Dollar compared [...]

Today marks the one-month anniversary of China’s decision to remove the Yuan’s peg to the Dollar, and allow it to float. Now that the news has had a chance to wend its way through the financial markets, I think it’s time both to reflect and to forecast.
Over the last month, the Chinese RMB has appreciated [...]

It was only last week that I mused about “Further Delays in RMB Revaluation.” Lo and behold, over the weekend, the Central Bank finally budged, by pledging to the members of the G20 that it would ” ‘proceed further with reform‘ of the exchange rate and ‘enhance’ flexibility.” Upon reading this, I suppose I should [...]

Throughout 2010, I have continuously reported on the apparent inevitability of the Chinese Yuan appreciation. That the currency still remains firmly fixed in place against the Dollar is a testament not only to the unpredictability of forex, but also to the doggedness of Chinese officials.
 
It seemed that China’s policymakers were all but set in February to [...]

Even before the sovereign debt crisis in Europe damped confidence in the world’s second most important reserve currency, the Chinese Yuan was on the cusp of being accepted as a global reserve currency.
We’re all familiar with the arguments attacking the Yuan in this context: its currency is pegged, its capital controls are rigid, and its [...]

Given that only a week has passed since the bailout of Greece was formally unveiled, it’s still too early to determine whether the plan will be success. Regardless of how it ultimately plays out, though, the bailout (not too mention the concomitant crisis) is shaping up to be THE big market mover of 2009. As [...]

There are no words to describe the size of China’s foreign exchange reserves. Massive, Mind-Boggling, and Eye-Popping come to mind, but don’t do the $2.447 Trillion justice. What’s more, this figure represents the end of March; the current total has almost certainly surpassed $2.5 Trillion.
Interesting, the rate of reserve accumulation has slowed markedly from 2009. [...]

The hoopla surrounding the semi-annual release of the Treasury’s currency report has been awkwardly resolved. As a result of Chinese Prime Minister Hu Jintao’s last minute decision to participate in a US conference on nuclear disarmament, the Treasury has agreed to delay the release of the report for an indeterminate period.
While a handful of commentators [...]