Posts Tagged ‘Expectations’
EUR/USD spent the day consolidating after peaking at 1.3183 yesterday. If the technical traders are right, we may have seen the high for a long while and the completion of a technical retracement which began from 1.2624 (16 Jan). However we’re not totally convinced and we cautiously think 1.3244 may be the top if 1.2950 [...]
The Euro started out the week with much hope and promise but that quicklly faded after German officials dampened the mood surrounding the Euro debt crisis talks. Over the weekend, the G-20 voiced their own hope that Euro leaders would be able to come up with a plan by the end of the Euro summit [...]
Source: ForexYard
This afternoon’s investment data from Treasury International Capital (TIC) revealed worse than forecast growth in foreign investment levels for domestic, long-term securities. The TIC Long-Term Purchases report measures the difference between domestic securities purchased by foreign investors and foreign securities purchased by domestic investors.
A positive reading represents a higher level of foreign investment in [...]
This is what Central Banks are effectively saying to the marketplace. Recent actions and comments are starting to show what some of us already know– that Central banks alone cannot manage the global economy and the artificial conditions they create only impede and prevent the real economy finding its way.
Overnight, the Bank of Japan did [...]
Quotable
“What if everything is an illusion and nothing exists? In that case, I definitely overpaid for my carpet.”
Woody Allen
Commentary & Analysis
Running for the exits of ephemeral fundamental expectations!
Earlier in the year when JR and I did our “Best Guess” Issue for 2011, aka our “Forecast” Issue, we talked about the key linkages in the global [...]
From trough to peak, the Euro has risen 9% over a period of only two months. You wouldn’t ordinarily expect to see this kind of appreciation from a G4 currency, especially not one whose member states are on the brink of insolvency and which itself faces threats to its very existence. In this case, the [...]
Source: ForexYard
A day prior to the US Non-Farm Employment Change report, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet set the stage for the first European interest rate increase since the financial crisis.
Economic News
USD – US Dollar Gains on Weekly Unemployment Data
A significant drop in weekly US unemployment claims helped spur dollar gains versus the [...]
I read a great piece by HSBC Chief Economist guru Stephen King that appeared in the Financial Times this morning, “Trigger-happy central bankers risk wrecking the recovery,” *Note: We often consider things great when they are aligned with one’s own world view; which is the case here; as I too think developed world central banks [...]
So the ECB’s 3m LTRO ended up with a larger take up than expected, causing short-dated EONIAs to collapse (see chart below, white), and so, of course, the Schatz yield (orange) decided it was in fact not going to follow. This is a common frustration for TMM – it’s difficult enough getting the Macro right [...]
With earnings season at hand, many investors are ready to reassess whether their dollars are being put to the best use and whether their bets will pay off down the road.
Investment professionals use a company’s price/earnings ratio to gauge the market’s expectations for earnings growth. A high number indicates that the market has trumped up [...]
