Forex Signals » Makes

USD/JPY Makes An All-Time Low!

admin — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 00:29:12 +0000

USD/JPY made an all-time low last Friday, just touching below 76 for the first time before bouncing back higher. This has prompted the rhetoric to pick up, as the BOJ further threatens intervention. However, it is likely that the BOJ won’t do anything until after Bernanke’s speech on Friday as the world waits to see if QE3 is launched by the Fed.

If so, then the rush of Dollar-selling could be too much for the BOJ to attempt to thwart, though it is unclear exactly what will happen. A counter-intuitive argument could be made that things look so bad that the necessity for QE3 actually induces the flight to safety trade and rush to the Dollar. This scenario is improbable however, and USD/JPY could further weaken adding pressure on the BOJ to act.

The best case scenario for Japan would be for the Fed to ditch the calls for QE3, which could cause the Dollar to strengthen, though other world markets could sell-off which could strengthen the Yen as well.

It’s not a pretty picture for the BOJ!

Ugly Buck-ling Makes the Dodos Look Good.

admin — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 02:24:29 +0000

Quotable

You’re sound-byte-mining quote of the day comes from Jimmy Rogers discussing agriculture …

“In America– one of the agricultural states the average age of farmers is 58 years old … in ten years, if they’re still alive, they’ll be 68.”
Jimmy Rogers

Commentary & Analysis
Ugly Buck-ling Makes the Dodos Look Good.

Maybe the European Central Bank hikes interest rates again as soon as June.

Maybe the US Congress will continue to butt heads on deficit reduction plans.

Maybe the Federal Reserve will resort to some new form of economic stimulus, aka QE3.

Maybe investors expect affirmation of the Fed’s accommodation ad infinitum now that Ben Bernanke has agreed to do 4 post-FOMC “media briefings” each year.

Maybe all is right (or will be made right) in this world and there is no reason to be scared of any risk assets.

Whatever the reason, the US dollar is clearly the big loser right now. Besides potential risks to the global economy, there are no hints that anything driving the dollar lower will change substantively anytime soon. So why not place your bets while the odds are still in your favor, right?

The euro has made a strong move after a big down day to start the week; it’s now at new 15-month highs. The pound has done similarly.

GBPUSD Daily: after testing its 50-day moving average earlier in the week, the pound is breaking convincingly above resistance. (The fact that the Bollinger Bands have narrowed also indicates a potentially powerful breakout move.)

GBPUSD Weekly: there is about 500 PIPs upside potential before the next important resistance level comes into play. That level is about $1.70 which is the high mark for the pound since the financial crisis-induced collapse sent it reeling from $2 to $1.35 in a mere 6 months time.

The pound has been relatively suppressed versus other currencies for good reason. But with the way the US dollar is looking, there seems to be good reason to expect pounds at $1.70 soon.

Versus the euro, however, the pound has seen a slight advantage since 2009. The downward sloping trend shows that. But it also shows the euro is working to win back favor as EURGBP has broken above the upper bound of that range:

If you like the idea of ECB rate hikes, think the risk of Eurozone periphery default or bailout or restructuring is overplayed, then long EURGBP might be your horse.

If you’re worried about Greece et al, then perhaps GBPUSD is a more comfortable bet for you.

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Lopez Holdings Corporation (LPZ) Makes A Swing Up

admin — Mon, 18 Apr 2011 03:20:02 +0000

Lopez Holdings Corporation which used to be Benpres Holdings Corporation hit the 2nd place in today’s most active stocks in value traded. For those who do not know, this company serves as the holding company of the Lopez family for investments in major development sectors such as broadcasting (ABS-CBN) and cable (Sky Cable); telecommunications (Bayan Tel); power generation and distribution (First Philippine Holdings, Energy Development Corporation); and banking among others.

LPZ which is its stock symbol in the Philippine Stock Exchange went up today by 5.19% to PHP5.67. This gain propelled the breakout from the 1-month symmetrical triangle chart pattern with heavy volume. Based on the size of this of this triangle, we could get a minimum upside target price of PHP6.10 within a month as seen in the chart above.

In the bigger picture, the 1-month symmetrical triangle apparently looks like the handle of a 4-month cup and handle formation. This could also look a like an inverted head and shoulders or even a rectangle pattern for others. Regardless of what this consolidation may look like, as long as the PHP5.75 resistance gets cleared out, we could get a conservative target price OF PHP6.90. I got this by adding the height of the consolidation to the possible breakout point. However, before it gets to that level, it first needs to clear out the 11-year all-time high of PHP6.60. In case things don’t go well for the stocks, the immediate support could be the 2-month uptrend. If that breaks, the next support could be the 2-year uptrend.

Practice makes perfect

admin — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 17:30:31 +0000

The Fed continues to test its tri-party repo facility, one of the methods it plans to use to drain liquidity from the banking system when the time comes for the Fed to shift policy.

Let’s hope the tests are going well and the begin using the facility in earnest before long…

QE2 looks very likely to come to its scheduled conclusion in June; any shift toward tightening is expected to be months away at this stage.

S&P500: What makes a frustrating market?

admin — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 03:12:52 +0000

By Adam Hewison – The S&P 500 is turning out to be a conundrum for many professionals
and home traders alike. The conflicting information on good earnings,
high unemployment, and other factors continue to batter the market.
One moment the SP500 is heading for the stars and the next, it’s
heading to the cellar.

So what’s a trader to do?

In my new video, I share with you some steps you can use to help
improve your trading in the S&P 500 and other markets. The new video
is approximately 3 minutes long and it will show you several key
areas and levels that I am looking at.

As always our videos are free to watch and you do not have to register.

I would like to see your feedback on how you see the market, as so many
traders are becoming frustrated with the lack of real follow-through in
either direction.

Watch the SP500 video now…

Enjoy the video and all the best,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder MarketClub

USD/JPY makes all the difference…

admin — Fri, 28 May 2010 04:44:43 +0000

Throughout Thursday’s U.S. trading session, momentum in the USD/JPY was key to confirming the rally in equities. Unlike the early equities rally on Wednesday morning – accompanied by little-to-no selling of Yen – Thursday’s price action proved Yen was being sold, which rallied the USD/JPY above the prior resistance between 90.50 and 90.65.

The rate at which Yen is sold determines risk appetite and risk aversion. Generally, when Yen is being sold it indicates that traders want to borrow that currency to fund the purchase of higher-yielding assets; when Yen loses ground against the U.S. Dollar, it drives a move higher on the USD/JPY. The same can be said of the EUR/JPY: as the battered Euro gains on the Yen, the EUR/JPY moves higher.

Prices have rallied through the resistance of an Ascending Triangle pattern at 90.67 – this price was the buy trigger for an Initial Movement-Momentum entry, the type of entry that is ideally set up with a low, one- to three-bar Initial Trend reading (which confirms that prices are moving in a sideways range). As we see from the low one-bar Breakout reading, very little momentum accompanied the pattern break; however, with Autochartist’s Forecast area waiting nearby between 91.02 and 91.49, it’s likely that prices will reach the bottom of that range.

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USD/JPY makes all the difference…

admin — Fri, 28 May 2010 04:43:54 +0000

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USD Makes Record Gains; NFP Expected to Accelerate USD-Growth

admin — Fri, 07 May 2010 03:10:49 +0000

By Greg Holden – Another new month brings with it a fresh Non-Farm Employment Change report from the US government. No doubt many investors have been watching the riots unfold in Greece, bailout packages getting solidified and a shocking plummet in the value of the EUR and Crude Oil. The USD has surged to 1-year highs against a number of currencies, the EUR primary among them. This makes tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report even more significant.

The American economy appears to be a short-term safe-haven for investors who feel uncertain about the Euro-Zone. As a result, any positive news coming out of the US may help to facilitate this perception and add strength to the Dollar. This is precisely what we’re expecting tomorrow with the NFP report.

Expectations are for a growth, in the non-farm sector of the American economy, of 197K jobs. A forecast which may indeed be accurate, even underestimated, given current conditions. Last month we saw a growth in NFP by 162K jobs, and most data we have says that employment has only improved since then. Temporary hiring and long-term employment are both up. Jobless claims and layoffs are both down. Wednesday’s ADP report was better than expected. Safe-haven status of the USD and falling oil prices guarantee stronger buying power of American firms, thus further growth. And lastly, the unemployment rate has held steady in the face of systemic layoffs around the globe.

As stated before, any positive data from the US should lead to a strengthening of the safe-haven status of the USD. If the NFP report comes inline with forecasts, give or take a few thousand jobs, the USD will likely continue to mount record gains against its rivals going into next week. It appears as if tomorrow’s data can only help the Dollar, even if worse than forecast results are given.

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